Igor Shesterkin‘s contract extension is on the horizon, and the New York Rangers can’t afford to overpay him. The New York Post and the great Mollie Walker released a story on September 20th about New York Rangers goalie Igor Shesterkin’s contract situation. Thus far, Shesterkin has downplayed the situation, instead keeping his focus on the upcoming season. It’s been no secret that the Rangers success comes down to mainly two things: goaltending and special teams. And so now, the Rangers enter a precarious situation. Igor Shesterkin is deeply entrenched in the conversation for best goalie in the NHL. It will be his goal to have his next contract reflect that premier status. The Rangers, as currently constructed, cannot afford to lose a player of his calibre, but can they afford his exorbitant asking price?
Where Things Stand Now
Negotiations between team and player seem preliminary, at best. Coming off a strong regular season, he finished with a 36-17-2 record and a 2.58 goals against average and .913 save percentage. Moreover, Shesterkin was even better in the playoffs going 10-6 with a .927 SV%. Whatever leverage Shesterkin has now, it is probably as strong as ever right now. Thus, it comes as no surprise that initial reports say Shesterkin’s camp is asking for as much as $12 million a year. This amount would make him the highest paid goalie by a mile and a half.
Will Igor Shesterkin be the highest paid goalie in the NHL? 💰
(via @FriedgeHNIC, 32 Thoughts) pic.twitter.com/dTVESplWg7
— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) September 6, 2024
Does Shesterkin deserve such a higher number? Absolutely. In the past 20 years, the Rangers have fallen victim to a very simple formula for success, and that formula has been, and continues to be, goaltending. It started with Henrik Lundqvist. How fortunate are Rangers fans to go from a Hall of Fame goaltender to a Russian star on track for a similar fate? Having an elite goalie between the pipes can cover up any warts. Furthermore, it’s a foundational piece of the Rangers’ make-up and has more times than not bailed them out of bad situations.
Considering Shesterkin is a Vezina Trophy winner and has two additional top-ten finishes in Vezina voting (including a top-5 finish), the case for his camp’s demands grow stronger. Excluding Carey Price’s extension from 2018, the top contracts in the NHL (per Spotrac) at the goaltender position are as follows:
- Andrei Vasilevskiy: eight years with a $9.5M AAV;
- Sergei Bobrovsky: seven years with a $10M AAV;
- Ilya Sorokin: eight years with an $8.25M AAV;
- Juuse Saros: eight years with a $7.74M AAV;
- Connor Hellebuyck: seven years with an $8.5M AAV.
Those are the elite of the elite, and the list still excludes Shesterkin. But the cost of those contracts go beyond the simple dollar value. When evaluating the risk and reward of a contract, one must also examine the percentage hit one’s contract has on a team’s payroll. Vasilevskiy’s cap hit currently sits at ten percent for the Tampa Bay Lightning. Bobrovsky’s cap hit for the Florida Panthers, Stanley Cup and all, is above 11% this year and will be 10.9% next year. Sorokin’s reaches no higher than 9.4% but no lower than 9% throughout the duration of his deal, and Hellebuyck is in a similar range. The most friendly of the aforementioned deals is Saros’ extension, with the next three years taking up 8.4% of the Predators’ cap.
So a precedent has been set for top-market goaltenders. Shesterkin and his camp, however, don’t want to meet that precedent. They’ve made it very clear that they hope to set a new precedent.
How Much is Too Much?
Igor Shesterkin’s contract extension is going to be a difficult piece of terrain to navigate. Shesterkin’s final year of his current contract has the Russian star at a modest 6.4% cap hit for the 2024-25 season. That’s currently the sixth-highest cap hit on the team. If you take Shesterkin’s demands at face value, $12 million a year would be worth more than Artemi Panarin’s $11.6 million, which currently makes up 13.2% of the Rangers’ cap. Goalies getting paid is not a foreign concept in the NHL. Goalies getting paid as much as Igor has asked for? That’s an entirely different story.
In listing the highest paid goalies and their cap hits, we excluded Carey Price from the discussion. We’re all familiar with his story, one of the greatest goaltenders to take to the ice whose career was derailed by injuries. It seems more and more likely that he will never play a game again for the Montreal Canadiens. Therefore, why mention Price? Because only he, Vasilevskiy, and Bobrovsky have cap hits that are at least 10% of their team’s salary cap. Three Hall of Fame goalies, two of which are Stanley Cup champions.
Has Shesterkin earned a similar contract? In all honesty, yes. Shesterkin has been a human highlight reel ever since his arrival in the Big Apple. Opponents and teammates admire him in equal measure, and are more often than not frustrated by his ability to keep the puck out of the net. However, that doesn’t mean the Rangers can throw a blank cheque at him to get him to sign on the dotted line. Business, as Ranger fans have realized, is a shrewd entity. General manager Chris Drury has proven as shrewd and tactile as a businessman as there’s been in the NHL. Just ask Barclay Goodrow and, to an extent, Jacob Trouba.
Proceeding with Caution
If Igor Shesterkin’s contract extension is a mega-deal, it will be simply maintaining the status quo for the Rangers. It’s the exact formula the franchise implemented under the Lundqvist years. Having that safety net in your own zone is a boon few teams possess, but the Rangers have proven that goaltending can’t be your sole identity.
The Rangers can’t keep leaning on their goaltending. They have to start making active efforts in fixing their flaws. What are those flaws? Well, the Rangers have been a mediocre team at 5v5 impacts for the last several years. No amount of Shesterkin acrobatics can save them when their group of forwards struggle to put the puck in the net.
The Rangers had the best goalie in the 2024 NHL playoffs. And what good did that do them in the end? A six game exit in the Eastern Conference Final? The Edmonton Oilers made it to the Stanley Cup Final with Stuart Skinner. No disrespect to Skinner (three percent team cap hit), but elite he is not. Looking at the past Stanley Cup winners and excluding those contributions by Bobrovsky and Vasilevskiy, the list of remaining goaltenders is good but not elite: Adin Hill, Darcy Kuemper, and Jordan Binnington. When Vasilevskiy signed his big extension, he had already delivered the Lightning one Stanley Cup on a $3.5M salary.
As currently constructed, do the Rangers need Igor Shesterkin? Absolutely. But that’s part of the problem, isn’t it? In an ideal world, the Rangers success wouldn’t hinge so much on their goaltender. But the Rangers haven’t been living in an ideal world in decades. The Rangers, sooner or later, will have to fundamentally alter their roster to be more than just power play merchants. Riding the hot hand of their goalie is not a sustainable way to win.
The fear is that if the Rangers are unable to talk down Igor Shesterkin from such a high price point, caving to his demands could be a decision the Rangers will regret it for years to come. The Rangers have been an incomplete team for some time. No amount of goaltending, not even Jacques Plante or Georges Vezina or Ken Dryden themselves could fix it. Igor Shesterkin’s contract extension cannot exceed 10% of the team’s cap hit. It would be detrimental for a team’s future bereft of a Stanley Cup. Afterall, it’s been 30 years.
Main Photo Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
