Welcome back to the return of NHL Predictions. Each day, Last Word on Hockey takes a look at games happening and gives our predictions. Highlighting key elements that we think may influence the outcome of the game. For this installment we will be making predictions on the New York Islanders Vs the Detroit Red Wings.
NHL Predictions
New York Islanders Vs Detroit Red Wings
Time: 7:45 P.M Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)
Tv: Madison Square Garden Network, Bally Sports Detroit, ESPN+
This matchup between two eastern conference opponents will take place on Long Island at UBS Arena. It will be the first time these teams have met this season. They will meet two more times in November. Last season the Red Wings won the season series 2-1 against the Islanders.
These two teams have both struggled to produce offense in the early going this season. The Islanders are 26th in the league in goals for per game with 2.60. The Red Wings are not much better sitting three spots ahead in 23rd with 2.80. The defense could be where this game is won and lost.
The Islanders Story
We have already touched on the Islanders lack of goal scoring to start this season. They are near the bottom of the league in goals for per game. Add in the fact that their powerplay percentage is 26th in the league at 12.5. Combine those two things and you’ve got problems offensively. Things won’t be getting any easier as top line winger Anthony Duclair is now expected to be out long term with a lower body injury. He went down in the third period of the Islanders last game, a 4-3 win over the Montreal Canadiens in a shootout. Duclair was off to a hot start with his new club with three points in five games. He was brought over in free agency to help fix the offensive struggles. Now, Simon Holmstrom, the teams first round pick from 2019, is set to replace Duclair on the top line.
All that being said, they still have a 2-1-2 record with points in each of their last three games. Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat, Kyle Palmieri, and Brock Nelson all have three points through the five games. Outside of the top six guys, the rest of the lineup is struggling to produce making them top heavy. With a struggling offence they have at least been playing good defensively. The Islanders sit 10th in the league in goals against per game with 2.80. Their Russian goalie Ilya Sorokin has been great in his two starts with a .953 save percentage and a 1.48 goals-against average. He is expected to get the start in this one which bodes well for the Islanders.
The Red Wings Story
Detroit snapped a two game losing streak with a 5-2 win over the Nashville Predators in their last game. They show a lot of similarities to the Islanders. They struggle to produce offense as highlighted before. The offensive production they do get comes from their top lines. Those top lines are very talented and can hurt you from all over the ice. Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond all lead the team in points with four in five games. These three man the top line. In addition, they have Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko on their second line. They might not be the players they once were, they still can beat you on any given night.
Where these two teams differ is on defence. The Red Wings while struggling offensively have also struggled on defence to start the season. They rank 21st in goals against per game with 3.40. Allowing teams to shoot at will against them ranking 13th in shots against with 171. Despite all the shots against, both of their goalies have been playing well. Starter Cam Talbot who has a .907 save percentage, a 3.31 goals-against average and one shutout to his name. Backup Alex Lyon who has a .938 save percentage and a 2.06 goals-against average. It is unclear which one will get the nod in this game but they both are solid.
Prediction
It’s now NHL Predictions time. There are a lot of similarities between the two teams. They both are top heavy with a lot of skill and talent in their top six. Despite that they both have struggled to score goals not just at 5v5 but on the powerplay too. The edge the Islanders have comes from defense and that could be the deciding factor. We expect a grind it out low scoring game. In the end the defense and home ice advantage will lead to the fans on the Island going home happy.
Prediction: Islanders win 4-2
Prop Bets of the Night
It wouldn’t be NHL Predictions without prop bets. FanDuel is listing the over/under on this game at 6.5 which we think is way too high, take the under. On the Islanders side of things Mathew Barzal is at +195 for any time goal scorer. He only has one goal on the season so far which is unlike him, he’s due to pot one. For the Red Wings, Patrick Kane is at +240 for any time goal scorer. He has zero on the young season and he’s scored in each of his last two games against the Islanders. He is due to score and routinely does so against the Islanders so we expect him to get on the board in this one.
Main Photo: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images
