The Ottawa Senators veteran forward Claude Giroux is beloved by his hometown fans. It is no wonder really, as Giroux is from the Northern-Ontario region, as he was originally born in Hearst, Ontario. It has been a welcome breath of fresh air, for Giroux to play near home at the tail end of his career. However, there are a few factors influencing his personal situation as well as the club’s. In any case, regardless of what the future brings in terms of the team, we can try to forecast Giroux’s output for 2024-25. So, let’s look at Claude Giroux‘s prospective stats going into the 2024-25 NHL campaign.
Analyzing Claude Giroux’s Stats for the Purpose of Prediction
Claude Giroux is an offensive player, and as a result, his performance is largely driven by stats. Therefore, whether the Sens make a playoff push, or end up deciding to reward the veteran with a chance at a Stanley Cup run by trading him at the deadline, we can get a clear picture of his value ahead of the season, and what to anticipate for potential return or impact. If we go based on his chat with the crew on Coming in Hot, the club and he remain optimistic of the season ahead.
Claude Giroux’s stats have been very dominate throughout the entire NHL for a long-time. If we look back to the NHL players with the most points since 2007, only ten have recorded 1000 points since that time. Giroux (1066) sits eighth nested in between recently retired Joe Pavelski (1068) and Toronto Maple Leafs captain John Tavares (1040).
Focusing on Claude Giroux’s Career Stats Until this Point
Throughout Claude Giroux’s NHL career, his stats and total points, and more importantly rate of points-per-game, have consistently put him among the leaders in the NHL. For example, as a 30-year-old, in 2017-18, Giroux had his best statistical NHL season. That year he lead the entire NHL with 68 assists, and finished second in the Art Ross Trophy race with 102 points to none other than Connor McDavid.
Remarkably, he has still been getting it done offensively, such as with his numbers from the 2022-23 season with Ottawa as a 35-year-old. That year he was the perfect complement along with Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle. In 2022-23, we saw veteran Giroux hit his career-high with 35 goals. His playmaking ability and slowing the play down for Tkachuk and Stutzle to capitalize on, along with his faceoff acumen, created optimal line distribution chemistry. Tkachuk and Stutzle each had career-highs as well, with 83 and 90 points, respectively.
That season had one telling stat that truly showed the lines chemistry. According to moneypuck.com, in 506 minutes played together, their xGoals% was 59.9. However, perhaps resultant of lingering injuries to Stutzle in particular, the line was unable to recapture that level of success. In 2023-24, in just 158 minutes together, their xGoals% fell to 53.0. Therefore, Giroux was shuffled through the lineup a bit more during the season.
The Claude-Father of the Draw
Let’s be honest, one anomaly of Giroux’s career is his incredible ability on the draw. The reason it is surprising is that he has prototypically been a winger. Yet, he has always had an innate ability in the faceoff dot. Ever since Giroux’s fourth full season in the NHL, he basically has been a faceoff machine. To that point, in each of those seasons the range of his faceoff win percentage has been between 52.9 and 60.3. Therefore, the Senators have used him in high-leverage roles, such as defensive zone draws, in order to capture big faceoff wins. This is somewhere Shane Pinto’s emergence has really boosted the club’s alignment.
Analyzing Giroux’s Role With the Club in 2024-25
So, this begs the question for Giroux under new Head Coach Travis Green’s strategies, just how does the veteran fit in Ottawa’s lineup for 2024-25? Moreover, the answer to this question would have a huge impact on his forecasted offensive output. It seems at this point of Giroux’s career, he would be best suited for a very responsible third-line role. For example, Tyler Seguin’s shift to his utilization with the Dallas Stars. He would be fresher for taking important faceoffs when those opportunities arise. Plus, he would be able to mentor young players like Ridly Greig or Zack Ostapchuk on their respective offensive games. The one advantage to playing third line roles, for skilled players like Giroux, is your matchups get easier. Opposed to being in a top-six forward role and always have to face opponent’s top-four defencemen.
One impressive number that standouts from Claude Giroux’s stats in 2023-24, was his ice time. He was still over 20 minutes a night, as a 36-year-old forward, that is quite noteworthy. If the Sens can remain healthy, and plus the addition of David Perron, don’t expect Giroux to be near that number in 2024-25.
More than likely Giroux dips to 17-18 minutes, and the lower end of that if he ends up playing third-line minutes consistently. The other big question is what will the power plays look like in Ottawa. Giroux could slot in on either the first or second power play, but which one he ultimately lands on would impact his production. Without going over a huge analysis on the Sens power play alignment at this time, let’s say Giroux ends up on the second unit. The big thing is giving those who are ready for the role of the first power play. Therefore, a leader like Giroux can graciously sacrifice some offensive numbers for the betterment of the organization’s development.
The Last Word on Claude Giroux’s Predicted Stats for 2024-25
The Ottawa Senators forward group has the potential to be highly explosive. We can anticipate big offensive seasons from Tkachuk, Stutzle, Pinto, and probably add Drake Batherson to that group. You know Giroux is going to factor in big with this lineup again, in this his third season with Ottawa. Even though we have him pencilled down on the third-line, you know all to well he’s going to continue to be given opportunity with the top scorers. Look for Giroux to land right around 50 points this upcoming season. However, his role with the club will become more vital, as a mentor and leader, winning clutch faceoffs, his versatility in being ready whenever coach Green taps his shoulder.
Main photo credit: David Kirouac-USA TODAY Sports
