The Tampa Bay Lightning trade deadline will be interesting to watch this season. Over the last several seasons, they’ve been active with deals. It started with Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow. More recently, it has been Tanner Jeannot and Michael Eyssimont. This season, there is a question of what the Lightning should do; buy or sell? Here at Last Word, Kyle Pereira and Jack Pallotta will start a series where they look at some potential trades. Let’s say they buy, who do they get? What do they give up? Today, we look at defenceman Urho Vaakanainen of the Anaheim Ducks.
Disclaimer: The players featured in these articles aren’t always linked to the Lightning but have been made available in some capacity this season. These pieces are observing whether Tampa should target them and what the cost would be if they did.
Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline: Urho Vaakanainen
25-year-old defenceman Urho Vaakanainen is an interesting defender to consider when looking at Lightning trade candidates. For one, it is important to point out that it seems likely that the Ducks will re-sign the young defender. That, and he has had injury issues in his career, making this season his first with 30 or more games in the NHL (he’s played 43). Meanwhile, since turning pro, he has played a combined 32, 59, 22, 52, 24 and 43 games in each of the last six seasons. However, he is a left-shot defender, something the Lightning need with Mikhail Sergachev done for the season. Plus, he has a very low salary, at $850,000, making him very affordable.
As mentioned previously, Vaakanainen has played 43 games this season, all at the NHL level. Playing now for the Ducks, he has scored nine points this year. Prior to joining the Ducks in the 2021-22 season he had been playing for the Boston Bruins who drafted him 18th overall in the 2017 NHL draft. In his career, spanning six years, Vaakanainen has scored 19 points in 111 games. Not known as a scorer, what else does Vaakanainen bring to the table?
Vaakanainen Scouting Report
The Lightning defence core isn’t exactly fast. Victor Hedman is a big body, who for years was an enigma with his size and skating combo. But that hasn’t been the case for a couple seasons now. He’s significantly slower, or the game has simply gotten much faster. Nick Perbix, Darren Raddysh, and Calvin de Haan are decent skaters, but don’t particularly jump off the page as great skaters. Emil Martinsen Lilleberg and Maxwell Crozier, the two rookies, are solid skaters. Crozier especially is a strong skater. But Julien BriseBois has notoriously replaced rookies or less experienced players once the season came closer to game 82. Then, there’s Erik Cernak, who plays a heavier game, but isn’t a bad skater. Overall, their defence is largely made up of average or above average skaters. Vaakanainen could help that department.
Vaakanainen is a really good skater. Adding speed to the back-end would certainly help, especially against top competition. Too many times this season, Hedman has fallen victim to chip-and-chases past him, leading to scoring chances. In fact, in the January 27th game against New Jersey, there was a prime example leading to a goal against (below). Adding more speed to gel with the size of the back-end could be supremely helpful, especially since Mikhail Sergachev would normally be the one to do so.
I'm working on a Urho Vaakanainen piece about if he'd be a fit for Tampa. As far as I know he isn't linked yet. But he provides better skating on the back end, something the Lightning lack.
Putting him in for faster forwards could prevent plays like this against Hedman #GoBolts pic.twitter.com/NWmsRtBVdM
— Kyle Pereira (@pereira_report) February 13, 2024
Vaakanainen’s Strengths
Vaakanainen’s skating, as mentioned earlier. It’s an intriguing addition to the Lightning back-end for sure. But, with that skating, he does well from the point. The Lightning love activating the defenders at the point to create offence. Whether that’s pinching in and playing low in the zone on occasion or shooting the puck. Vaakanainen isn’t necessarily a shooter (46 shots on goal this season) but he moves well at the point with his skating. He’s also really smart at pinching in and extending the offensive pressure. Additionally, he isn’t afraid to play down low in the offensive zone when there’s an opportunity to jump in.
Meanwhile, he is third amongst Ducks defenders (with at least 100 minutes of ice time) in expected goals for percentage (43.4%). At five-on-five, that number jumps to 49.3%, which is second amongst Ducks defenders (all according to MoneyPuck). Then, according to Evolving Hockey, Vaakanainen ranks in the 89th percentile of defensive impact amongst all NHL defenders. On Natural Stat Trick, he is first amongst Ducks defenders with 200+ minutes of ice time at five-on-five (23.66). He’s 22nd in the league in expected goals against amongst defenders with 500+ minutes of ice time at five on five.
Vaakanainen’s Concerns
If the Tampa Bay Lightning are targeting him at the trade deadline, the major thing for Vaakanainen is this: the scheme in Anaheim. They play a soft man coverage system. That may sound confusing, this isn’t Swiftball football. What that means is Vaakanainen takes a “man” or a forward to defend, based on the situation. If that guy strays too far from his spot, he will switch off for a new “man” to cover. That scheme used to be used by the Lightning, back when they won two cups. But Blashill, at the start of last season, switched to more of a zone coverage scheme. Essentially, defenders stay in an area and cover their ground. There were growing pains with this new system, but the mistakes have settled down.
That being said, Vaakanainen would have to learn an entirely different scheme, in a short span, with new coaches and teammates. That is a tall task for anyone, let alone a player who has played just a hair over 100 NHL games. That, and his injury history is concerning. If they let go of a lot for him, and he gets injured, that’ll hurt big time. Meanwhile, Cernak is another injury prone player. While Vaakanainen is intriguing, can he be trusted to stay healthy in a new scheme where the Lightning play more physically?
Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline: What A Vaakanainen Trade (Could) Cost
Eric Stephens of The Athletic posted a mailbag on February 2nd (linked, subscription required) where he discussed Vaakanainen. He mentioned it’s likely he sticks with the Ducks, as he is 25 years old still, and a former first. But, if he were to be dealt, Stephens specifically mentions a “young forward” as the return if he were to be dealt. So, a young forward… what exactly does that equate to? For one, it means the Ducks are likely only interested in an established prospect of some kind. Or, at least, a prospect that has been developing for a bit now.
From Tampa Bay’s perspective, that’s good and bad. They don’t have the prospect cupboard to really pick from and outbid another team with. But, they may not have to part ways with a draft pick, which will aid in their likely attempt to add another piece. That said, here are two offers: one best-case, one worst-case. Essentially, highest offer versus lowest offer.
High-cost trade:
Tampa Bay Lightning acquire Vaakanainen
Anaheim Ducks acquire Jack Finley, Cole Koepke, 2025 4th round pick
Low-cost trade:
Lightning acquire Vaakanainen
Ducks acquire Isaac Howard, Gage Goncalves, 2025 6th round pick
Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline: In Or Out On Vaakanainen
Looking at the big picture, Vaakanainen seemingly won’t be super expensive. Yet, if they pay the higher end, they lose Goncalves and Howard. That’s a young player who showed some positive traits in his first few swings in the NHL, and their best prospect in their system. But, if the deal falls somewhere in between, it could be an excellent swing. With the Ducks having a logjam on the left side, again, Vaakanainen may be had for a good price.
His speed, defensive abilities displayed this season, and the fact he plays the left side well make him a very intriguing trade target. Now, he likely could struggle early with the schematic differences, and it could be a risk that fires back on us. But sometimes, you have to make those swings. The potential there is good enough to say… we here at Last Word are in.
Raw NHL stats and per game stats via Hockey-Reference
Advanced stats from Money Puck, Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick
Main Photo: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
