Tim Stutzle is in for a big 2024-25. Do you know how we know that the Ottawa Senators Tim Stutzle is a superstar player? Can we tell by his stats? Not the fact that he went from 39 goals in 2022-23 to 18 in 2023-24. Nor is it that his Corsi rating dipped over that same period, as his CF% Rel went from 12.8 to 10.3. The one tell with Stutzle is his assists. They actually went up, from 51 to 52. If you are a proven goal-scorer, as he is with his total of 39, and you can consistently put up 50-plus assists, you have succeeded in establishing yourself as a top-flight NHL point producer and will continue to do so for years to come. And Sens fans, let’s not forget that the young man is only 22 years old.
Tim Stutzle Beyond His Stats Is Still Among the NHL Stars
Another reason why Tim Stutzle’s 2023-24 supplanted him as a superstar at his position was ice time. Yes, his ice time was down, but only very slightly. It went from 21:16 to 21:07 from last season to this one. Furthermore, the 21:07 was ranked tenth among all NHL forwards. And look at some of the names ahead of him on the list. Mikko Rantanen and Nathan MacKinnon of the Colorado Avalanche were one-two league-wide for ice time by a forward. Rantanen had 22:54 and MacKinnon was at 22:48. Therefore, between being a part of both specialty teams as Stutzle is, and having such a high ice time total, there’s just more and more to be pleased with his performance. That is despite what some naysayers were saying was a down year for the youthful German superstar.
How Did Tim Stutzle’s 2023-24 Stats Look
One reason 2023-24 might have been a step back was his takeaway and giveaway differential. Last year he had 61 takeaways and 62 giveaways. Unfortunately, in 2023-24, he jumped up to 68 giveaways, with only 48 takeaways. One explanation for this negative regression of takeaway and giveaway differential could be part of the impact of not playing with Brady Tkachuk. Tkachuk would be an excellent example of someone who helps generate turnovers. Maybe not his own, but Stutzle could use his speed to pick up loose pucks from tie-ups. Stutzle’s pace would lead to takeaways yes, but not at such a high frequency as adding Tkachuk’s physical element. Also, for Stutzle in 2023-24, other parts of his game showed his development. For example, his faceoff percentage did go up to 46.7. Still not good enough for someone taking more than 500 faceoffs in a year. He had 512, but still a lot better than 41.6% in around the same amount of faceoffs taken from the year before. Also, Stutzle has always had a very high oSZ%, and in 2022-23 it was 66.9%. Additionally, in 2023-24, this decreased slightly, to 63.0%, the lowest of his career. This does suggest that slowly he is being used in different, more high-pressure situations in both ends of the ice. The problem does come up with his faceoff percentage, and not being able to be relied upon to take key faceoffs, in any part of the ice. And it is one reason that he has played with Claude Giroux so much, one of the best faceoff percentages of all time at 56.1%. Therefore, there are still things to work on for Stutzle, but that’s what makes him so exciting. Coming into 2024-25, he will be 22 and already had a 90-point NHL season.
Find Some Comps From Around the NHL
What if we compare his projection with some other fellow NHLers, such as Jack Hughes? Hughes is a good comparable player statistically because he played in the NHL as an 18-year-old and is a left-shot centreman. Hughes has had a couple of injury-shortened campaigns but has played five full seasons in the NHL. In 306 games, he has a 0.92 PPG average, a poor faceoff win percentage of 35.7%, and last year was just under 21 minutes a night of ice time. In four years, Stutzle has a 0.87 PPG. Therefore, in comparison with Hughes and some stats, Tim Stutzle matches up very well. Some other NHLers who broke in as 18-year-olds include Nathan MacKinnon, Aleksander Barkov, and David Pastrnak. MacKinnon saw the big leap as a 22-year-old, improving from 53 points to 97 that season. Barkov’s breakout was around that time too. As a 22-year-old, he had 78 points in 79 games in 2017-18 for the Florida Panthers. Moreover, the next season he leaped up to 96. Finally, David Pastrnak, the Boston Bruins winger, is also a good baseline for Stutzle. As a 19-year-old, Pastrnak actually only had 26 points in 51 games. However, the next year saw him become nearly a PPG player with 70 points in 75 games. Through ten years of his career to this point, he is still only at 1.08 PPG. Although he has been a PPG or better six years in a row now. There are other names to compare as well, such as Auston Matthews, or Gabriel Landeskog based mostly on playing full NHL seasons as an 18-year-old. But for Stutzle, being a centre, playing a complete 200-foot game, and trying to be a big-time point getter, all factor into his excellence.
What About the Surrounding Parts
Another angle of why 2023-24 was a nice season for Stutzle from a development standpoint, was his linemates. He wasn’t relying on captain Brady Tkachuk to carry him through top matchups on the ice. The two spent most of the season on different lines. In addition, for whatever reason, the chemistry the trio of Tkachuk, Stutzle, and Giroux had in 2022-23, just wasn’t there last year. Perhaps the lack of chemistry was caused by a negative linear regression from Giroux. Will the 36-year-old be able to bounce back in 2024-25, it is unlikely. But he can still be an excellent third-liner, to help carry young players along and provide big-time offensive punch from the spot in the lineup. 64 points in 2023-24 was nothing to shake a stick at, but it isn’t at the previous year’s level. 79 points and a career-high 35 goals as a 35-year-old was a welcome surprise but should be not made the expectation.
What Is the Final Word
One final thought on Tim Stutzle for his stats and otherwise for the 2023-24 season. One point we haven’t mentioned was that it was rumoured he played through injury most of the season. Likely those injuries were to his wrist or shoulder. It would help explain his shooting percentage dropping from 17.1 to 9.4. Any Sen follower knows that from watching Stutzle, he always seemed like he had lots of wrap on his body. And really, isn’t that all a part of the experience gathered as a professional hockey player? Battling through adversity and still persevering with favourable results. In any sense, look for a major offensive season in 2024-25 for the Senator top-line, star centre.
Main photo credit: Marc DesRosiers-USA TODAY Sports
