Today’s NHL Predictions features a cross-conference matchup between the Washington Capitals (22-15-6) and the St. Louis Blues (21-20-2). These two teams just met on Thursday, with the Capitals taking a 5-2 win thanks to T.J. Oshie‘s hat trick. It’s the first time all month the Capitals have won consecutive games. Thursday’s game also saw the highest goal total for Washington since November 30th. With so many positives from the last game, the Capitals would ideally want to do everything the same way tonight. However, that isn’t possible in a sport with as many variables as hockey has. So here are three actionable goals for the Capitals to aim for to get a win.
NHL Predictions: Washington vs St. Louis
Three Keys to Victory for Washington
Better Stick Discipline
The Capitals went on the penalty kill four times, including one double-minor, on only two different infractions Thursday night. Washington was called for two high-sticking incidents sandwiched around two tripping fouls. It was the third game in a row where the Capitals took at least two stick penalties. Tuesday against Anaheim, Anthony Mantha took a slashing penalty near the end of the first period and Ethan Bear tripped Troy Terry late in the game. On Sunday in New York, four of Washington’s six penalties were due to an unruly stick.
The penalty kill had to endure four minutes on its first outing Thursday. In the second period, Tom Wilson, who has taken the third-most penalty-killing shifts among forwards, took the team’s second penalty. Luckily for the Capitals, the Blues didn’t score on any of those opportunities despite having an impressive 5-for-10 power play streak in the preceding three games. The Blues’ power play is less effective than even the Capitals’ across the entire season, but the recent success shows that they may have figured something out. It would be best for Washington to keep their sticks away from any St. Louis faces or feet.
Momentum Through Motion
A key to this set of NHL Predictions will be momentum. The Capitals should try to apply the principle of inertia to their whole-game outlook. This means moving their feet, moving the puck, and keeping everyone involved in the game. It’s the first game of a four-game road trip, so it’s important not to wear out any one line or defensive pair and risk fatigue later in the trip. It’s also important to let the players lower on the depth chart get steady work so they don’t get rusty. The Blues aren’t currently in a playoff spot, and they’re an out-of-conference opponent, so this is a good game to rotate everyone through with low risk.
When looking at the teams’ skating statistics available at NHL EDGE, the Capitals have a significant advantage over St. Louis in speed bursts above 20 miles an hour/32 kilometres an hour. The Blues are below NHL average in that category, while the Capitals are in the 84th percentile with 1,052, more than 100 above league average. These numbers suggest the Capitals should be able to win races for the puck and outskate the Blues with rush chances.
Improve at Even-Strength
This is a long-term goal for Washington that they should be able to make progress on by meeting the two objectives above. If they spend less time on special teams and more time in motion with the puck, their even-strength metrics should naturally start to climb. Using all the available skaters will also help achieve a better five-on-five result; some of the Capitals are significantly stronger in this than others. Coach Spencer Carbery has been mixing the lines all season in search of results while juggling injuries as well. While some combinations have been very successful, other players need a boost that could come from a new linemate.
Washington’s bottom six forwards have generally been its top performers at even strength this season. Of the top-10 scorers, half are members of the third or fourth lines. Connor McMichael, Anthony Mantha, and Aliaksei Protas all have more points than Evgeny Kuznetsov, the primary second-line centre. Protas has 15 assists to rank third for Washington in helpers. Mantha is third on the team in overall goals (12), but only one has been on the power play. He’s tied with overall team points leader Dylan Strome in even-strength goals. The fourth line’s centre, Nic Dowd, has one more goal than Kuznetsov–and when counting only even-strength markers, he’s ahead of Alex Ovechkin as well.
Prediction Time
As always with NHL Predictions, it’s time to make the prediction. These teams have the advantage of recent and highly relevant game tape as they prepare for tonight’s matchup. Both teams will have adapted their game plans based on what they learned on Thursday. St. Louis will have the home-ice option of the last change, so they’ll be able to control the matchup strength. Washington will need to utilize its strong defence, which has allowed two or fewer goals for the past four games, and focus on controlling the flow of the game.
Prediction: Washington wins 3-1.
Main Photo: © Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
