The Ottawa Senators already landed a big fish in the trade bait pond this offseason in Linus Ullmark. With two big goaltender swaps already with both Jacob Markstrom and Darcy Kuemper switching teams in separate deals, the market has been busy already. For the Ottawa Senators, anytime you can add a Vezina Trophy winner to the fold, without giving up a top-line player, it can become a difference maker. Let’s discuss what this acquisition will mean in Ottawa going forward.
After the Linus Ullmark Trade to the Ottawa Senators, Rumours Already On him Re-Signing
Bruce Garrioch in the Ottawa Citizen quoted Linus Ullmark from an interview they had. This is what stirred up rumours in Ottawa Senators land. Moreover, the two were already discussing the idea that Ullmark wasn’t signed beyond 2024-25. And what could be seen as problematic was his lack of opinion on that matter. It likely was just an honest answer saying that management and his agent will talk, but that is how rumours start.
Looking At Ullmark’s and the Sens Goalies Statistics from Past Two Seasons
Linus Ullmark had a great 2023-24 with a 22-10-7 record, a 2.57 GAA, and a .915 SV%. Additionally, the Sens newest netminder had a sensational 2022-23, Vezina-winning campaign. That year he went on a historic, season-long run with a 40-6-1 record. His GAA you may ask, 1.89 with a .938 SV%. If we study the key goaltender statistic, goals saved above expected, Sens fans have nothing to worry about.
2022-23 GSAx League Ranks According to Moneypuck.com (minimum 25 games played)
| TEAM | Name | GP | GSAx | Rank | High Danger SV% Above Exp. |
| NSH | Juuse Saros | 64 | 46.7 | 1 | 0.074 |
| BOS | Linus Ullmark | 49 | 42.4 | 2 | 0.078 |
| MIN | Filip Gustavsson | 39 | 24.2 | 7 | 0.073 |
| BOS | Jeremy Swayman | 37 | 24 | 8 | 0.135 |
| CLB/LAK | Joonas Korpisalo | 39 | 12.7 | 11 | 0.039 |
| OTT | Anton Forsberg | 28 | 8.1 | 17 | 0.045 |
| OTT | Cam Talbot | 36 | -0.7 | 32 | 0.043 |
2023-24 GSAx League Ranks
| TEAM | Name | GP | GSAx | Rank | High Danger SV% Above Exp. |
| BOS | Jeremy Swayman | 44 | 18.4 | 4 | 0.057 |
| BOS | Linus Ullmark | 40 | 14.8 | 7 | 0.015 |
| LAK | Cam Talbot | 54 | 10.7 | 10 | 0.082 |
| NSH | Juuse Saros | 64 | -3 | 37 | 0.075 |
| MIN | Filip Gustavsson | 45 | -4.8 | 40 | 0.059 |
| OTT | Anton Forsberg | 30 | -7.3 | 46 | 0.062 |
| OTT | Joonas Korpisalo | 55 | -16.1 | 53 | 0.105 |
Just to compare some significant goaltender results with recently adjacent, connection to the Senators. It is interesting how this group of goaltenders, for the most part, maybe Talbot or Swayman as exceptions, all fell off year-over-year. Even for the Senators, their tandem-mates of Talbot and Forsberg, ranked 28th and 36th, respectively in 2022-23, got progressively worse with Forsberg (46th) and Korpisalo (53rd) in 2023-24. It is almost bewildering how Korpisalo can been so much above expected-value levels for high danger opportunities, yet, be so far below in GSAx. Seems to indicate weak goals getting in, ones that can be deflating for your club. Perhaps he was overworked in Ottawa in 2023-24. Fortunately, for him, he doesn’t have to worry about that problem with Swayman there in Boston.
Attempting to Explain Why Ullmark is an Upgrade
There’s another team based stat that may help explain just how bad the Senators goaltending was in 2023-24. In expected goals against per 60 minutes, a number that is more based on what the team gives up in terms of opportunities. It is not directly related to goaltending results of whether they actually got scored on or not. Regardless, for the Sens, they were 15th at 2.50, while the Bruins were right behind them in 18th with 2.51. Therefore, what this does, is further extenuate the poor GSAx numbers. That is to say, even though the team was doing reasonably well in preventing expected goals, the goalies were doing nothing to stop them. Maybe that’s why Ullmark’s 14.8 GSAx from 2023-24, and his 42.4 GSAx the year before, are the reason the Sens are better off. But hey, it is definitely tough to say with 100% certainty.
The Senators also need to look at his value to determine how this deal plays out. At $5 million for the 2024-25, you’d have to think he is a bargain. Yes, he’s earned a hefty raise, but if the Sens are not satisfied with his performance, they aren’t currently locked in.
What About the Rest of the Senators Offseason Wants and Needs
If we want to talk about other changes the Senators need to make this offseason, there are a few. Since owner Michael Andlauer came on board, he’s essentially got the luxury of picking his entire staff in a short amount of time. What that means, is that there has been significant turnover for the Sens organization, especially off-the-ice. How will that translate in on-ice success? Well, only time will tell. There are some moves for Staios to focus on still. He has to re-sign RFA Shane Pinto, and the draft is just a day away, and the Sens currently hold down the seventh overall pick. It does appear there should be some reasonably strong hockey prospects at that position remaining on the board. After the draft, Staios can focus on free agency. He can possibly look to find a big name, top-four type, right-shot D-man. Will it be enough to push the Sens into 2025 playoff contention?
Staios and his staff are taking a one-step-at-a-time approach. With Korpisalo’s contract mostly gone, a big name goalie brought in, the Sens are looking stronger already. Possibly add a couple free agents to the mix, and things are really looking up.
Main photo credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
