Things are happening for Michael Andlauer and the Ottawa Senators causing rumours to stir across the NHL. It seems the changes his management staff have made might be turning the corner for the club. Oh, and also the fact that the team has few injuries. Pinto is playing, they have their two top goaltenders, and each of Tkachuk and Chabot are on fire right now. In terms of the rumours surrounding the upcoming trade deadline, there is one thing to keep in mind. Steve Staios had mentioned that the team will be cautious about making a trade at the deadline as a buyer. Why? Since teams tend to pay a premium for assets at the deadline.
The Ottawa Senators Recent Play Could Influence NHL Trade Deadline Rumours
Despite Brady’s recent optimism, the Senators do not really see themselves as playoff contenders despite their great run recently. When interim Head Coach Jacques Martin first took over, the Senators were a little slow out of the gate. In the club’s first 13 games with him at the helm, they had a 4.46 GAA and went 4-9-0. Conversely, since that time, the club has figured out how to battle, and ultimately win. They have their first two regulation tie points of the season. They have been outscoring teams by just under a goal a game. Moreover, their record is an impressive 7-1-2. You know, a playoff team.
The team is coming together, and maybe that’s what the five-game suspension of Morgan Rielly caused. As Garrioch put it during the first intermission of the game last night: “Rielly got exactly what he deserved.” The Sens are forming an identity and it is bringing them together. Ridly Greig taking that empty-net slapshot has brought the players and fans together in support of his actions. We knew they were tight in the locker room, but a shift is coming to the leadership and dependability on the ice product too. That’s why the rumours coming up are so relevant to what the big picture means for this team.
The Ottawa Senators Will be Roster Shuffling Regardless
First, to get some of the administrative stuff out of the way, which does tie into trades. In the 6-3 victory over the Columbus Blue Jackets Tuesday evening, we saw that the club was missing two defencemen, Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub. Both injuries are somewhat unknown in severity, but the club was unable to recall a piece.
Partly due to the mismanagement of the previous regime, but the Sens only had $25K of cap space. Therefore, in order to be able to call up a player on an emergency call-up basis, they would not qualify to do so until Thursday. Also, the recall needs to make less than the $875K amount. In that case, it seems Max Guenette would be the leading candidate to get the callup. As a result of this mismanagement though, it would make sense the Senators need to be sellers. They somehow need to come up with ideas to move monetary assets to free up cap space. Not even for any moves in particular, just to have some breathing room in their day-to-day roster moves. Is this team a buyer or seller at the trade deadline? Well for a spoil, a seller, but here are some notes on both sides of the coin.
The Sens are Sell, Sell, Sell
Dominik Kubalik
For Staios and his staff, the idea has been that the Sens have been shopping him all along. The problem you ask? Nobody wants him. For example, he has a career of 5.4 CF% Rel, but this year he is at -6.8. He does have nine goals through 45 games this year, but that is where the offence begins and ends. He only has 12 points, and that is while getting regular second power play shifts. Additionally, he was brought in to be a middle-six producer, but has been unable to do so.
Being the throw-in piece on return from Alex DeBrincat, at the time seemed great. However, given his lack of consistency, there just doesn’t seem to be a great fit in Ottawa. He was even healthy scratched a couple of times recently. If the Sens can move his $2.5M on an expiring contract, and pick up an asset, why wouldn’t they? It would just give them a bit of flexibility to make roster shuffles but also free up cap space in general for a right-shot defenceman.
Vladimir Tarasenko
Well there are a few things we know about Vladimir Tarasenko’s situation. First of all, he has been going through agents, which means he wants one to get him a contract he wants. There were rumours that Tarasenko is looking for a contract he can retire on. Will that be in Ottawa? He seems to like it there, so it very well could be. But he probably wants a shot at a cup run this Spring. Also, trading him would net an asset for the team on essentially an expiring contract in the offseason. For instance, keeping him doesn’t make sense if the Senators aren’t a playoff team only to lose him in the offseason. In saying that, who Tarasenko finishes the 2023-24 season doesn’t appear to have much influence on where he starts 2024-25. The Sens could try the old switcheroo, and trade him at the deadline. Then, just ink him in the offseason as if he’s never left.
The Senators Buyers Club
Now the reason the Senators probably won’t be buyers, again just points to Staios’ comments. And it is a very fair point, at the deadline, you will pay a premium. Conversely, the Sens acquisition of Jakob Chychrun would be considered an exception to the rule. Back to Garrioch’s specific rumour-fueled discussion, two names stand out as possibilities.
Chris Tanev
We have heard the Chris Tanev NHL trade deadline rumours and some for the Ottawa Senators. He’s a right-shot defenceman, a decent skater. Also, he’s a veteran and would fit the bill as a ‘professional.’ In contrast, he has a no-trade clause, which he has yet to remove. One keenly debatable topic on Tanev is his age. At 34, does he provide decent value for the foreseeable future? Maybe the up to two years of reliability he provides the Sens prospects enough time. Their left side is more than fine, it’s just the right side that needs help. The last question is, will Calgary even be sellers? Andrei Kuzmenko seems to be re-igniting some of the fire, in particular the spark for Jonathan Huberdeau.
Matt Dumba
The Regina, Saskatchewan native is still in his 20s (he turns 30 in July). The biggest question for Dumba is, has there been a negative regression in his skills? The Arizona Coyotes have been a bit of a surprise this year, and Dumba plays over 20 minutes a night for them. However, looking at his statistical performance it does bring into question his effectiveness. He has only six points through 47 games, but likely caused by the fact he doesn’t get much power play time. Overall his CF% Rel is down at -5.8, again influenced by the fact he does kill penalties.
He is in all likelihood removed from the player that put up 50 points in 2017-18 for the Minnesota Wild. On the other hand, the Senators have their power play gurus. Dumba is still a strong skater and ticks the boxes the team is looking for. The ice time alone would be a contributing factor to his value to the Ottawa Senators for the 2024-25 campaign. The idea is whether the Coyotes will even be sellers. Garrioch specifically referenced Dumba as a great ‘own rental’ type player. In other words, the Coyotes would be better off keeping him if they were buyers. In any case, the offseason might end up being the right time for such a move.
Some Clarity May Be on the Horizon
To summarize the Ottawa Senators role in NHL trade deadline rumours, it is becoming more clear. They have gotten hot, but it does seem like it would be difficult to consider them buyers in 2024. The offseason will be a different story. Additionally, they have pieces on expiring contracts they can and would like to move for assets in return. Furthermore, their targets of right-shot defencemen, can wait until the summer. This way, their values won’t be so overpriced as competing against playoff contenders will to pay a premium for the services.
Main photo: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
