With the 2024 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs inching closer, the Tampa Bay Lightning have likely secured a playoff spot with their recent performance in the past ten games (8-1-1). Tampa Bay holds the first Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference (41-26-7) with 89 points. As of today, the Lightning have four potential opponents they can play in the first round. We will look at a Tampa Bay Lightning playoff preview matchup against the Carolina Hurricanes.
Analyzing a Potential Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Carolina Hurricanes Playoff Series Preview
Offensive Players and Statistics Head-To-Head
Tampa Bay runs an elite, puck-moving offence that strikes quickly. On the other hand, Carolina runs a slow-pace offence. Furthermore, the Hurricanes prefer quantity over quality in their scoring chance generation. Nikita Kucherov leads the offensive charge for the Bolts. The Russian superstar is first in the NHL scoring race. To compliment Kucherov, Brayden Point continues to score goals at will. On the other side of this matchup, Sebastian Aho leads the Hurricanes offence with a career-high 85 points. Moreover, the Hurricanes added star forward Jake Guentzel at the trade deadline.
Looking further down the depth chart, Carolina has a much better bottom-six than Tampa Bay. The Lightning added Anthony Duclair at the trade deadline, and he has fit nicely under Jon Cooper, scoring nine points in ten games. On top of Guentzel, the Hurricanes traded for Evgeny Kuznetsov at the trade deadline. Depth forwards such as Jordan Martinook, Jesper Fast, and Jesperi Kotkaniemi round out the best bottom six in the league. Meanwhile, scoring depth remains shallow for Tampa Bay.
Looking at some offensive rate statistics, Carolina has the advantage. The Hurricanes record 2.62 goals per hour at 5v5 (2.62 GF/60), good enough for 13th in the league. On the other hand, the Lightning score 2.47 goals per hour at 5v5 (2.47 GF/60), which ranks 22nd league-wide. Over the years, Carolina ranks at the top of expected goals due to their offensive systems. The Hurricanes register 2.9 expected goals per 60 at 5v5 (2.9 xGF/60), second-best in the NHL. However, we believe their goals for are a better indication of their true offensive abilities. Meanwhile, the Lightning records 2.42 expected goals per 60 at 5v5 (2.42 xGF/60), which ranks 25th league-wide.
While Carolina’s expected rates are inflated by the flaws of hockey analytics, the additions of Guentzel and Kuznetsov put their offence over the edge. However, the Lightning star players are capable of stealing a playoff series from this Hurricanes team. Therefore, the offence is a close call, as the Lightning can hang with any team offensively in the league this season.
Offence: Tie
Defensive Players and Statistics Head-To-Head
On the defensive end, this matchup is lopsided in favour of Carolina. For years, the Hurricanes continue to boast one of the best blue lines in the NHL with top-notch defending. Jaccob Slavin leads the way as a dominant two-way defenceman on an excellent contract. Furthermore, veteran Brent Burns revived his career under the coaching tactics of Rod Brind’Amour. Outside of Victor Hedman and flashes of promise from Darren Raddysh, the Lightning defence isn’t much to write home about without Mikhail Sergachev.
The Hurricanes are deep on the back end heading into the playoffs with a stud like Dmitry Orlov on the third pairing. Meanwhile, the Lightning acquired Matt Dumba to reinforce the defensive depth through his physicality. Carolina has a defensive advantage on paper and statistically.
Now, moving into defensive rate statistics, the Hurricanes results display the combination of elite coaching and defensive depth. The Hurricanes surrender 2.18 goals against per hour at 5v5 (2.18 GA/60), which ranks sixth in the NHL. Furthermore, Carolina allows 2.26 expected goals against per hour at 5v5 (2.26 xGA/60), good enough for third league-wide. Meanwhile, the Lightning’s defensive statistics aren’t close to the Hurricanes. Tampa Bay allows 2.84 goals against per hour at 5v5 (2.84 GA/60), which ranks 27th in the league. However, their shot-quality against rate is significantly better than their actual goals-against rate. The Lightning surrender 2.48 expected goals against per 60 (2.48 xGA/60), which ranks tied-11th in the NHL.
While Tampa Bay’s expected rates are a much better indicator of their defensive abilities, the Hurricanes defence is second to none in the league, giving them the advantage.
Defence: Carolina
Goaltending With Statistics Head-To-Head
Goalies being voodoo is a common cliche amongst the statistical hockey community, and this statement could not be more accurate. Year after year, goaltenders have the most variable statistical performances in the league compared to forwards and defenders. Goaltending statistics have historically been influential based on team systems or team defence.
The Hurricanes have a different approach in net this season. Frederik Andersen is finally healthy and will be the pure starter. Andersen ranks 10th amongst goaltenders in goals saved above expected this season (11.8 GSAx). Moreover, Pyotr Kochetkov and Spencer Martin offer solid backup options in case of injury.
On the other hand, the Lightning’s goaltending is not up to par compared to previous seasons. Andrei Vasilevskiy ranks 60th in goals saved above expected after a late start to the season (-2.1 GSAx). As we know, Vasilevskiy can provide top-notch goaltending on any given night due to his elite mechanics. The backup, Jonas Johansson ranks 89th in goals saved above expected this season (-8.9 GSAx).
While the Lightning’s goaltending is at a statistical disadvantage, the Hurricanes goaltending tends to be shaky at times. Furthermore, the Hurricanes plan to role Andersen as the 1A goaltender for the playoffs rather than splitting games with two solid netminders.
Goaltending: Tie
Final Analysis for the Tampa Bay Lightning and Carolina Hurricanes Playoff Preview
The Lightning and Hurricanes are two differently run teams. The Hurricanes are a defence-first-minded team, while the Lightning prioritizes offence. However, with the improvement of the Carolina offence at 5v5 and on the power play this season, we believe they would edge the Lightning in a seven-game playoff series.
Current Prediction: Carolina Wins in 6 or 7 games
Raw stats via NaturalStatTrick & MoneyPuck
Main Photo Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports
