Don’t let all the social media chatter paint the picture for you, such as Pierre LeBrun’s tweet below, and let’s just discuss it here instead. There are lots of discussions, news, and rumours, but the situation between the Ottawa Senators and the Shane Pinto camp is that Pinto and the club have a strong, working relationship. Yes, there may be a slight disconnect in the financials, but that can be expected of such a strange, career development thus far for Pinto. We just want to bring some calm to the situation, and suggest that a trade involving Pinto is extremely improbable. Now that day one of the NHL free agency period is complete, we can bring a lot more clarity to the club’s overall situation. But also, that can bring more clarity to the potential Pinto signing as well.
Hearing that talks have stalled between the Ottawa Senators and Shane Pinto. Could lead to Pinto asking for a trade. Stay tuned.
— Pierre LeBrun (@PierreVLeBrun) July 1, 2024
Regarding to the News on the Shane Pinto Situation, Reviewing the History of the Offer Sheet
One point to consider what is making news on the Shane Pinto chaos and rumours, is the offer sheet route. The fact of the matter is, that there have been few offer sheets throughout the NHL’s history, going back to the first one in 1986. Fans of the Toronto Maple Leafs might recall the Gary Nylund story that kickstarted this idea. However, the fact remains, that few valuable offer sheets have ever gone unmatched. In fact, since 1997, only Dustin Penner and Jesperi Kotkaniemi have had their offer sheets go unmatched. Therefore, most of the time, and most importantly, what seems to be the Sens current situation, is that teams match offer sheets. Take for example, like the Carolina Hurricanes did with Sebastian Aho‘s offer sheet in 2019, and the team just ends up paying the player what they are worth essentially anyway.
The #Sens qualified centre Shane Pinto. Keep hearing in league circles his camp will be looking for an offer sheet when free agency opens tomorrow. The compensation for a deal with an AAV of $4.58-to-$6.7 million is a first and third-round pick @CapFriendly
— Bruce Garrioch (@SunGarrioch) June 30, 2024
How Does Free Agency Fit into the Shane Pinto Situation?
The one point to take away from General Manager Steve Staios‘ free agency signings, is now we can look at what salary cap space is left to do addition signings. The top priority amongst those potential free agent signings, would be Shane Pinto’s restricted free agent (RFA) contract. The Senators were able to add names like Linus Ullmark, David Perron, and Michael Amadio over the past few days. These three players alone will earn nearly $12 million in 2024-25. Moreover, what this means is, according to puckpedia, the Sens currently have 20 of their 23 roster spots assigned. This includes the fact there is a little over $3.6 million in available cap space for 2024-25. In contrast, they still need to come up with the dollars needed for Shane Pinto.
One of the concerns circulating is on Pinto receiving an offer sheet. First of all, it has been reported that the Sens would match any potential offer sheet in the works. However, if it too much, that would cause a problem for the Senators in not having enough money. So, they may need to move someone quickly, perhaps like Mathieu Joseph.
The Sens group loves Pinto, and vice versa. This was made abundantly clear after welcoming back Pinto from his 41-game suspension in January 2024. Everyone around the room was saying how infectious his fun and loose personality is to the locker room. Moreover, with the lesson learned for Pinto personally, and also, being apart of a professional hockey club for a couple years now, Pinto himself has really grown mentally in responsibility, professionalism, and most of all, knowing when to take things seriously.
There was a lot percolating out there today, but to clarify one item: Shane Pinto has not asked #Sens for a trade.
— Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) July 1, 2024
Moving Past the Rumoured Trade That Hogged the Latest Shane Pinto News
Let’s move past the idea that Shane Pinto requested a trade. Also, based on our discussion thus far, move past the idea there is any potential for an offer sheet. The difficulty in assessing Pinto’s current value, is as we mentioned, his very unusual career-trajectory to this point.
Furthermore, Shane Pinto is a very intriguing player. He is someone who has proven to be a top-six forward in the NHL, and what’s more, a centre, with a career faceoff percentage above 50%. However, then there is the fact, that even though he had 27 points in just 41 games in 2023-24, his NHL career-high still remains at only 35 points. In addition, on top of missing half of 2023-24, he only played five games in 2021-22 due to a shoulder injury requiring surgery. Therefore, he career progress has been stalled. And yet, he seems to be a very consistent producer, at least based on his 2023-24 performance.
Will the Senators Find a Contract that Works for Both Sides?
We have discussed it before, but a quick look at some comparables for Pinto’s salary. The problem is, with only around $3.5 million of cap space the Sens may need to get creative. Additionally, Pinto may need to keep an open mind to make it all work. We think Pinto should fall somewhere between these two types of players.
Current Montreal Canadien forward Alex Newhook, after a 2022-23 season, which was only his second full NHL campaign, signed a nearly $12 million contract over four years. Newhook’s resume includes the fact that despite not playing a ton during his rookie season during the Colorado Avalanche 2022 Stanley Cup run, he still does have a ring. In that year leading up to his new contract, in 82 games played, he scored 14 goals and added 16 assists for 30 points. Newhook kind of comprises the floor for the type of contract that Pinto would sign.
If we want to explore the ceiling, it would be Roope Hintz of the Dallas Stars. In his second year in the league, Hintz put up 33 points in 60 games, skating just 14:45 minutes a night. The next season he got a big bump in ice time, and has been consistently between 17-18 minutes a night since. Next, in 2021-22, as a 25-year-old, he put up a very nice 37 goals and 72 points through 80 games played. That November, he signed his current monster eight-year, slightly over $67 million deal.
A Bridge Deal Works Best
It is not news, but yes, Shane Pinto does want to get paid and does deserve it to some degree. He is just 23 years old after all. Conversely, there is still lots of time for him to be paid down the road. The Senators and he need to meet in the middle on a bridge deal, in the range of $3.5 to $5 million for two-to-three years. Once Pinto establishes himself as a top-six, two-way star for the Sens, then he can get the term the team wants for security and the annual amount he truly deserves. The hope is that the salary cap will have increased enough by then to make the financials work. With the caveat being, that the Senators have become, and maintained being, a competitive team throughout the process.
What Kind of Contract Will the Ottawa Senators Shane Pinto Sign?
Main photo credit: Marc DesRosiers-USA TODAY Sports
