Today’s NHL Predictions feature a rivalry between two franchises from the Sunshine State. On Saturday night, the Tampa Bay Lightning (17-13-5) defeated the Washington Capitals by a score of 2-1 in a shootout. After an early tally from Luke Glendening in the first period, the Lightning offence remained quiet by recording 20 shots on goal. In the shootout, Victor Hedman scored to earn the extra point for the Bolts.
On the other side of this matchup, the Florida Panthers (19-12-2) have remained competitive after losing in the Stanley Cup Finals last season. Despite winning only five of their previous ten games, the Panthers remain an excellent opponent. Sam Reinhart leads the charge with 19 goals and 40 points in 33 games for the Cats. Furthermore, Aleksander Barkov has played at a Selke-caliber level on the defensive side of the puck.
Tampa Bay extended their win streak to three games on Saturday night. Tampa Bay has not won more than three consecutive games yet this season. However, the Bolts can change that tonight. The Lightning have won seven of their last ten contests and continue to improve as the season progresses. Here are the keys to victory for the Lightning in this matchup.
NHL Predictions: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers
Three Keys to Victory for Tampa Bay
Convert on the Power Play
Under Head Coach Paul Maurice, the Panthers have been a force at even strength on both ends of the ice. Florida produces many scoring chances in the offensive zone, and their chance suppression has been top-notch in the defensive zone. Special teams become vital when facing an opponent that remains structured at even strength.
According to Stat Pros, the Panthers rank 6th in penalty minutes per game this season (11.6 PIM/G). The Cats find themselves in the sin bin repeatedly, and their poor discipline shows in their record. The team would jump higher in the standings with better discipline. Luckily for Florida, their penalty kill ranks 8th in the entire NHL, operating at an 82.9% success rate.
As for the Lightning, their power play ranks 2nd in the NHL, operating at a 30% success rate. If the Bolts can draw enough penalties to swing the momentum, they will find great success against a structured Panthers squad.
Clean Retreivals and Breakouts
To defend against the offensive attack, we must break down the Panthers’ play style. According to All Three Zones, the Panthers play a balanced style between the rush and forecheck. However, they prefer a dump-and-chase play over a rush chance. Furthermore, the Panthers create high-danger opportunities all over the ice. The Panthers are not an opportunistic team. In other words, they produce many scoring chances from controlled breakouts and regroups.
As for the Lightning, the team allows the least amount of zone entries per hour in the league and takes an aggressive approach to rush defence (All Three Zones). While the Lightning control their zone exits, they tend to get stuck in the defensive zone due to poor puck retrieval abilities. The Panthers will pounce on the Lightning defence with their heavy forecheck. The Tampa Bay defence must be clean with their retrievals and breakouts to win against Florida.
Role Players Step Up
When facing an opponent who can run all four lines and find success, teams must be able to count on all four of their lines to find success. In addition, all three defensive pairings must be stable. The Panthers have an overload of weapons throughout their lineup, while the Lightning receive inconsistent contributions for their depth.
The Lightning look like a serious contender when the role players step up. The issue with the role players is they struggle to replicate the same intensity every game. However, Glendening and Conor Sheary were an excellent duo for the Lightning against Washington. If the entire bottom six can replicate play like that, they will be victorious against Florida.
Prediction Time
This Sunshine State rivalry offers the Lightning a chance to set their longest win streak this season. The Lightning proved to play well against top opponents at home. On top of the fact that the Panthers struggle to finish their scoring chances and are cold as of late, we predict the Lightning pull off an upset at Amalie Arena.
Prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning win 4-3
Main Photo: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
