The Tampa Bay Lightning trade deadline will be interesting to watch this season. Over the last several seasons, they’ve been active with deals. It started with Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow. More recently, it has been Tanner Jeannot and Michael Eyssimont. This season, there is a question of what the Lightning should do; buy or sell? Here at Last Word, Kyle Pereira and Jack Pallotta will start a series where they look at some potential trades. Let’s say they buy, who do they get? What do they give up? Today, we look at Erik Johnson of the Buffalo Sabres. Johnson’s name is linked to the Lightning ahead of the trade deadline.
Disclaimer: The players featured in these articles aren’t always linked to the Lightning but have been made available in some capacity this season. These pieces are observing whether Tampa Bay should target them and what the cost would be if they did.
Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline: Erik Johnson
After roughly two seasons with the team that drafted him, the first overall pick of the 2006 NHL entry draft joined the Colorado Avalanche. Erik Johnson carved out a solid career with the Avalanche, spending 12 seasons with the franchise and capturing the Stanley Cup in 2022. After a disappointing 2023 season, the veteran defender hit the free agency market at age 35. Johnson needed a change in scenery. His days in Colorado were long overdue.
In July 2023, the Sabres signed Johnson to a one-year contract with a cap hit of $3.25 million for the season. Don Granato prepared to lead the young, electric Sabres to the playoffs after a promising ending to the 2022-23 campaign. Johnson signed to establish a veteran presence on the blue line and help keep the puck out of the net. However, the Sabres have severely underperformed relative to expectations. With the trade deadline approaching, the Sabres will sell again this season and recuperate assets. With Johnson linked to Tampa Bay via Michael Augello, does acquiring the veteran defender make sense?
Johnson Scouting Report
A physical defenceman who takes care of his own zone, Johnson fits a classical shutdown archetype. Johnson throws his weight around and provides solid leadership presence, something the Sabres needed desperately. Johnson does not bring much offence to the table, which is concerning for a team like the Lightning that lacks secondary scoring.
Nearing the 1,000 games plateau, Johnson has 91 goals and 249 assists for 340 points in 969 career games. His most productive season came in 2010 with the St. Louis Blues, where Johnson recorded ten goals and 29 assists for 39 points in 79 games. In 49 games with Buffalo this season, Johnson has three goals and no assists for three points. Based on the scouting report, the Lightning should not target a defenceman like Johnson. However, let’s analyze his strengths and weaknesses to understand why.
Johnson’s Strengths
At this stage in his career, Johnson has adapted his play style to a faster game. After all, Johnson turns 36 years old next month and is not getting younger. Furthermore, a physical style of play causes wear and tear on the human body much quicker, and Johnson has dealt with his fair share of injuries. Johnson’s strength is his ability to act as a shooting threat in the offensive zone this season under Head Coach Granato. Hand-tracked microstats from All Three Zones rank Johnson in the 71st percentile of shots per hour amongst defencemen this season. Moreover, he places in the 59th percentile of shots off high-danger passes per 60.
The Lightning could use more shots and involvement from their defencemen in the offensive zone at even strength. The Lightning control 58.23% of the point passes at 5v5 in three recently tracked games of our microstats tracking project here at Last Word. While Johnson frequently retrieves pucks in the defensive zone, are his puck touches leading to clean zone exits?
The Concerns for Johnson
To answer the question from the previous paragraph, Johnson remains a disaster on the breakout. Johnson ranks in the 2nd percentile of botched retrievals per hour. In other words, Johnson’s touches are constantly disrupted or intercepted by opposing forecheckers. In addition, he places in the 5th percentile of failed zone exit percentage this season in Buffalo. The last thing the Lightning needs is another turnover machine on the back end. The Lightning have dealt with their fair share of poor puck management to start the season.
Johnson’s offensive game isn’t much to work with. His passing and zone-entry statistics are awful. With secondary scoring being a weakness of the Lightning, what will trading for Johnson improve exactly? What’s the long-term upside to acquiring his services? If the goal is to add a veteran to the roster, the Lightning have multiple two-time Stanley Cup champions. This roster needs to get younger and quicker heading into the playoffs. Johnson is useless past a 25-game stint with the team in March and April. However, let’s say Julien BriseBois wants to make an offer for Johnson. What could the framework for a hypothetical trade look like?
What It Would (Likely) Take To Acquire Johnson
Defenders of Johnson’s age approaching the tail end of their careers get moved at the trade deadline every year. However, one comparable trade from the 2022 deadline is identical. Justin Braun joined the New York Rangers in exchange for a 2023 third-round pick. Braun and Johnson are right-handed, physical defencemen who play a shutdown role. Below is a hypothetical trade offer for Johnson.
Tampa Bay acquires: Erik Johnson (D)
Buffalo acquires: 2025 third-round pick
How Both Sides Benefit From the Trade
The Lightning are without arguably their second-best defenceman for the remainder of the 2024 season. Adding Johnson would establish immediate stability on the back end and likely improve the defensive metrics of the team. Plus, Johnson carries a heavy shot from the blue line that the Bolts can utilize in their offensive attack. For the Lightning, a veteran presence that can round out an incomplete defensive core. For the Sabres, a third-round draft choice in exchange for a free agent signing that did not work out with the organization.
Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline: In Or Out On Johnson
Johnson is a traditional, old-school defenceman who throws his body around and focuses on defending his net at all costs. NHL General Managers historically love these defencemen despite their hindered impact in the modern game. Johnson turns 36 years old next month, and his statistics are not eye-opening. He has no room for growth and is steadily declining. In addition, Johnson provides no upside for the future, something Tampa Bay must begin to prioritize at this stage in the contention window.
With Mikhail Sergachev done for the season due to a leg injury, the Lightning now have $8.5 million in cap space to work with at the trade deadline. While replacing Sergachev seems like a priority, the AHL depth of the Syracuse Crunch has been phenomenal. Emil Martinsen Lilleberg and Maxwell Crozier have been pleasant surprises on the blue line and look like potential full-time roster players next season. Why throw away assets to acquire Johnson and ruin the defensive chemistry? The Lightning are better off acquiring a younger, long-term option on the back end. However, the best-case scenario is a middle-six forward.
Advanced percentiles via AllThreeZones and HockeyViz (paid subscription required)
Raw stats via NaturalStatTrick & EvolvingHockey
Lightning tracked stats via Last Word (Kyle Pereira and Jack Pallotta)
Main Photo Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports
