Just what is wrong with the Ottawa Senators in 2023-24 and are there roster moves to make? Not to make excuses, but this is the result of pressure on a young lineup. This lineup was expected to contend for a wild card position in the toughest division in hockey. And, well, quite simply, it has not (contended), and in fact, so badly not, it sits in last in the division. The fact of the matter is that they do not play well enough night-in and night-out to win. Here we will attempt to look at the why.
Just Another Saturday Night for the Ottawa Senators
Look at Saturday night’s matchup against the scorching-hot Edmonton Oilers. There was a time not so long ago, the Sens, yes, even the lowly Sens, were ahead of the Oil. Not so now. The Oilers have been an incredible 17-6 under head coach Kris Knoblauch. But let’s look at and consider how that game played out itself as a microcosm for Ottawa’s season. As Sens fans know, with their skill, they battled tight with the Oilers. It was still scoreless late into the second period. However, this was despite being outshot 6-1 to begin the contest. Then, the Oilers, innocently enough, got a power play marker from Evan Bouchard and they were off and running. Does this type of performance epitomize the Sens season? Possibly, and here’s some of the reasons.
The Ottawa Senators Roster Moves Do Not Need to Come in the Net
The Ottawa Senators goaltenders have not been strong enough. In many ways, it is hard to place it on either goaltender and perhaps better focused on (previous) management. Joonas Korpisalo had never started more than 37 games in an NHL season, as of today he is on pace for 49 starts. Similarly, for Anton Forsberg, his most career starts came in 2021-22, as a member of the Senators with 44. To this point in his nine-year career, he has only started 133. Moreover, in terms of the two tenders not performing, each sport an identical .889 SV%. Now, at .903 in 2023-24 is the lowest it has been in 19 years when it was .901 in 2005-06. Regardless, they fall well below the league-wide mark.
Look at the Evidence of Their Strong Goaltending
Whether it is a system or defensive schema that the Sens do or do not play, the lack of goaltending is a bit of a mystery. In 2021-22, Filip Gustavsson was given an opportunity to prove his worth as an NHL goaltender with Ottawa. With a .892 SV% and a horrendous 3.55 GAA, he did not take advantage. In contrast, what we want to be alerted to, was his next year with the Minnesota Wild. That season he had a remarkable .931 SV% and a 2.10 GAA.
This pattern has been shockingly similar to a player just named to the NHL All-Star game. The Los Angeles Kings backstopper, Cam Talbot, has a .925 SV% and a 2.10 GAA, well deserving of the nod. Last year, his .898 SV% did not cut the proverbial bacon for the Sens, so they let him walk in free agency. In the offseason, for Ottawa Senators roster moves management decided to sign Korpisalo. Clearly, the Sens have had and do have talented goalies, so the answer lies elsewhere.
The Veterans Need to Lead
There are two sources of problems with the Senators: veteran leadership and team defence. In some ways, there is a crossover in the two areas. For instance, Claude Giroux is second on the team in points with 31. Giroux brings a great offensive and playmaking ability, with 21 assists, and his 57 FOW% is great. However, this young core group of forwards does not need a nearly 36-year-old leading the offensive charge. Furthermore, Giroux is not known for his defensive abilities. As a veteran forward, that is an important aspect from a leadership perspective.
Another part of Giroux, which is a bit of an oddity, is how the combination of him along with Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle has fallen off. Last season they played together a ton, and had a fantastic 59.9 xGoals%. Conversely, in 2023-24, when the trio has linked up, they sit at only 48.7%. For what is supposed to be a top line, that is not getting you into the playoffs.
There Are Holes on Defence
When we think about team defence and veteran leadership, another suspect is Travis Hamonic. This will become a source of where the Ottawa Senators need to make some roster moves. The Sens D group does seem to end up with costly injuries, which, in turn, forces Hamonic to play more. For example, Thomas Chabot, the team’s leader in average time on ice, has only played in 13 games. Hamonic doesn’t see the ice a lot, under 15 minutes a night. This season, he is one-tenth off the worst CF% Rel of his career at 39.7, showing a glaring inefficiency. He does block shots well with 65, placing him third on the club. However, that just shows he spends a lot of time in his own end, forcing the defensive efforts. He is sixth on the team among defencemen with 0.7 DPS. For someone supposed to be providing veteran leadership from the backend, he just isn’t performing well enough.
We’ve Established the What, Next on to the Who
Now we have identified key pieces that the Ottawa Senators roster moves need to target. Those spots are a professional defensive presence, on forward and defence really. Moreover, they don’t need goaltending, rather their prospects can be seen as a bright spot. Previously, we had discussed pieces that weren’t movable. Now that we have combined what is needed, next, we will target the ‘who’. Who needs to go and who needs to be brought in?
Main photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
