Welcome back to another edition NHL Predictions. Each day our writers here at Last Word on Hockey take a look at the games and give analysis. Our team break down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then make predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, the New York Islanders will take on the Columbus Blue Jackets. Don’t forget to check out all the action, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2024-25 season.
NHL Predictions
New York Islanders vs Columbus Blue Jackets
Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)
TV: MSGSN, FDSNOH
This matchup will feature two Metropolitan Division rivals going head-to-head. Just one point separates these two in the division standings. Coming into tonight the Islanders have lost four of their last five. Through nine games New York sits in sixth place in the metro with a 3-4-2 record. Furthermore, they sit one point behind the 4-3-1 Blue Jackets who are in fifth. The valuable two points will be on the line inside the Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio. This will be the first of three matchups between the two this season. In the last ten meetings between the teams, the Islanders own a 9-0-1 advantage and have won the last three meetings.
The Islanders Story
For the Islanders, they continued to show offensive inconsistency’s in their game last night, a 3-1 loss to the Anaheim Ducks. In another frustrating loss where the Islanders outshot the Ducks 41-22, but they could only cash one goal in. This game was eerily similar to the 1-0 loss against the Detroit Red Wings last week where the Islanders outshot them 30-11. The most recent disappointment comes after two games in a row where they scored three. Moreover, their 21 goals this season has them ranked 31st in the league. The one goal the Islanders did score came on the power play. That unit was 1/4 and simply hasn’t been good enough as they currently rank 29th at 13.3%. They would like to get more from their best player Mathew Barzal. Despite scoring the lone goal last night, his first on a goalie, he still doesn’t have a 5v5 goal this season.
The defence bounced back in the Ducks game, holding them to only two goals on 22 shots. The only problem is the penalty kill is just as bad as the power play. One empty net and two power play goals is what beat them. This drops their penalty kill percentage to 62.5%, 31st in the league. Therefore, they have been wasting great play from their goaltender Ilya Sorokin. After last night he is 2-2-1 and has stopped 122 of 131 shots for a .931 save percentage. He owns a 1.80 goals-against average. However, he has been given one goal of support or fewer in three of his five starts. The two starts he got more have been wins. After playing game one of this back-to-back, they will turn to struggling Semyon Varlamov and hope for a bounce back. He has a 1-2-1 record with a .856 SV% and a 3.72 GAA.
The Blue Jackets Story
For this edition of NHL Predictions, the Blue Jackets come into this one riding high after an offensive explosion in a 6-1 win over the Edmonton Oilers. Columbus came into this season with not much expectations but they have played well to start this season. They have alternated losses and wins in their first eight games. Offensively they rank dead last in expected goals for at 14.08. Despite this, they still rank among the leagues best in goals for with 4.13 per game, good for fourth in the league. They are led by their young draft picks turning into budding stars. Kirill Marchenko, a second-round pick from 2018 is off to a hot start with a team leading 11 points in nine games. In addition, a pair of first-round picks also are contributing nicely as well. From the 2020 draft Yegor Chinakhov is a point-per-game with eight in eight games. Finally, Adam Fantilli from the 2023 draft has five points through eight games.
Defensively, things have been solid for the Blue Jackets as well. Led by veteran Zack Werenski, another one of their first-round pick this time from 2015. He is point-per-game with eight in eight games. The team ranks 15th in goals against with 3.13 per game which is middle of the pack. Their underlying numbers are even a little better than that. They rank seventh in expected goals against with 16.34. This comes from limiting opponents quality chances. They rank 22nd in high danger shots against with 16. On the other hand, their goalie tandem of Elvis Merzlikins and Daniil Tarasov have been okay. Evlis has been the better of the two sporting a 1-2 record with a .900 SV% and a 2.76 GAA. Daniil with a 3-1-1 record, a .886 SV% and a 3.42 GAA.
NHL Predictions
In a game where both sides are desperate for the two points, this one will come down to Islander defence versus the high-flying Blue Jackets offence. We don’t think the Islanders offence will be able to score enough to keep up with Columbus, putting the pressure on their defence to hold them off the board. Furthermore, that thought process factored with New York having to travel on a second of a back-to-back and it is not promising for them. The signs are pointing to the Blue Jackets snapping their losing streak against the Islanders in this one.
Prediction: Blue Jackets win 4-2
Prop Bets
Fanduel has the Blue Jackets money line at +136, we like the underdog at home in this one. The over/under is 6.5, considering the slow Islander offence it will be up to the Blue Jackets to hit that over, we don’t think that happens so take the under. As far as anytime goal scorers for the Islanders Kyle Palmieri has been hot and we think he scores one here. For the Blue Jackets, veteran centre Sean Monahan has been good on their top line and we think that continues here.
Main Photo Credit: Aaron Doster – USA TODAY Sports
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