Welcome to the latest edition of NHL Predictions. Each day, our team here at Last Word on Hockey breaks down head-to-head matchups and other key elements that may influence the outcome of each game. We also have a featured game of the day, which is considered must-watch TV. This NHL Predictions article analyzes the Dallas Stars and the Buffalo Sabres.
NHL Predictions
Dallas Stars vs. Buffalo Sabres
Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)
TV: Victory+, ESPN+
The Dallas Stars head back to the East Coast after suffering their first loss of the season in Washington, D.C. last week. This time, they will face the Buffalo Sabres, the team it beat for the Stanley Cup in 1999. Because of that series, there has been some animosity between the fanbases.
The Stars (5-1-0) were an outstanding road team during the 2023-24 campaign, tying the Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers for the most road wins in the NHL and posting a nearly identical record on home ice. Dallas has only played twice on the road this season, beating the Nashville Predators in the season-opener and losing to the Washington Capitals.
Buffalo (2-4-1) sits near the bottom of the Eastern Conference after seven games but does have a nice win over Florida at home and just beat Chicago on the road. Each win was started by a different goaltender and featured a goal from forward Tage Thompson. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 37 shots against the Blackhawks and has made the most starts for Buffalo this season.
Dallas Stars Story
Dallas’s 5-1-0 start is impressive, especially considering it played six games in nine days to open the season. It’s not easy to build up the stamina that quickly and maintain it well enough to sustain a hot start like that and continue with a dominant performance against the Edmonton Oilers in a rematch of the Western Conference Finals.
The Stars beat Edmonton 4-1 on Saturday behind three third-period goals and big games from forwards Matt Duchene and Roope Hintz. Duchene scored Dallas’ first two goals and snapped an 0-for-16 power-play drought in the second period. The win also gave head coach Pete DeBoer his 617th win, tying him for 21st all-time and giving him a chance to break the tie against Buffalo.
Dallas has only played two games away from the American Airlines Center, with Casey DeSmith and Jake Oettinger splitting the starts in goal. Despite DeSmith’s loss to Washington, the Dallas goalie tandem leads the NHL with a 1.50 goals-against average. Oettinger will get the call on Tuesday.
The team will also get forwards Sam Steel and Tyler Seguin and defenceman Matt Dumba back from injuries. It’s as close to fully healthy as Dallas has been all season. Steel will strengthen an already great penalty kill that leads the NHL in penalty kill percentage. Seguin deepens the lineup with his scoring prowess and skill on the second line. Dumba adds balance and can help run things on the power play if asked to do so.
Buffalo Sabres Story
The Sabres opened the season in Germany with two games against the New Jersey Devils as part of the NHL’s Global Series. They dropped both, only managing two goals, and did not collect their first win until a week later against the Panthers.
Since that day, scoring has not been an issue for Buffalo. The Sabres have scored at least four goals in each of their last four games and are 2-1-1 over that stretch. Forwards Alex Tuch, JJ Peterka, and Tage Thompson have been red-hot to start the season. Each has at least a point in six of the seven games they have played, and Peterka and Thompson are tied for the team lead with four goals apiece.
Buffalo needs to find consistency at the goaltender spot. Luukonen and Devon Levi have split the reps so far, each coming up with one win but struggling to keep the Sabres in most games. Interestingly enough, Levi is 1-0-0 at home while Luukonen is 0-2-0 in Buffalo. Will that trend continue or is it just a coincidence?
NHL Prediction
Buffalo will have to be at its absolute best to stick around in this one. Its scoring ability can be enough to keep things close, but Dallas is the deepest team it has played so far. The most surprising thing is how well the Stars’ new-look defence has played in most games, even though it has slipped up a bit in a couple games. If the Sabres can find ways to take advantage of those slips, they will give themselves a chance. Expect plenty of offence in this one but the better team on paper to prevail.
Prediction: Stars win 4-3.
Prop Bets of the Night
The way Hintz and Tuch have been playing, +400 from Bet 365 for each player to have multiple points seems like a good place to start. Each player has two multi-point games this season. Another appealing prop is Tyler Seguin at +230 to score at any time. He had two goals in the three games he played before getting injured.
Main Photo: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
