After a brief holiday break, NHL Predictions returns with this round looking at the Carolina Hurricanes travelling to Nashville to take on the Predators. Carolina ended on a sour note before the break as they lost 5-4 to the New York Islanders. While the power play was decent and they kept fighting back, it wasn’t enough to match the Islanders. A few of the goals seemed like results of letting in easy ones and the game was another one that “could have been won.” With the team having such an inconsistent season and supposedly struggling with numerous undisclosed injuries, the break may have been a good reset. But they will then hit the ground running in Nashville with a follow-up at home the next day against the Montreal Canadiens. Due to the back-to-back, Carolina recalled Antti Raanta so we will see who takes the net.
Nashville welcomes Carolina following a dramatic loss to the Dallas Stars resulting from a breakdown in the last few seconds. Overall, however, Nashville is 7-3-0 in their last ten. This includes their 6-5 overtime win over the Hurricanes in Raleigh a few games ago. While many people thought Nashville could be on the outside looking in this year, they are in the first wild card playoff spot in the West.
Ironically, both of these teams have 38 points in 34 games played. With the way the last one ended and the equality of points, don’t be surprised if this one ends very close. Both will be looking to get back into the win column. Here are three keys for a Hurricanes victory.
NHL Predictions: Carolina Hurricanes vs Nashville Predators
Three Keys to Victory for Carolina
Play Defence and Offence at the Same Time
This key to victory may seem like a weird one. Obviously you need defence and offence to win games. But Carolina has lost numerous games where it seems like they only do one or the other. Pyotr Kochetkov had a really solid stretch of play through Carolina’s recent six game point streak that ended against the Islanders. But a lot of that point stretch included overtime and shootout losses. In games that should have ended in victories, it seemed like Carolina would get solid defence and goaltending OR explosive offence, but not both at the same time. The exception to this really only came in the Hurricane victory over the Vegas Golden Knights.
Their last loss to the Islanders was no exception. In a 5-4 loss, the team seemed to have less trouble putting the puck in the net. But more keeping it out. Four goals should be enough to win. But it wasn’t. Every time they would start to comeback, another Islanders goal would go on the board. Against the Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals, the team generated tons of chances and held both teams to only one goal in regulation and overtime. However, the offence couldn’t muster up more than one goal in each. Even the goal against the Penguins was an own goal off Kris Letang‘s skate.
It begs the question, is this a result of playing styles or is it just dumb luck? Are they sacrificing defence for offence and vice versa? If that’s the case, that is not a recipe for success for the season. And certainly not for the playoffs. They need to really figure this one out.
2018 Draft Class Stepping Up
Carolina is still looking for some consistency from (frankly) everyone. Different players have had flashes, but most have been streaky at best. Sebastian Aho leads the team in points and goals but even he has had times of getting cold. There are two players however that we will focus on that could be essential for Carolina in this matchup. And both are top five draft picks from the 2018 NHL Draft.
Andrei Svechnikov
The first is Andrei Svechnikov. Hurricanes fans know what Svechnikov is capable of and how he plays. The second overall pick in the 2018 NHL Draft is a prototypical power forward with great hands and a heavy shot. Not to mention his skill with plays such as the first ever lacrosse goal in the NHL. However, Svechnikov has become a great playmaker in the last few years.
Unfortunately, he has suffered from injury trouble this season and last. But in only 19 games this year he has two goals and 14 assists and is second on the team with 0.74 points per game. He also has one power play goal and six power play points. Carolina is looking for scoring help and Svechnikov can provide that if on his game. Whether it’s due to injuries or something else, Svechnikov has not really “taken over” a game this season. And while he may not be at the level of say Connor McDavid or Auston Matthews to do so, when he turns it on it is something to see. He has been slotted on Carolina’s de facto fourth line but I’d argue Carolina’s lines are not really stuck in the traditional line nominations considering Svechnikov and Teuvo Teravainen have both been on that “fourth line.”
Jesperi Kotkaniemi
The second is Jesperi Kotkaniemi. The third overall pick in the 2018 NHL Draft came to Carolina in dramatic fashion through an offer sheet. Kotkaniemi started the season off hot and was really carrying the team offensively. But he has drastically cooled off in the back half of this season so far. It is interesting to try to figure out how management really views Kotkaniemi. They seem to want him to be the team’s permanent second line centre behind Aho. At times, he really looks like it. But at other times he struggles and the on-ice utilization is more akin to him being a defensive centre in line to take over Jordan Staal‘s role.
He managed to get a goal against Vegas but Carolina will need him to get back on the scoresheet consistently this season. So far he has nine goals and seven assists, but most of that came at the beginning of the year. In addition, he is 47% in faceoffs. He is still a young player at age 23 and there’s time to develop. But Carolina really isn’t in a wait and see window. For this matchup with Nashville, having Kotkaniemi as a scoring threat every time he’s on the ice can make a huge difference. It will ease up the pressure against the top line and give the “fourth line” with Svechnikov more room as well.
Keep in mind that Rod Brind’Amour is not afraid to blend the lines at any time but regardless, both of these players are very important to Carolina’s success.
Keep Up the Special Teams Effectiveness
This has been a recurring key for Carolina over and over this season, but it remains true. Carolina’s 5v5 play is based so much on playing the odds of shot generation versus shot suppression that the power play is the time Carolina needs to have higher quality chances. We previously took an in depth look at how important the power play is to Carolina here. And they have done better this year. At 24.3%, they are eighth in the NHL on the power play this season. When they can establish the zone and move the puck quickly, they are finding success. This also combines with guys like Stefan Noesen getting to the front of the net. Nashville has a 25th ranked penalty kill at 77.3% so Carolina needs to pounce on this.
Carolina’s penalty kill has been solid too at 82.7%. This ninth ranked penalty kill has kept other teams’ power plays off the score sheet and has been a big piece of Carolina’s game. This is especially important considering the high rate of penalties Carolina has been taking lately. Nashville has a decent power play at 20.5% so Carolina cannot sleep on them.
Prediction Time
Carolina has been a hard team to predict this season. One game they easily handle the then league leading Vegas Golden Knights and the next they can’t score against a middling Penguins squad. They have not strung together more than two wins in a row almost at any point all season. These two teams are also almost square this season with the same points and points percentage. If Carolina can get to their game, they could find a win, but it has been hard for them to find any consistency this year. With that said, expect this to be another tight scoring affair.
Prediction: Carolina wins 3-2
Main Photo Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports
