The Tampa Bay Lightning trade deadline will be interesting to watch this season. Over the last several seasons, they’ve been active with deals. It started with Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow. More recently, it has been Tanner Jeannot and Michael Eyssimont. This season, there is a question of what the Lightning should do; buy or sell? Here at Last Word, Kyle Pereira and Jack Pallotta will start a series where they look at some potential trades. Let’s say they buy, who do they get? What do they give up? Today, we look at Adam Henrique of the Anaheim Ducks.
Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline: Adam Henrique
Henrique, a long-time NHL veteran, has played nearly 900 NHL games. He started back in 2010-11, playing just one game, after being selected 82nd overall in the 2008 NHL draft by the New Jersey Devils. After his debut in 2010-11, he became a full-time NHLer with the Devils, scoring 51 points (16 goals and 35 assists) in 74 games. He would play another five full seasons with the Devils, before being traded in the midst of his eighth season with the big club. Overall, he scored 257 points in 455 games with the Devils. In 2011-12, the Devils went to the Stanley Cup finals, and Henrique played a key role with 13 points in 24 games.
Since joining the Ducks in 2017-18, he has scored 255 points in 424 games, and counting. However, he has only seen four playoff games with the Ducks and did not record a point. This season, Henrique has recorded 33 points in 49 games, which is good for 0.67 points per game. He is well-balanced between scoring goals and adding assists, with 15 goals and 18 assists this season. In his career, that’s still reflected, with 254 goals and 258 assists. So, what traits outside of just the counting stats make him a potentially attractive option for the Lightning?
Henrique Scouting Report
Watching the film, Henrique looked so similar to that of Alex Killorn. With the puck, Henrique is very simple and straightforward. He does not wow anyone with highlight reel dangles or spin-o-rama passes. He’ll make the simple play, get into a spot, and help finish plays off. Usually, he is at his best away from the puck in the offensive zone. On the rush, he will take a seat and let his linemates do the work, while he crashes the slot area. This season, and in seasons prior, he does an excellent job getting to rebounds and being able to find pucks amidst chaos to score. That sort of poised game would fit in well with the Lightning middle and bottom-six forward groups.
Another comparison with Killorn is the simple nature of his game which leads to a ton of consistency. Henrique is not very noticeable on a shift-by-shift basis for the right reasons: he does not make mistakes often. A very reliable and smart forward, he won’t push the pace much and be a dynamic presence, but he will settle things down and play with more patience and poise. When he does make “mistakes” it generally isn’t a mental error. It usually comes down to not having the skill to stickhandle past an opponent, leading to turnovers. But those situations are few and far between. What you get from Henrique is what you will get every game: not super dynamic or explosive, but simple and consistent.
Henrique’s Strengths
The strengths as it pertains to the Lightning is simple: he does not make mistakes. This goes a lot further than the forward core, as the defence is also guilty of this. But early in the season, the Lightning made simple mental errors that were avoidable. But while that has been cleaned up, there are still some inconsistencies that persist. Adding someone like Henrique who can calm the game down and let everyone settle in, could be exactly the presence they need.
To explain further, the Lightning forwards have a combined 150 offensive zone giveaways. That’s across eight games tracked this season, with 15 forwards altogether. Essentially, that’s 10 giveaways per player, or at least one giveaway for each in every game. That’s not terrible, of course. However, 93 of those giveaways belong to seven of those forwards. Three of them are Conor Sheary (10), Nick Paul (12) and Eyssimont (11). Those three play almost exclusively in the middle six. Pairing them up with a more poised puck carrier, and someone who can settle the play down to limit giveaways, could help the overall efficiency of the depth of the lineup.
The Concerns For Henrique
The main concern has less to do with any weaknesses in Henrique’s game and more about the lack of particular traits. While adding a proven leader and veteran who has been one of the faces of consistency for so long could really help, the Lightning need more scoring from the depth pieces they have. A lot of offence is generated through the transitional game, which is dominated by Tampa’s first line, but not other lines. Henrique does not provide much value with entries either. He is below replacement level in every zone entry metric that AllThreeZones has except for one (controlled entry with scoring chance percentage). While it’s clear he can generate chances off the rush well, per the data, he isn’t involved and generally isn’t very successful often.
Another issue is his offensive metrics this season. He is below replacement level in every category within the “general offence” tab per AllThreeZones. That includes shots, shot assists, primary contributions, total shot contributions, chance contributions, chances, and rebounds created (all metrics set to a per 60-minute rate). He’s also below replacement level in point pass set-ups, which is a primary strategy used by Lightning forwards, activating defenders like Victor Hedman and Mikhail Sergachev (when healthy). There just may not be a clear fit stylistically.
What It Would (Likely) Take To Adam Henrique
There are two trades that would be somewhat similar to a Henrique deal. The first is the Ryan O’Reilly three-way trade to Toronto. They had to get St. Louis and Minnesota to retain salary on the deal, which was worth more than Henrique’s current deal. Toronto let go of Adam Gaudette, Mikhail Abramov, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks, to get the salary down. That’s a massive haul that Tampa likely cannot give up.
Next, Max Domi going to Carolina was the second comparable trade. Domi, involved in another three-way deal, was taken by Carolina in exchange for Aidan Hreschuk and Yegor Korshkov. Those two prospects aren’t A-level prospects, but they are still solid. The depth in the prospect cupboard in Tampa is very bare; in fact, cobwebs are starting to develop in the nooks in said cupboard. However, those two are about the equivalent of a second and third-round pick, roughly.
Henrique’s current deal is $5,825,000. With one team retaining half ($2,912,500) and a third team retaining half of that ($1,456,250), the Lightning would be cap-compliant with a bit of a shuffle. That shuffle includes two roster players.
Tampa Bay receives Adam Henrique (at $1,456,250)
Chicago retains $1,456,250 of Henrique’s deal, receives 2025 5th round pick (TB) and 2024 5th (ANA)
Anaheim retains $2,912,500 of Henrique’s deal, receives Alex Barre-Boulet, Sheary, and a conditional 2025 3rd (becomes 2025 2nd if they advance to the 2024 Eastern Conference Finals OR Henrique re-signs with the team).
Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline: In Or Out On Henrique
It may not be wise to be in Henrique. For a few major reasons, which will be explained in a bit. But before looking at that, the Lightning don’t have a lot of picks, prospects, or really any future assets that they can afford to off-load, especially at that price. Last Word has already looked at other potential acquisitions who come cheaper or offer more upside for less of a hassle, in terms of what to give up. He is expensive, a veteran with only 28 games of playoff experience, and won’t provide that offensive spark they are likely seeking for anyway. Paying that price could be way too much. But, on top of it all, Henrique doesn’t fit very snugly stylistically. Maybe he adjusts, and maybe this is a bit too harsh, but it’s not clear whether he will even work to begin with.
That said, if he is on their radar, he feels like someone who wants to play meaningful games in April and May. Meaning, he would likely re-sign with Tampa Bay in the off-season, and potentially at a discount. But it feels like Tampa has bigger fish to fry in the off-season, with Steven Stamkos’s expiring contract, so even that potential seems iffy. Regardless, there won’t be any surprises with Henrique’s game, and if they want someone who can settle things down and play the “right way” there’s a chance he is on the shortlist. But it feels like too much for a Tampa Bay Lightning trade deadline deal.
Raw stats and per-game stats via Hockey-Reference
Advanced stats via AllThreeZones
Lightning tracked stats via Last Word (Kyle Pereira and Jack Pallotta)
Main Photo: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
