Heading into the 2024 NHL trade deadline, we take a look at the most likely Ottawa Senators to be on the move. Here we will assign a trade value letter grade to each of the players identified as possible targets. Of course, when we discuss trade value there are a couple of criteria to consider. First of all, whether the player was involved in a trade rumour. Then it needs to be considered whether the rumour was credible or just for fodder. The other points to consider are more about the new management regime under the President of Hockey Operations and General Manager, Steve Staios. The management has established they want professionals. Also, the team has a young, core of untouchables.
The Statistics Analyzed for Ottawa Senators Trade Value for the Upcoming Deadline
These are all things to keep in mind as we go through setting the respective trade values. The type of statistical metrics we analyzed were points per 60 minutes and situationally (special teams time). Also, we explored Corsi, point share, blocks, and hits. Further, we put weight based on contract information such as annual salary and expiry timing. With all things being considered, of the 10 Senator skaters we reviewed, Drake Batherson had the highest trade value. So, why exactly did we come to that conclusion?
Top Ottawa Senators Trade Value Piece Ahead of the Deadline: Drake Batherson (A)
What makes ‘the Bathman’ the best of the group? For Drake, a big part of it is his contract. At under $5 M, signed until 2027, that is a big factor. He has very strong statistics with his three-year average PP60 at 2.53. From a high level and the eye test, he throws hits, and he scores. In 2021-22 he scored 44 points in 46 games, and this year has 38 points in 47 games. One further thing is that he is only 25. A player of his size will learn how to use his abilities and can continue to use smarts to maintain great point production for the next number of years. For all these reasons, Drake takes the top spot and has an ‘A’ value overall on the open trade market.
Jakob Chychrun (A)
A close second, and still an ‘A’ rating, we find Jakob Chychrun. And actually, he has some similar attributes to Batherson. For example, he is also 25 and makes a little under $400,000 less than Batherson. One difference is that his contract expires at the end of next season. Furthermore, watching Chychrun you realize he is just a presence on the ice. The other aspect to consider with Chychrun is he did flat-out say that trade rumours were ridiculous. He has family ties to the Ottawa area, and it seems like such a fit for him here. If only it weren’t for the Senators abundance of left-shot defencemen, and their desire to find a top-pairing right-shot guy.
Statistically, Chychrun shines as well. He plays over 22 and a half minutes a night and has scored eight goals and added 20 assists in 47 games. Perhaps most impressively is on the power play. He comes in at 5.3 for power play points per 60 minutes this year. This is noteworthy for the Sens, as they haven’t been great on the power play. One thing is for sure, if the Senators do trade Chychrun, they will be expecting a huge return.
Claude Giroux (B)
Next, we land on the ‘Claude Father’ Claude Giroux. At age 36, Giroux still gets it done analytically. He has 42 points through 47 games this season. In addition, his CF% Rel is 8.9. His three-year points per 60 minutes is still very high at 2.84. Also, and why he would be so valuable is his faceoff prowess. This leads him to be a very important specialty teams presence. Conversely, his drawbacks would be his age and the accompanying $6.5 million price tag. He would be a great offensive presence addition to any playoff team for this year and next.
Vladimir Tarasenko (B)
Follow up one veteran, with another, this time one with a Stanley Cup championship to his name. Vladimir Tarasenko is still a threat offensively and can play on the top power play. This year he has 13 goals and 20 assists for 33 points in 45 games. Also, he has maintained scoring consistency with three-year points per 60 of 3.08. There was a report that surfaced, suggesting that Tarasenko’s offseason contract would ideally be one he can retire on. So, that is definitely a consideration. But, for a playoff rental player, with an expiring contract, there is little risk for the acquiring team. It also would mean the Senators organization would gain a future asset in return.
Thomas Chabot (B)
Thomas Chabot has been the Senators most important defenceman for several years now. He commands his $8 million price tag. In 2023-24, he plays nearly 24 minutes a night, has 15 points in 25 games, and a CF% Rel of 4.3. These are the types of numbers he has consistently produced in the NHL. Additionally, he quarterbacks the top power play unit, and it isn’t the same without him. At 27, Chabot is ready to win. Therefore, Chabot has a high trade value of a ‘B’ but it isn’t due to the lack of production. The reason his rating isn’t higher is the salary, and he would be difficult to trade as a result.
Joshua Norris (C)
If you are trading for Josh Norris, you are acquiring a top-six centre. He’s someone who’s scored 35 goals in the NHL and is only 24. The main downside of Norris is injury history and resultant lack of consistency. This year Norris hasn’t seemed to have found a solid offensive rhythm. He has 12 goals and 12 assists through 40 games, with a mediocre 12.1 shooting percentage. He plays over 18 minutes a game and has a CF% Rel of 7.7. Hence, there is a strong foundation to play with in Norris’ game, and why he would be an extremely valuable addition. Especially so if he can get back to the scoring rate he has shown he can achieve. However, in terms of trade value, his $8 million annual cap hit, places him at a letter grade of C.
The Rest of the Ottawa Senators Who Would be Difficult to Trade at the Deadline: Jacob Bernard-Docker (D)
The problem with the Senators roster right now is the very players that are the best trade assets, are the players the team needs. A right-hand shot that can play top-four minutes is one of the team’s biggest needs. Unfortunately, for JBD and the Senators organization, the 23-year-old defenceman still has a lot of development to do.
The Senators cannot justify putting him on the top pairing and bumping up his 15 minutes of ice time significantly. This also makes it difficult to increase his playing responsibility to boost his trade stock. In contrast, there is some upside in trading him. He makes only $805K until the end of 2024-25. He does kill penalties, and despite the low -6.7 CF% Rel, he blocks shots effectively to help offset them. Could he be a piece to add in a major move for a top-flight right-hand shot defenceman? Definitely, but we shall see what Staios decides to do.
Mathieu Joseph (D)
Joseph has done nothing but boost his trade stock this year. He has 23 points in 37 games, which will help bump up his disappointing three-year points per 60 of 1.69. Moreover, he makes just under $3M/year until the end of 2025-26. If he can produce, his potential new team would get good value at that amount. Also, for the Senators it helps clear up some valuable cap space.
However, Joseph is helpful for the Senators forward group, and his speed is one key reason. We also have him with a poor trade value. Why? He has a very bad CF% rel for a forward at -6.8. This could be explained by his time spent killing penalties, which he has shown to be effective yet. But he needs to be better and prove it can be sustained. Is he worth the price tag? It probably makes the most sense to stay put, given the lack of potential return.
Erik Brannstrom (D)
Brannstrom is a product of his environment. He is essentially the number four, left-shot defenceman on the depth chart. In addition, he plays 14 minutes a night and doesn’t get power play time. It is a challenge for him to build on his strengths, which is his potential offensive upside. He is a very strong skater which helps him get the opportunities he does get such as on the PK. This is a business and you need to show you deserve more ice time. That means that you need to take time away from players higher on the depth chart. Branny has so far been unable to do that and it has caused a stall in his development. Combined with a $2M price tag, he is not an overly appealing asset. Even though he makes a lot of sense to move for the Sens, if Staios can’t convince a GM of his upside, he may have to bite the bullet and take what he can get. Making a move here for the Ottawa Senators at the trade deadline would be difficult.
Dominik Kubalik (F)
It’s hard not to feel for some of the Sens here and Kubalik fits that description. It seemed to be a great fit, bringing in a 30-goal scorer as a middle-six piece. This was as a throw-in piece in the necessary offseason Alex DeBrincat trade. But it just wasn’t really a trade the Sens wanted to make. Kubalik’s game has suffered from a lack of consistent line combinations. He does have nine goals in 43 games, but that is where the positives end. Also, this is a result of an effective 14.8 shooting percentage. He has a bad point share rating of 0.2 and an equally bad CF% Rel of -0.2. The Corsi rating is made all the more worse when you consider he gets regular second power play time and doesn’t kill penalties. He makes $2.5 M on an expiring contract, but is his risk worth the potential reward for a team seeking a Stanley Cup? It is hard to justify. Therefore, we land at the lowest trade value for the Ottawa Senators heading into the deadline time.
Main photo: Per Haljestam-USA TODAY Sports
