Today’s NHL Predictions feature a highly anticipated Atlantic Division rivalry. On Thursday night, the Tampa Bay Lightning (19-16-5) beat the Minnesota Wild by a score of 4-1. Darren Raddysh had a breakout game with back-to-back goals in the second period. Furthermore, Declan Carlile played in his first NHL game on the bottom defence pairing. Carlile did not disappoint as he controlled 74.51% of the expected goals share on-ice (74.51 xGF%). This percentage ranked third on the Lightning Thursday night.
On the other side of this matchup, the Boston Bruins (23-8-6) remain one of the most dominant teams in the NHL. Led by the Czech superstar David Pastrnak, the Bruins did not skip a beat after the retirements of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci. Centres Pavel Zacha and Charlie Coyle have stepped up their game to fill the vacant roster holes for Boston. The two-headed monster in goal for the Bruins has also remained consistent throughout the first half of the 2024 season.
In their last meeting, the Lightning took down the Bruins at home in an overtime thriller. Tampa Bay has made massive strides in their overall plays compared to game one of the season. Over the past few weeks, the team is consistent and established an identity. Here are the keys to victory for the Lightning in this matchup.
NHL Predictions: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Boston Bruins
Three Keys to Victory for Tampa Bay
Disrupt the Bruins’ Sloppy Breakout
A hidden weakness of the Bruins lies within their breakout. Thanks to Corey Sznjader at All Three Zones, we have additional insight into team statistics, such as breakouts, zone entries, and passes. Under the defensive zone retrievals and exits tab, the Bruins fall under the “sloppy breakout” category of the graphic. The Bruins go back and retrieve pucks in the defensive zone often. Yet, many of their retrievals are picked off and intercepted.
A microstat strong suit of the Lightning has been their ability to produce shots off the forecheck and cycle. The Lightning ranks fifth in forecheck pressures per hour and ninth in forecheck recoveries per hour. In the last meeting against the Bruins, the Lightning scored their goals from sustained offensive pressure and a heavy forecheck. The Bolts must replicate their superb forecheck to find success against the Bruins once more.
Bottom-Six Contributions
One player we are ecstatic to see back in the lineup is Conor Sheary. The Lightning brought Sheary in on a cost-efficient deal over the summer via free agency. He only has eight points in 22 games so far this season, but his impact on the middle-six is very noticeable when he is in the lineup. Tyler Motte and Luke Glendening also added assists on goals against the Wild Thursday night.
Julien BriseBois will likely look to add to the forward core at the trade deadline, depending on their position after the next 15 games. The Lightning needs scoring depth that can play on both sides of the puck. Once they receive consistent contributions outside the top six, the Lightning may be a deadly team come playoff time.
Strong Goaltending From The Big Cat
After a solid start to the season, Jonas Johansson proved to everyone why he is not a full-time starting goaltender in the NHL. However, Johnasson played to the best of his abilities to keep the Lightning’s playoff hopes alive before the return of Andrei Vasilevskiy. After all, Johansson ranked eighth-worst in goals saved above expected amongst all goaltenders this season (-7.0 GSAx).
Vasilevksiy’s 4.8 goals saved above expected rank 21st in the league since his return (4.8 GSAx). He must continue his strong play for the Lightning to have another chance with this core. The team has aged and is not the same compared to years past, but they are more than capable of finding success.
Prediction Time
The Lightning and Bruins will face off for the second time this season. The Lightning remain shorthanded on the backend with injuries to Mikhail Sergachev and Erik Cernak. Luckily, the entire forward core is intact. The forecheck will give the Lightning the best shot to defeat the Bruins. Every game for the Lightning going forward is critical towards the standings. Unfortunately, we believe the Bruins will grab the two points this time.
Prediction: Boston wins 3-2
Line Statistics via MoneyPuck
On-Ice Statistics via NaturalStatTrick
Main Photo: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports
