Today’s NHL Predictions features an Eastern Conference matchup. On Thursday night, the Tampa Bay Lightning (16-13-5) defeated the Vegas Golden Knights by a score of 5-4. The Lightning surged late in the second period for four goals. Then, Nick Paul scored the game-winning goal with a minute left in the third period. Paul has six points in his last two contests since being moved to the top line with Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point.
On the other side of this matchup, the Washington Capitals (17-9-4) have shocked many fans with their solid start to the season. Dylan Strome leads the way for Washington with 13 goals and 20 points on the season. However, franchise icon Alex Ovechkin snapped a 14-game goal drought with an overtime winner in Columbus on Thursday. The goal-scoring drought was rare for the second-leading goal scorer all-time.
Tampa Bay now has back-to-back wins for the first time this month. The team has played much better hockey as of late. Andrei Vasilevskiy looks like his usual self in the net, and Kucherov continues to be a ground-breaking talent for this Tampa Bay squad. Here are the keys to victory for the Lightning in this matchup.
NHL Predictions: Tampa Bay vs Washington
Three Keys to Victory for Tampa Bay
Full Attack Play-Style and Mindset
The Capitals are one of the most laid-back teams in the NHL. Like the New York Islanders a few seasons ago, Washington plays a passive game and does not take risks offensively. The team prefers to sit back and be patient for the proper opportunity to strike on offence. The best way to counter this play style is to set a fast, aggressive pace to the game. The Lightning has been solid on the forecheck this year. The Bolts must chip pucks behind the Washington defenders and create chaos.
However, there is a mental aspect to defeating opponents who play a slugfest style of hockey. The players must remain calm on the bench throughout the game. The Capitals frustrate their opponents easily in a game with limited offence and passive defence. If the Lightning can keep their emotions in check for 60 minutes, they will be able to exploit the flaws of the Capitals.
Shots from the Point (Again)
In the previous game, Tampa Bay found much success firing pucks on the net from the point. The Capitals defend similarly to the Vegas Golden Knights. They protect the house and give opponents the perimeter to work with. As a result, the Lightning cashed in on three goals in front of the net off scrambles and rebounds. The Lightning is a much better hockey team with a shooter mentality.
From the Capitals’ 5v5 defensive Shot Map from HockeyViz, we can conclude that the team struggles to defend the point. The blue regions identify a team that generates less than the league average rate of shots, and the red regions for more than the league average.
*Insert Map Here*
The Lightning appear to build confidence when they lead in the shot department during the game. The team must continue to put the puck on the net and maintain pressure by retrieving the rebounds.
Nick Paul Continues to Dominate
Nick Paul has been a pleasant surprise this week for Tampa Bay. Since joining the first line, Paul has recorded back-to-back three-point nights. Paul tallied the game-winning goal against Vegas on Thursday night with a minute left in regulation. Furthermore, he has been disruptive in front of the net once again.
At the beginning of the season, we predicted Paul to score 50 points in a bold predictions article. Paul has 11 goals and eight assists for 19 points in 34 games. This total puts him on pace for 46 points in 82 games. If Paul can maintain half of what he has done with the top line in the past two games, he will hit 50 points for the first time in his career. Furthermore, with Paul on the first line, the Lightning can distribute the talent to build an elite second line with Steven Stamkos and Brandon Hagel.
Prediction Time
This Eastern Conference matchup features two of the best Russian-born players of all time on both sides. Tampa Bay heads to Capital One Arena for a one-stop road trip. The Lightning have been excellent in their past two games. The team has an opportunity to string together three straight wins for the second time this year. We project the Lighting to grab two points heading into the Holiday break.
Prediction: Tampa Bay wins 4-2
Main Photo: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports
