Today’s NHL Predictions features a cross-conference matchup. On Sunday night, the Tampa Bay Lightning (18-15-5) beat the Montreal Canadiens by a score of 4-3. After trailing by two goals in the second period, the Lightning rallied for four straight goals for the victory. Tampa Bay tends to fall behind early and play catch-up later in the game this season.
On the other side of this matchup, the Winnipeg Jets (22-9-4) have emerged out of nowhere as a top team in the NHL this season. The Jets have shifted into a very structured defensive team, an identity the organization did not establish in years past. The Jets have remained red-hot despite the absence of Kyle Connor, who leads the team with 17 goals. Furthermore, trade acquisition Gabriel Vilardi has been excellent for the Jets, with 15 points in 17 games.
The Lightning will face a sound and structured opponent with fabulous goaltending on Tuesday night to kick off the 2024 calendar year. The Jets have earned points in nine of their last ten games and rank sixth in the standings. Winnipeg is the least-mentioned team in the top ten by far. The Bolts are in for a great test as they try to battle themselves out of the playoff bubble. Here are the keys to victory for the Lightning in this matchup.
NHL Predictions: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Winnipeg Jets
Three Keys to Victory for Tampa Bay
Score the First Goal Early
The Lightning have found themselves in a two-goal deficit to start the game in four of their last five contests. The team appears to have dead legs in the first period. When the Lightning start slow, they force themselves to play catch-up later in the game. While the Bolts have the talent to pull off come-from-behind wins, this style of hockey is not sustainable long-term heading into the playoffs.
Instead of sitting back and countering the Jets, the Lightning must control the pace of play from the drop of the puck. The best way to set a pace of play is to establish the forecheck the Lightning have relied on often this year. Outside of Nikita Kucherov‘s line, which primarily generates scoring chances off the rush, the other three forward lines dump the puck and forecheck. If the Lightning get one past the Jets early, their confidence will rise with their emotions intact.
Defend the Rush and Breakout Cleanly
The Jets have emerged as one of the best teams on the rush this season. Mark Scheifele and Nikolaj Ehlers lead the attack for Winnipeg. Corey Sznajder has tracked microstats league-wide since 2016 under All Three Zones. Under Sznajder’s entries leading to scoring chances tab, he tracks controlled zone entries per hour at 5v5. The Jets have two players in the top ten of this statistic. Ehlers ranks third in controlled zone entries per 60, and Scheifele ranks eighth in the stat.
The Lightning must rely on their aggressive rush defence to force Winnipeg to dump the puck and forecheck. While the Jets are not a bad team on the forecheck, they are below league average in shots from the cycle and forecheck from Sznajder’s tracking. Tampa Bay does a great job at limiting zone entries. However, if they face a solid forecheck, they get trapped in the defensive zone and struggle to clear the puck. The Bolts cannot turn the puck over and must avoid spending excessive time in the defensive zone.
Confidence in the Captain
While the Lightning have not struggled to score goals this season, one player in particular has been ice-cold as of late. Tampa Bay captain Steven Stamkos recorded a goal in only two out of 13 games throughout December. Despite Stamkos scoring four goals in one game, the rest of the month was quiet for the sniper.
The Lightning must find a way to get Stamkos on the board and boost his confidence. Stamkos has not had his best season on the defensive side of the puck and is being heavily out-chanced at even strength. The Lightning need more from their captain to secure a playoff spot.
Prediction Time
In their last meeting, the Jets defeated the Lightning in overtime in a hard-fought contest. If the Lightning can follow the three points stated above, they will have a solid chance to beat the Jets. The structure of the Jets will be challenging to break, but the Lightning have proved to play well against difficult opponents. However, we believe the defence of the Jets will help them capture a win on home ice against the Lightning.
Prediction: Winnipeg wins 4-3
Main Photo Credit: Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports
