One of the Toronto Maple Leafs main goalies for the past two seasons becomes an unrestricted free agent (UFA) this summer. It really feels as though the Toronto Maple Leafs will move on from Ilya Samsonov this summer, but where will he sign then? And what role will he be assigned to when he does sign? Therefore, let’s start by reviewing some of Samsonov’s numbers. Then, we can try to tackle those questions and more.
The Maple Leafs Goalie Ilya Samsonov Statistical Review
Let’s begin our discussion on Ilya Samsonov by reviewing his stats, and career progression. One point worth noting, is that he never really played a lot of games, at any level. Before becoming the Washington Capitals go-to goalie in 2021-22, the most games he had played in a professional season was 42 total. That came in 2018-19 with the Capitals AHL affiliate Hershey Bears and includes regular season and playoffs.
That year in Washington, 2021-22, he played 49 games (including playoffs), which was good enough to land him the starter job in Toronto. That was according to Leafs GM at the time, Kyle Dubas. Even though the Leafs thought he was ready for the job, and even so, his great regular season stats in 2022-23 furthered that confidence, perhaps he needed more proper NHL starting goalie preparation. Let’s take a look at a comparable goalie to see if any lessons could be learned.
A Comparison of Ilya Sorokin’s Stats as a Baseline
Another goalie who came over recently after playing in the KHL was Ilya Sorokin. Sorokin has been thought of as a top-tier NHL goalie. He’s also one of the main reasons the New York Islanders, and their tough defensive style has been competitive in the playoff picture since his arrival on the scene. So now to begin the comparison between the two fellow countrymen and goalies, Sorokin and Samsonov. Sorokin came over to the NHL as a 25-year-old rookie, whereas Samsonov was 21 when he debuted in North America with Hershey. Additionally, Sorokin’s numbers in Russia really were quite remarkable. He had played five full seasons with CSKA Moscow before joining the New York Islanders. In those five seasons, his GAA was between 1.06 and 1.61 each season, and SV% between .929 and .953. Meanwhile, Samsonov only played three seasons with Magnitogorsk Metallurg but still had great numbers. His GAA was between 2.04 and 2.31 those three seasons, and a save percentage always .925 or above. Therefore, before Samsonov began his NHL journey, including bouncing around, if we compare with someone like Sorokin, his career had been a lot more volatile and less stable.
Check out His Numbers as a Leaf
When you summarize Ilya Samsonov’s stats as a member of the Toronto Maple Leafs, they have actually been quite good. And that’s by anyone’s standards, not just that of the rabid Leafs’ fanbase over their starting goaltender. Moreover, he has compiled a 50-17-13 regular season record in two seasons with Toronto, good for a .706 Win %. Most teams would kill for a goalie, much less one that could be a starter, with that type of a winning percentage. Furthermore, his totals with the Leafs, a .905 SV% and a 2.71 GAA, are actually both better than his NHL career numbers. Over the course of his NHL career, he has comprised a .904 SV% with a 2.76 GAA.
In contrast, when you vying for the starter role in the Meccah of hockey, good enough, often isn’t good enough. Also, he’s maintained those decent Leaf numbers, despite the fall off in 2023-24. For example, his GSAA fell from a very strong 17.4 in 2022-23 to a dismal -14.9 this past year. There were rumblings of Samsonov’s struggles for a long time. If we think back to the 2023 second round of the playoffs, even then he lost the reigns to Joseph Woll. But still, General Manager Brad Treliving had signed him for one-year, at $3.55 M. A lofty amount for a backup but a bargain for a starter. Had he duplicated his 2022-23 regular season, then we wouldn’t be having this discussion. You must also consider that it probably isn’t mentally healthy to bring him back. This is a goalie that was cut from the team altogether in late December, despite strong play upon his return.
Just Where, Oh Where, Do We Land on Samsonov
With all this in mind, it is difficult to imagine Ilya Samsonov returning to the Leafs. Conversely, if they can sign for $2M or less, and have him backup Joseph Woll, maybe there is a solution there. That is even saying that Treliving thinks Woll will be their starter come October. Needless to say, for Samsonov, he’s definitely strong enough to be a backup in the NHL. After his struggles under the bright lights of Toronto, maybe he could find success out of the spotlight more so. A non-traditional market, like a Seattle or Columbus, might be the type of fit for him, to really find himself. He could very well make a run to be a 1-a, 1-b type goaltender tandem somewhere within the NHL for 2024-25.
Main photo credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
