Today’s NHL Predictions features another cross-conference matchup between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Minnesota Wild. On Tuesday night, the Tampa Bay Lightning (18-16-5) lost to the Winnipeg Jets by a score of 4-2. The Lightning finally scored the first goal when Steven Stamkos ended a long goal-scoring drought on the power play. However, a costly turnover by Andrei Vasilevskiy gave the Jets a cushioned lead late in the third period.
On the other side of this matchup, the Minnesota Wild (16-16-4) have had a rollercoaster season thus far. Former Head Coach Dean Evason was relieved of his duties in place of John Hynes. With Hynes as the new bench boss, the Wild have won 11 of their last 17 games. Unfortunately, Minnesota has a plethora of injuries. Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello, Filip Gustavsson, and Jonas Brodin are all out of the lineup.
The Lightning will face a depleted Wild team that has lost three straight games. This scenario does not mean the Lightning should take the Wild lightly. The Bolts must play their game as if the opponent is healthy. Here are the keys to victory for the Lightning in this matchup.
NHL Predictions: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Minnesota Wild
Three Keys to Victory for Tampa Bay
Capitalize on the Power Play
Tampa Bay can run away with this game through the special teams department. Minnesota has accumulated the fifth most penalty minutes in the entire league this season. In addition, the Wild penalty kill operates at a 72.8% success rate, which ranks 30th in the NHL. This Wild team racks up many penalty minutes they can not kill off.
On the other hand, the Lightning power play operates at a 29.8% success rate, which ranks third in the NHL. The Lightning will draw a few penalties against an injured Wild team. From there, the Lightning move the puck around the zone second to none in the league. The Bolts can pot two or three power-play goals tonight.
Neutralize the Wild Forecheck
Corey Sznajder has tracked microstats league-wide since 2016 under All Three Zones. Through Sznajder’s findings, the Wild are a bottom-three team at generating scoring chances off the rush. However, the team is very effective on the forecheck. The Wild prefer to dump the puck, as they are not the most skilled team.
The Lightning must be efficient and clean with their defensive zone retrievals and exits to neutralize the Wild forecheck. The Lightning rank below the league average in retrievals per hour and tend to have their breakout passes picked off often. Therefore, the Lightning must settle down on their breakouts and exit cleanly with possession.
Find Sustainable Forward Line Combinations
The Lightning have been sporadic with their line combinations throughout the season. Jon Cooper has struggled to find combinations that click for his team. In their previous game, the Lightning placed Anthony Cirelli on the top line with Nikita Kucherov, an idea we recommended weeks back.
While Kucherov and Cirelli were slightly out-chanced, Brayden Point dominated the game with his new linemates. A trio of Point, Brandon Hagel, and Nick Paul controlled 79% of the expected goal share on-ice and outshot the Jets seven to two. This trio may have to get another game or two together to see if the combination is sustainable long-term.
Prediction Time
The Lightning and Wild will face off for the first time this season. The Lightning are still down with a few injuries on the backend. The team ran with five defencemen against the Jets on Tuesday night. A return timeline for Mikhail Sergachev and Erik Cernak is uncertain. However, we believe the special teams of the Tampa Bay Lightning will power them to a dominant victory over an injured Wild roster in this round of NHL Predictions.
Prediction: Tampa Bay wins 5-2
Line Statistics via MoneyPuck
Main Photo Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
