Edmonton Oilers Need a Repeat of Late Round Draft Successes

Until a surprise, late-second, out-of-the-blue trade to get the last pick of the first round, Oilers fans were going to have to be content with hoping a hidden gem fell to them in the late rounds. Up until the trade, they only had one pick until the fifth round. That just isn’t a recipe for success. Successful teams build through the draft. Oilers late round draft success has been crucial.

Ultimately, their draft ended up looking like this:

Oilers fans should not expect too much of these young men. The odds of getting an impact player past the top dozen or so picks in the first round go exponentially down.

Oilers Need A Repeat of Late Round Draft Success

The Value of Draft Picks

HockeyProspect.com conducted a study over several decades. It found that the likelihood of drafting a player who plays at least 200 NHL games is about 75% for the first overall pick. It goes down to around 50% for picks 2-10. Then it drops to about 25% by the end of the first round.

TSN Analytics analyzed draft success rates and found that the chances of drafting a star player (top-tier impact player) in the first round are about 15-20%. Contrarily,  in the later rounds, it drops below 5%.

A study by Sportsnet Data revealed that about 50% of first-round picks play at least 200 NHL games. In contrast, about 25% of second-round pick do so. However, only about 12% of picks from the third round onwards do.

Here is the value PuckPedia gives the Oilers draft picks in the next few years:

You can clearly see what happens when you don’t have any first or second round picks. That makes the lower picks even more important. The Oilers late round draft success will need to just that. Success.

There Can Be Value With Late Round Draft Selections

The Oilers late round draft success will be a thing to monitor. That doesn’t mean that lower round picks aren’t useful. Teams spending close to the salary need to cash in on inexpensive lower-round picks to support the stars.  Also, they’re valuable currency in trades with other teams. And, just occasionally, they can turn into gems.

The Oilers Best Late Round Draft Success

The key is in finding them. The Oilers have had late round draft success over the years with late picks. What they need to pray for is that this year’s later draft picks turn out similar to 2015.

A ripped and stained athletic supporter could have picked Connor McDavid with the first overall pick. But picking three regular NHL defencemen in rounds 4-5-6? That’s the scouts earning their salaries. Extra relish on their arena hot dogs for those guys that year.

The Oilers Best Ever Lower Round Picks

Here are arguably the Oilers best lower round picks in history. For our purposes, we’ll define “lower rounds” as the 4^th round or lower. So, the four best from four and lower.

Jari Kurri

Wayne Gretzky and Jari Kurri  went together like Edmonton winters and booster cables for your battery. Like a minus 40 degree morning a good windshield scraper. Would  Gretzky have been Gretzky without Jari Kurri? Without a doubt. Would  Kurri have been Kurri without  Gretzky? Well, yes. Just look at his statistics before and after 1988. That was,  of course, the year Gretzky was traded to the Los Angeles Kings. Not much of a drop-off at all.

Kurri would have been Kurri wherever he played. Five Stanley Cups. Enough said.

Glenn Anderson

It sounds funny to say that a Hall of Fame player never got the recognition he deserved. Playing in the shadow of Gretzky, Kurri, Messier, Coffey and Fuhr, it is easy to get lost in the shuffle. Anderson was simply fearless. He combined blazing speed with a complete disregard for his personal safety. At the same time, he charged the net like a cheetah seeing a wounded wildebeest in an era without breakaway pegs. Add in New York Islander Billy Smith swinging his stick like a Viking berserker every time he got near. And, oh yeah, five Stanley Cups to match Kurri, too.

Esa Tikkanen

If Kurri and Anderson were pure offence, Tikkanen was a defensive scoring gem that drove opponents nuts. An early era Patrice Bergeron, if you will. “Tik” was known for his ability to score clutch goals, but also for his general style of play — chippy and aggressive. If Gretzky was “The Great One,” Tikkanen was nicknamed “The Grate One” for his ability to infuriate opposing players, often just by talking to them in his Finnish-English “Tikkanese” or “Tiki-Talk.”

He came very close to winning the Selke Trophy (awarded annually to the NHL forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game) several times. In 1989-90, he came in a close third (14% of votes) to St. Louis’  Rick Meagher (18.5% of votes),  and Guy Carbonneau (17.5% of votes). The next year, 1990-91, Tikkanen was second in balloting for the Selke (40% of votes), beaten out only by Chicago’s  Dirk Graham  ((47% of votes).

All while putting up first-line scoring totals.

Miroslav Satan

Satan is the one the Oilers let get away, trading him away to Buffalo after just two years for Barrie Moore and Craig Millar before they knew what they had.

Playing for five different NHL teams, Satan had a 40-goal season, three 30-goal seasons and four 20-goal seasons. But he was just as effective a playmaker. He had two 70-point seasons, four 60-point seasons and another 50-point one.

He possessed a quick, accurate shot and excellent puck-handling abilities. And versatile, too. Satan was adaptable, able to play both wings and center when needed. Defensive ability? Check. He was capable of playing in both offensive and defensive situations. As we can see from the point totals above, add in consistency. Finally, there was his leadership. Satan often served as a captain or alternate captain, both in the NHL and for the Slovak national team.

The Honourable Mentions

Not every late-round success can be a Hall of Famer or multiple Stanley Cup winner. Here are some other late-round Oiler draft picks that also excelled.

Will the Oilers 2024 Draft Resemble 2015? Or 2014 and 2013?

2015

2014

2013

The Oilers better hope this year’s late round picks match up to 2015. Not 2014 or 2013. The team has traded away multiple higher draft picks because the team is in a “win now” mode. As a result, the pipeline of drafted players moving onto the big team is currently down to a trickle. Late round draft successes will be vital going forward.

Main Photo: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports