The Ottawa Senators have some decisions to make in the offseason and one of them is the contract status of defenceman Jakob Chychrun. In terms of a sell-high philosophy, it might be the best time to trade him. However, as General Manager Steve Staios was alluding to in his end of season press conference, now is more of a time of self-reflection. That is what he asked his players to do, and it doesn’t sound like that he is in a rush to make personnel decisions. That said, he was referring to the players, because they do need a head coach, and preferably by the 2024 NHL Entry Draft. So, just where do the Senators stand on Jakob Chychrun and offering him a new contract?
Jakob Chychrun Looking back on Recent Performance
In the press conference, Staios was flat out asked, are either side open to contract talks? Again, at this time it seems like Staios isn’t bugging his players about contracts. That will come later in the offseason. What Staios did hint at about Jakob Chychrun, is that it will probably be a lucrative contract that he ends up signing. Furthermore, Chychrun is the type of player that will be a highly-sought after commodity and popular as a target for other teams. Staios says that their group looks highly of Chychrun, as we shall also explain why later. Also, Staios needs to look at all areas, and see how it all fits together in the club’s program.
One final comment before we analyze, is that we will keep our discussion focused on Chychrun. This isn’t a comparison of who they should keep between he and Thomas Chabot. Chychrun in making his decision to sign or not, has to ultimately look at the big picture. Does he possibly want to be a third-pairing guy, developing the prospects? Or perhaps one of he or Chabot will be stuck playing their off-side on the team’s top pairing. Either way, it is a lot to consider on everyone’s plate.
Jump Into Chychrun’s Statistical Analysis
In order to discuss contract options, let’s study Jakob Chychrun’s statistics from the 2023-24 season, but also recent seasons as well. In 2023-24, he played in 82 games for the first time in his career. Moreover, he recorded 14 goals and 27 assists for 41 points. This was the second most goals of his career, most assists, and tied for most points. Last season, in 2022-23, he came over around the trade deadline from the Arizona Coyotes. Combined with both teams, he played 48 games, and put up nine goals and 24 assists. He did have some injury problems last year. The injury that held him out after he came over to Ottawa was a hamstring injury. He has been prone to injuries throughout his career, and why thus the significance of his first time hitting the 82-game mark. Also, it could potentially be used as leverage in contract negotiations.
Back to his statistics from this past season. Aided by his increase in total game time, but his 72 hits is a total not seen since earlier in his career. More impressively, and speaks to the team’s defensive struggles as a whole, was his blocked shot total of 154. His previous career-high was 99 from his rookie campaign. Additionally, this speaks to his willingness to sacrifice his body, and one reason why he is so valuable. In terms of his ice time, he has been pretty consistent over the past few seasons, going back to his days in the desert. He has averaged between 22:23 and 23:23 going back to the 2019-20 season. In other words, very consistent.
Comments on his Analytics
Looking analytically, this year was right around his career-average. He had a CF% Rel of 5.8, which was up slightly from his career numbers at 5.6. Interestingly enough, in 2022-23 was an anomaly for him. He posted a standing of 12.7, which was mostly impacted by his play with the Coyotes. One additional metric nice to look at is how he performed as part of different pairings.
How Did Chychrun Fair with Different Partners?
One thing is for sure, there was no consistency in his partner this year on the Ottawa blueline. That is something significant, and shows a commitment to the team. In fact, from moneypuck.com, if we filter on 100 minutes plus, 13 pairs show up for Ottawa. Chychrun shows up for six of them. He ranges from the top rated pair, when he was with Jake Sanderson. In 141.4 minutes of game action together, they had an excellent 64.1 x Goals%. Conversely, and more alarmingly so, given the minute allocation, he was a part of pairing near the bottom. When paired with Jacob Bernard-Docker for 431.1 minutes, the two had a 41.6 xGoals%. Furthermore, that was the second most a pairing played together all season for the Senators. Only topped by the dynamic duo of Sanderson and Artem Zub. It should also be noted, that the third most common pair was Chabot and Chychrun. In 345 minutes together, they put up a respectable 53.4 xGoals%. So, regardless of his struggles, Chychrun is extremely useful, dependable, and versatile.
What Do the Senators Have In Store for Jakob Chychrun Possibly Signing a Contract
It speaks to what Staios was saying in his end of season wrap up. The character of the individuals makes this a likable group. It is part of the reason more moves weren’t made at the trade deadline, as this management regime tried to understand who they have, who they want, and what their strategy is going forward. It is noteworthy that between Zub, Sanderson, Chabot, and Chychrun, they all hover around the same amount of ice time. Not like someone plays 26 minutes a night and receives a lopsided distribution. So, there is a world where they distribute the minutes over the three lines. Perhaps if they find the right-shot defenceman to mix in with their current pieces, whether that is Tyler Kleven or Bernard-Docker.
Sign Chychrun in the Off-season
This probably makes the most sense. The only downfall for the Senators is Chychrun is coming off a strong end to his 2023-24, so his asking price would invariably be high. In contrast, that shouldn’t be a deterrent. It was highly likely his demand is elevated anyway from a career progression standpoint. Signing Chychrun in this offseason, allows everybody to focus on their task ahead of the 2024-25. Chychrun can relax and find his most comfortable partner. Also, which of the speciality team roles he fits in best. Moreover, it allows the management to fill in the rest of the top-six. They need to focus on bringing in a physical, right-hand shot, defensive defenceman. Depending on Shane Pinto’s contract, they also need to know how much they can spend.
Trade Him in the Off-season
Chychrun is currently on a contract that ends after the 2024-25 season, with a 10-team no-trade list and earns $4.6 M. So, if the Sens look to trade him, he does have a bit of leverage. The nice thing about trading him in the offseason, is it allows everyone to get settled away for training camp. The Sens would likely be able to bring in a true, top-four, right-shot guy to play with Chabot. Also, with Chychrun’s salary, it does make him a desirable commodity for interested teams. However, Chychrun is a great player and person, and the team doesn’t want to give up on that part. Even though hockey is a business, sometimes the intangibles are less obvious.
Sign Jakob Chychrun to a Long-Term Contract After Next Season
There is an advantage to this approach, for both teams and player. It gives Chychrun an opportunity to see how the pairings and his assignments fit with the club under a new head coach. Also, it allows Chychrun one more season to boost his stock price. For Staios’ staff, it also allows them one more season to see the fit. The Sens are so heavy on left-shot defence, the feeling is someone has to go. This needs to be looked at as an opportunity. Waiting also allows the club to evaluate further, and one more season of a sample to make an informed decision.
Trade Chychrun at the Trade Deadline
Lastly, trading Chychrun at the deadline. It gives player and team a solid sample size to see if there’s a fit. Therefore, allowing the team to avail of assets that would be lost waiting until free agency kicks-in. This also has an advantage to Chychrun, as it would likely lead to him having a playoff run next year.
To summarize, the best options are likely trade him at the 2025 trade deadline or re-sign him before 2025 free agency. Either way, you are getting one more season to see if there’s a fit. For this year, even if he gets stuck in more of a third-pair role, his salary isn’t too much that it hurts down the road. And if he can prove Chabot and he are a top pairing, on a playoff contending team, everyone wins.
Main photo: Per Haljestam-USA TODAY Sports
