This round of NHL Predictions sees two Metropolitan Division foes matchup in the United States Capital as the Washington Capitals welcome the Carolina Hurricanes. This is the second meeting this season of the old Southeast Division rivals. Carolina has finally found some rhythm to their game as they enter this contest on a four-game win streak. Pyotr Kochetkov has been lights out over this stretch and is a big reason Carolina has played closer to expectations.
Meanwhile, Washington enters this one after a 6-3 loss against the New Jersey Devils on Wednesday. While they have somewhat fallen over their last stretch of play, they are still exceeding most people’s expectations this season. The big news from Wednesday was the return of (briefly) former Hurricane Max Pacioretty to Washington’s lineup. While he didn’t have any points against the Devils, he is a known goal scorer with a lethal shot. The question is just how his past injuries may affect his play.
The last matchup between these two featured a fairly boring game that included an overtime marked by the Capitals seeming to hold the puck waiting for the shootout where they are strong. And it worked as they won in the shootout. But it’s a new day. Here’s three keys to victory for Carolina.
NHL Predictions: Carolina Hurricanes vs Washington Capitals
Three Keys to Victory for Carolina
Stars Keep Carrying the Team
With Carolina’s success over the last few years and this being characterized by a strong team system and team play, there are not many players on the team that get top individual accolades. And that is ok but it does not mean this team doesn’t have players that are or could become star NHL players. Arguably the top two that fit this bill are Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov. And lately they have been leading the charge for Carolina.
Over the last seven games Svechnikov has seven goals. He also has 19 points in his last 15 games. After coming back from injury he started slow, even suffering another injury causing him to miss time. But after that he has seemed to find his game and it is showing. He is producing on the power play and starting to show off his skill. It’s no secret that Svechnikov producing is huge for Carolina.
Meanwhile, Aho continues to rise up the franchise list in almost every stat showing his star power. This included back-to-back four-point games followed by a three-point game. Against the New York Rangers he “only” had one assist. Over his last 11 games Aho has 21 points. He has 13 points in his last five games. And here is an interesting one. Aho has more multi-point games this season than ones he has been held without a point. Like Svechnikov, Aho producing makes a difference for Carolina.
But then you throw them together while both are hot and you see the result over Carolina’s latest hot stretch. Together they have 24 points over the last five games. While Carolina’s system sees more than just their top line producing, and they can still win some without top performances from these two, this duo maintaining their strong play could be key to picking up a victory in D.C.
Defence Stays Sharp
Carolina’s defence has always been touted as one of the best in the league over the last few seasons. But they started off this year struggling. Newcomer Dmitry Orlov seemed lost in the system while Brent Burns and Brett Pesce looked somewhat out of sync. However, over their latest stretch of play, the defence has really picked it up.
Since the holiday break, Burns has one goal and five assists with only one 5v5 goal against. He also has found his way into the top of Evolving-Hockey’s Goals Above Replacement list. Meanwhile, Brady Skjei has continued his strong play from last year and has six goals and 18 assists this season, leading all Hurricanes defencemen in points.
But one thing that has really helped Carolina’s defence is the strong play of the Dmitry Orlov/Jalen Chatfield pairing. It took some time, but they have found some chemistry, especially defensively. They have a solid 2.06 expected goals against per sixty minutes with only 2.2 goals against as a pair. Tony DeAngelo has sat out a lot of late but the reason is two-fold. He was used to help on the power play but his 5v5 play was less than stellar. However, with Skjei’s impact on the power play lately and the Orlov/Chatfield pairing at 5v5, DeAngelo remains off the ice.
Since the holiday break, the team as whole has only allowed eight goals compared to 19 goals for. This comes from the team finding its defensive strength. Oh, and we can’t ignore the lights-out play of goalie Pyotr Kochetkov lately as well. He currently has a 2.53 GAA and .904 SV% after struggling early in the season. The strong defensive play will be huge for Carolina staying in the win column against Washington.
Oh Again….Special Teams
We have discussed the Hurricanes special teams being a key to victory multiple times now. And it remains the same today. This has not only been a strength of this team lately, and frankly all year now, but it has been a true difference maker.
The team’s 5v5 game tends to favour quantity of shots over quality so a working power play allows the skilled players to sort of flip that script. And it is working. Sitting at 27.3%, the power play is hovering around the top five in the league. The team is moving the puck and finding goal scoring on the man advantage from all over the ice. Against the Rangers it was two power play goals that started the game on the positive for Carolina.
Then on the penalty kill, the team has also been strong. At 83.1% they sit in the top ten in that category. Since December 1, Carolina has only allowed three goals on the penalty kill and leads the league in that category during that time. Even though Washington hasn’t been the strongest on the man advantage, they still have offensive weapons.
Carolina staying strong on its special teams will be big for this one.
Prediction Time
With Carolina starting to catch fire they should have a lot of confidence going into this one. But that doesn’t mean they can expect an easy victory. Every day is a new day, and anyone can beat anyone on a given night in the NHL. Charlie Lindgren is out for Washington with an injury so we most likely see Darcy Kuemper in goal again. This is the first of a back-to-back for Carolina but still expect to see Kochetkov in net. Carolina will also be looking for revenge from the loss against Washington earlier this season. But Washington will look to keep climbing the playoff ladder.
Prediction: Carolina wins 4-2
Main Photo Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports
