Dmitry Orlov‘s performance since signing with the Carolina Hurricanes in the offseason has been largely hot and cold. Or maybe cold then hot. He came to Carolina as one of the biggest offseason free agent signings with high expectations. Following good performances with both the Washington Capitals and Boston Bruins, he was set to make Carolina’s strong defence even stronger. After a slow start, Dmitry Orlov has settled into Carolina’s system and is providing that strong performance that the Hurricanes hoped for.
What Makes Orlov an X Factor
Webster’s Dictionary defines an X factor as “a circumstance, quality, or person that has a strong but unpredictable influence.” So when you think of an X factor for Carolina, the “unpredictable” aspect rules out many players like Sebastian Aho and Jake Guentzel. And while you could make the case possibly for a few other players as an X factor, here we argue that Carolina’s big offseason signing Orlov could be their biggest.
Dmitry Orlov’s Season Performance
As mentioned above, Orlov started off the season slow. At $7.75 million AAV for two years, many felt he was taking up unnecessary cap space. But as the season moved forward, he started settling in with defensive partner Jalen Chatfield. That pairing started performing as one the best third pairs in the league for expected goals against and goals against per 60 minutes. For a third pairing, they were performing about as well as you’d want for a third pair. Both could skate fairly well, both didn’t mind playing physical, and both didn’t mind jumping up on offence knowing the other could cover on defence.
But Orlov individually has six goals and 20 assists in 77 games. Not earth-shattering numbers. But it is his later season numbers that partially show why he may be the Hurricanes X factor. Since January 1, 2024, Orlov has five goals and eight assists. So his points are split fairly evenly but the majority of his goals have come since the turn of the year. As Orlov has gotten more comfortable in the Hurricanes season, his goal-scoring has increased. And this positive trend could be huge as all sights turn to the postseason. With Carolina utilizing their defence for offence, a strong Orlov is a major asset.
Potential to Shine in the Postseason
But what makes Orlov an X factor is more than just increasing statistics. If that was it, we would just simply say he is an asset. However, Orlov has many dynamic qualities and abilities that fit the X factor definition. For one, Orlov has the ability to move. He can skate well up ice and contribute offensively with creativity. In addition, he has a rocket of a shot and isn’t afraid to unleash it. So you take someone who can move, stickhandle, make plays, and shoot bombs from the point and you get a dynamic player.
Additionally, on the defensive side, his skating allows him to play Carolina’s man-to-man defence well. Pairing with Chatfield (who is also a good skater), the two have the ability to stop the opposition’s attack and turn the puck back in transition. Not to mention that Orlov also has no problem throwing the body. In 77 games, he leads all Hurricanes defencemen in hits with 111. So a physical presence on the backend who can move and contribute offensively as well….once again dynamic.
These qualities show Orlov’s potential to shine in the playoffs. A guy who can play both sides of the puck with a striking effectiveness is huge for a playoff run. Taking a look at last year, he had eight assists in seven playoff games for the Boston Bruins and was one of their better defencemen. Can he be a point-per-game player for Carolina as well while holding his own defensively? It certainly seems that way.
Those Intangibles
So we have shown all the qualities that fit the “strong” aspects of the X factor definition as well as some of the reasons based on Orlov’s performance this season that his influence may be unpredictable. But now let’s really focus on the unpredictable nature of the X factor definition.
For one, Orlov might have an influence on Evgeny Kuznetsov, who has shown to be a game-changer in the playoffs himself. The two played together in Washington and are good friends. Orlov helping Kuznetsov find his game again could be an underrated benefit he brings.
Dmitry Orlov’s Dagger Performance
Lastly, Orlov has shown an ability at times to turn on the jets and all of a sudden take over to influence the outcome of a game. Whether it’s a big hit, a big shot, or an end-to-end rush showcasing his skating and stickhandling. This is the final X factor quality Orlov has. None may be more evident than his last-minute snipe against the Arizona Coyotes seen below.
Carolina goal!
Scored by Dmitry Orlov with 00:36 remaining in the 3rd period.
Assisted by Jack Drury and Jalen Chatfield.
Carolina: 2
Arizona: 1#ARIvsCAR #CauseChaos #Yotes pic.twitter.com/V7cHbAuA3n— NHL Goals (@nhl_goal_bot) January 28, 2024
In that game, Carolina was dominating the play but struggled to find the back of the net. It was looking like the game was going to overtime. But then as Jack Drury carries the puck from the corner and turns towards the middle, Orlov recognizes the space and pinches up the boards. Drury drops the pass off and Orlov gets it wide. He keeps up his speed with his head up, takes a look, and snipes it in the corner to give Carolina the eventual game-winner with 36 seconds left.
We have seen players like Aho and Martin Necas do this from time to time, but Orlov actually has that ability as well. When it comes playoff time, there are going to be games where Carolina can’t get a goal. They may be playing well but can’t put the puck in the net for whatever reason. This is where Orlov’s X factor ability can rise out of the shadows and provide that strike that is the difference between a next-round appearance and a trip home.
So, whether it is the minute-by-minute effectiveness, the strong two-way dynamic play, or the surprising ability to strike when not expected, Orlov has all the makings of a game-changer for Carolina.
Main Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
