With the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs inching closer, the Tampa Bay Lightning have likely secured a spot with their recent performance on the Western road trip. Tampa Bay holds the first Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference (39-25-7) with 85 points. As of today, the Lightning have four potential opponents they can play in the first round. We will first look at how the Lightning playoff preview matchup against the Florida Panthers.
Analyzing a Potential Lightning vs. Panthers Playoff Series
Offensive Players and Statistics Head-To-Head
Without question, both sides have high-powered superstars on offence. The Lightning boasts the NHL’s leading scorer in Nikita Kucherov, plus his goal-scoring linemate Brayden Point. The Lightning also have other solid primary scoring options in veteran Steven Stamkos and Brandon Hagel. As for the Panthers, two-way stud Aleksander Barkov and the clutch Matthew Tkachuk are household superstars. Add new 50-goal scorer Sam Reinhart to the mix, and that’s some of the best offensive firepower the league has to offer.
Moving to secondary scoring, both teams added two vital pieces on forward at the trade deadline. The Lightning traded for Anthony Duclair, who’s registered a point in every game post-deadline. He is an excellent fit on the top line with Tampa Bay’s superstars. Florida did some work to bolster the forward core, adding 32-year-old Vladimir Tarasenko. Analyzing third and fourth-line depth, the Panthers are much deeper on forward.
Looking at some offensive rate statistics, the Lightning have a slight edge. Tampa Bay scores 2.52 goals per hour at 5v5 (2.52 GF/60), which ranks 19th league-wide. On the other hand, Florida scores 2.31 goals per hour at 5v5 (2.31 GF/60), which ranks 25th league-wide. However, the Panther’s expected rates are much better than their actual goal-scoring rates. The Panthers record 2.75 expected goals per 60 at 5v5 (2.75 xGF/60), good enough for sixth in the league. As for the Lightning, their 2.41 expected goals per hour (2.41 xGF/60) rank 25th in the league at 5v5.
With that, both offensive groups have top-end talent. The Lightning get the edge in finishing talent and shooting, while the Panthers have the advantage with their depth and chance generation.
Offence: Tie
Defensive Players and Statistics Head-To-Head
On the defensive end, this matchup is very lopsided. While the Lightning have an elite puck-moving defenceman in Victor Hedman, the defensive depth is thin with the absence of Mikhail Sergachev. Meanwhile, the Panthers possess some of the best defensive play in the league, led by Aaron Ekblad and Gustav Forsling. Furthermore, Brandon Montour potted 73 points for the club last season and remains a threat on the man advantage.
The Lightning found a replacement for Sergachev by acquiring Matt Dumba at the trade deadline. Dumba is a physical defender, responsible on his end while knowing when to pinch for offence. The Panthers did most of their work on the blue line last summer, signing Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Niko Mikkola as free agents. Moreover, Dmitry Kulikov joined the roster to solidify the depth.
Now, moving into defensive rate statistics, the Panthers have a clear advantage. Florida surrenders 1.85 goals against per hour (1.85 GA/60) at 5v5, which ranks second in the league. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay allows 2.88 goals against per 60 at 5v5 (2.88 GA/60). The Panthers surrender one goal less than the Lightning on a 60-minute basis at 5v5 this season, which is remarkable. However, the Lightning’s shot quality-against rate is significantly better than their actual goals-against rate. The Lightning surrenders 2.5 expected goals against per hour (2.5 xGA/60), good enough for 14th in the league. On the other hand, the Panthers are elite in this defensive metric, allowing 2.37 expected goals against per 60 (2.37 xGA/60), which ranks fifth in the NHL.
While the Lightning seem brutal defensively on the surface, the team hasn’t gotten the best goaltending this season. However, this aspect does not take away Florida’s elite defensive play, as they have a clear advantage in this category.
Defence: Florida
Goaltending With Statistics Head-To-Head
Goalies being voodoo is a common cliche amongst the statistical hockey community, and this statement could not be more accurate. Year after year, goaltenders have the most variable statistical performances in the league compared to forwards and defenders. Goaltending statistics have historically been influential based on team systems or team defence.
However, backup goaltender Anthony Stolarz ranks second in 5v5 goals saved above expected in the NHL this season (18.7 GSAx). While Florida’s defensive system inflates his numbers, he’s played very impressive. As for Sergei Bobrovsky, he places tied for 15th in goals saved above expected at 5v5 in 2024 (7.6 GSAx).
Meanwhile, the Lightning goaltenders have struggled this season. After a back injury, Andrei Vasilevskiy ranks 89th in goals saved above expected this season (-10.5 GSAx). However, we know what Vasilevskiy is capable of come playoff time. As for the backup, Jonas Johansson places 83rd in goals saved above expected 5v5 (-7.6 GSAx).
While the Lightning goaltending is at a clear disadvantage, we know how good Vasilevskiy can be in the clutch come playoff time. However, after watching Bobrovsky’s last playoffs, the edge goes to Florida.
Goaltending: Florida
Final Analysis
The Battle of Florida is an enticing playoff series for a first-round matchup. The two teams despise one another, and this series would attract an abundance of media coverage. The Lightning are nearing the end of their Stanley Cup Window, while the Panthers are in their prime years as a top contender. With a brief analysis, we believe the Panthers would defeat the Lightning in a dual to the death.
Current Prediction: Florida Wins in 6 or 7 games
Raw stats via NaturalStatTrick & MoneyPuck
Main Photo: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
