This round of NHL Predictions sees the Carolina Hurricanes taking on the Arizona Coyotes in the Hurricanes last game before the All-Star break. This is the first meeting between the two this season. Carolina comes into this one in a good spot as far as the playoff picture is concerned. They are coming off of two big wins over the powerful Boston Bruins in Boston and Divisional rival New Jersey Devils in Raleigh. The games weren’t perfect but coming away with four points without giving up any over these two teams is big for the team currently missing Andrei Svechnikov and Pyotr Kochetkov. After a somewhat rocky start to the season, the Hurricanes play of late has propelled them up to having a good hold on the second-place spot in the Division and right at the doorstep of the division-leading New York Rangers.
The Coyotes come to Raleigh following a frustrating 6-3 loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning in Florida. While recent history has seen the Coyotes hanging around the basement, this season has seen some improvement and they are pushing hard for a playoff spot out west. Connor Ingram has been solid between the pipes with a 2.59 GAA and .916 SV%. Somewhat unsurprisingly, Clayton Keller leads the team in goals and points with 20 and 45 respectively.
Will the Hurricanes close this out at home and enter the break on a good note? Or will the Coyotes bounce back and snag a win in Raleigh to draw closer to the playoff picture? Here are three keys to a Carolina victory in this one.
NHL Predictions: Carolina Hurricanes vs Arizona Coyotes
Three Keys to Victory for Carolina
Start Strong and Finish Stronger
One thing that has been consistent for Carolina over their last two victories (and their previous loss) is they have started every game on time. They got the first goal in each of those games and had no problems controlling the game early. The second period would then see more of the same until near the end when you could sense the pace slowing and the ice starting to tilt the other way. And then the third starts and for some reason it’s like Carolina is playing on their heels.
Against Boston, you have to give credit to the Bruins as they are such a good team a big push back seemed inevitable. And against New Jersey fatigue was probably a factor playing the second of a back-to-back. But still, the team let Boston tie it up and fortunately found some sneaky luck on a Jordan Martinook shot late for the win. New Jersey got one back and then one with one second left, so it wasn’t a complete breakdown. But was still a big change from how dominant Carolina was playing that game.
A lot of this is simply mental. A game is sixty minutes and to be successful in this league you have to play a full sixty minutes most of the time. Your favourable lopsided first period might cover for a lacklustre third, but it’s not a recipe for success generally. But going into a long break, having a really solid 60-minute game at home could be more beneficial than just the two points earned. It won’t be easy, but the team needs to keep starting on time and finish even stronger.
Get In Front and Inside
One thing that Arizona does is keep shots to the outside in the zone with the exception of at the doorstep. If you look at the chart below from hockeyviz.com, it shows this to be the case.
In relation to the shots that Arizona allows, interestingly, the goals they allow heavily favour that middle alley but above the circles. Some of this could be due to good goaltending and the top of the key shots being results from good screens.
What this means for Carolina is their net front guys like Jordan Staal, Stefan Noesen, Michael Bunting and Jesperi Kotkaniemi need to get in front of the goalie and block his view. What it also means is that guys like Brent Burns, Dmitry Orlov and Brady Skjei need to take shots and most importantly get them through and on net. Shots into guys’ ankles or six feet wide won’t help. Players really good at making a move to create space and get a shot more in that middle lane like Sebastian Aho, Martin Necas and Skjei need to keep doing that. If they can keep up that pressure, they will give themselves a good shot at putting the puck in the net.
And no matter what the statistics show, getting to the net will always be key. You never know where a gritty goal from a loose puck will turn to be a difference maker.
Keep Up the “Finn-ish”
The Hurricanes have found (mostly) some chemistry with various lines as of late. The reunited line of Andrei Svechnikov, Teuvo Teravainen and Sebastian Aho exploded for a stretch of games. Even their regression since then was just back to a good first line versus one playing on the moon. But then Svechnikov got hurt and we have seen other players rotating in with the pair of Finns on the top line. This has included Jordan Martinook some but mostly Michael Bunting. The line of Teravainen, Bunting and Aho may have been Carolina’s best against New Jersey. They were moving the puck well, holding the zone and generating chance after chance. In fact the only complaint may be that they were passing too much at times.
Svechnikov’s status for this matchup with Arizona is up in the air. But whether it is Svechnikov, Bunting, or someone else, Teravainen and Aho clicking is a very beneficial thing for the Hurricanes. For example, against the Devils, when Aho and Teravainen were on the ice together, they had a Corsi for percentage of 78.57, a Fenwick for percentage of 83.33, and an expected goal for percentage of 94.87. On top of that they had two goals for with none against and six shots for with none against. On Carolina’s opening goal from Aho you could see just how in sync these two were.
Sebastian Aho buries the backhanded goal just 90 seconds into the game. ? pic.twitter.com/BFK7VM81oH
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) January 26, 2024
Teravainen and Aho just seem to know where each other are on the ice when things are clicking and this is what you want from a top line and top power play unit pair. The Hurricanes need depth scoring, but if line one is going it causes all sorts of matchup issues for the other side. That can start with this pair of Finns.
Prediction Time
With one to go for Carolina, they will look to finish strong before entering a long break. The Coyotes will look to spoil the last game at PNC Arena until after the All-Star Game and get an important two points in the playoff race. With Carolina hunting down the Rangers and the Coyotes grabbing for that playoff demarcation line, this could turn to be a tough matchup. Historically, Carolina has had a tendency to flounder in games like this, so they need to stay focused on the present without thinking too much about going to Mexico…(looking at you Seth Jarvis).
“IT’S TOO LATE! I’m going to Mexico”
Seth Jarvis appreciates Canes fans trying to vote him into the All-Star Game, but he has other plans ?
(via @KacyHintz) pic.twitter.com/zbMyvWn9wJ
— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) January 12, 2024
But Brind’Amour should have them ready to roll to close it out. They just need to show up and adhere to these keys to pull out the win.
Prediction: Carolina wins 3-2
Main Photo Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
