Today’s NHL Predictions features an Atlantic Division rivalry. We will look at Tampa Bay Lightning (28-20-5) predictions, as they take on the Boston Bruins (32-11-9). On Saturday night, the Lightning got back on track with a win over the Columbus Blue Jackets. Brandon Hagel recorded three primary points in the win. In addition, Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 33 out of 35 shots in goal.
On the other side of this matchup, the Bruins remain at the top of the NHL standings. David Pastrnak leads the charge with 33 goals and 42 assists for 75 points in 52 games. Moreover, this total ranks third league-wide in the NHL scoring race. Increased production from unfamiliar faces like Charlie Coyle and James van Riemsdyk have again propelled Boston to the top of the Atlantic Division.
Tampa Bay displayed their best hockey ahead of the All-Star break. Their performance in the 2024 calendar year has set a solid base in the playoff race for the rest of the season. After two rough losses in New York, the Lightning will look to rack up more wins as we approach the NHL Trade Deadline. While the Bolts looked like sellers in the Fall, the tide has turned. Until then, here are three keys to victory for the Lightning in this matchup.
NHL Predictions: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Boston Bruins
Three Keys to Victory for Tampa Bay
Pass-To-Shot Execution
Placing the puck on the net is a cliche key to victory on a surface level, but in hindsight is vital for Tampa Bay. Our microstats tracking project for the Lightning here at Last Word proves the importance of Tampa Bay shooting the puck more frequently. In three tracked games, the Lightning got outplayed in terms of shots on net at 5v5. The team was outshot on the rush by a ratio of 20 to 28 (41.67 RSHT%). Furthermore, the Lightning got outshot by a ratio of 23 to 27 on the cycle (46.00 C/FSHT%).
However, if we go a step deeper, the Lightning continue to perform well in the passing department of our statistics. They find the right touches in the offensive zone, but the pass-to-shot execution is not smooth. The Lightning completed seven more passes to the slot than their opponents (64.00 SLTP%). Moreover, the Lightning control 55.56% of the cross-slot passes at 5v5 (55.56 CSLT%). Lastly, the Bolts completed seven goal-line passes compared to their opponents’ total of two (77.78 GLP%). In short, the Lightning move the puck exceptionally well in the offensive zone, but the team cannot turn those passes into shots on the net. Tampa Bay must find a way to generate more shots directly off their passes.
Solve The Bruins Goaltending
The power of the Bruins comes between the pipes. Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark are the best goaltending duo in the league, and there is no debate. Both goaltenders continue to post superb statistics and analytics. Both goaltenders are at the top of the NHL in save percentage. Swayman has posted a .922 save percentage (.922 Sv%), and Ullmark has recorded a .916 save percentage (.916 Sv%). Both percentages rank top ten in the league this season.
Moreover, Swayman and Ullmark rank top ten in Moneypuck’s goals saved above expected model (GSAx). Swayman ranks fifth with 12.6 goals saved above expected (12.6 GSAx), and Ullmark ranks sixth with 12.5 goals saved above expected (12.5 GSAx). No matter who the Bolts face, they are in for a test. The Lightning must continue to rely on their shooting talent to find the back of the net. The team must get the puck moving cross-ice and keep finding those high-danger touches that drive shooting percentage sky-high.
Lock Down David Pastrnak
The Boston offence is not complex relative to their place in the standings. The Bruins keep their system simple under Head Coach Jim Montgomery. The team scoring distribution is roughly even throughout the lineup, except for one superstar. Pastrnak has established himself as one of the best players in the NHL over the past two seasons. His offensive dominance is impossible to ignore for Boston’s opponents. Pastrank is a threat off the rush and fires pucks on the net like candy. He has silky hands that can undress defenders or deke goaltenders in tight. The Lightning will find success shadowing Anthony Cirelli‘s line against Pastrnak. Cirelli and Hagel play S-tier defence as forwards in the entire league. Their shutdown abilities must neutralize Pastrank offensively for the Bolts to win this game.
Prediction Time
The Lightning and Bruins meet for the third time this season at TD Garden. The season series is even thus far. The Lightning beat the Bruins in overtime at home, and the Bruins dominated play on their home ice. The Lightning will be without Mikhail Sergachev on the blue line for the remainder of the season. The Russian defender is in our thoughts and prayers for a speedy recovery. This matchup is a statement game for the Tampa Bay Lightning, but we anticipate the Bruins grabbing two points in this round of predictions.
Prediction: Boston wins 4-3
Microstats via LastWordOnSports (Jack Pallotta and Kyle Pereira)
Raw statistics via ESPN
Goaltending Analytics via MoneyPuck
Main Photo Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
