On Tuesday, the St. Louis Blues signed forward Jake Neighbours to a two-year contract. The contract is worth $3.75 million a season. While the deal has benefits, it also has risks. In short, the contract extension is a classic example of a two-faced situation.
I Have Always Wanted a “Neighbour” Just Like You
Last season, Neighbours had his breakout season, scoring 27 goals. The Calgary native showcased the offensive potential that was suggested in his scouting report. As the summer began, people had two questions on their mind. What were the expectations for Neighbours following his breakout season? Would the Blues consider an extension? We have seen the Blues offer long-term extensions to budding stars in the past. For example, Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou each got one. It made sense to think Neighbours may get one as well. As it turns out, Neighbours does get an extension, but not a long-term deal. This changes the entire situation and makes it two-faced.
The Good Face Starting With the Bridge Deal
Contract extensions in the one-to-three-year range, such as these, are referred to as “bridge deals.” They are called that because the contract creates a “bridge” from their restricted free-agency seasons to or close to their unrestricted seasons. In a bridge deal, a young player is locked up for a few seasons so a team can see the potential for said player. What is their ceiling? Is this a superstar in the making?
For Neighbours, this bridge deal is the Blues way of showing they are interested in him but want to see if he can sustain and build off last year’s success. Is Neighbours the real deal or is he a one-hit wonder? This contract gives the Blues the flexibility to continue to evaluate Neighbours before making a decision about his long-term future. If he shows he is the real deal, then the Blues can confidently offer him a long-term extension. If he is not, then the team has avoided making a long-term investment to someone who is not worth the money.
Chess and Not Checkers
This move is also a strategic move by general manager Doug Armstrong. Quite frankly, it is a genius move and it keeps Armstrong one step ahead of the rest of the NHL.
Without the bridge deal, Neighbours would be a restricted free agent each of the next three seasons. This would have allowed teams an opportunity to tender an offer sheet to Neighbours and possibly take him from the Blues. Considering Armstrong tendered offer sheets himself this past August, there was a lingering chance teams, especially the Edmonton Oilers, may want to return the favour. If you wonder whether or not that actually happens, remember the name Jesperi Kotkaniemi and his $20 signing bonus. Yes, teams are that petty. Yes, Armstrong is a marked man following his offer sheets.
By giving Neighbours an extension now, Armstrong is playing chess instead of checkers. When the contract expires, there will still be one more year left of restricted free agency, but by then, Alexander Steen will be the general manager of the Blues and will know what he wants to do with Neighbours at that point.
Turning to the Bad Face and the Subject of Money, Money, Money
There are risks that go along with this decision. The biggest is the price the Blues will have to pay if Neighbours does show he is a star.
If the Blues had signed Neighbours to a long-term deal today, it would ranged from six-to-eight years in length. As far as the money goes, Neighbours would have gotten in the ballpark of $6 million a season. Perhaps $7 million at the most. Instead, Neighbours is getting $3.75 million for two years.
When the contract expires and if Neighbours proves himself, he will want a salary higher than $6-$7 million. In his mind, he would have already forfeited two years he could have made more money on an extension. He will naturally want to make that up in his new contract. Furthermore, the salary cap is expected to rise these next few seasons. This means there will be more money for teams to spend and more money for players to demand.
Regardless of his asking price, the Blues are likely to extend him if he proves himself during this bridge deal. In fact, if he has enough strong season this year, he may get the extension this summer. The sooner the Blues do it, the more they save.
Armstrong Has Made His Choice
We have called this a two-faced situation. There are good parts to this contract and risks. At the end of the day, Armstrong examined the opportunity cost and decided it was better to spend more money in exchange for getting another look at Neighbours while securing his place on the team. Given the offer sheet situation, this does seem like the right option. Armstrong appears to be playing chess instead of checkers, even at the expense of the team’s pocket book.
Main Photo Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel – USA TODAY Sports
