This round of NHL Predictions looks at the Carolina Hurricanes returning home to take on another Metropolitan Division foe in the New York Islanders. Carolina continues their up and down play after a 2-1 shootout loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins on Thursday. The team has managed points in six straight games however. Even though the team has not strung together a series of wins more than two games essentially all season, they sit right in the mix of a playoff spot.
Meanwhile, the New York Islanders continue their strong play of late and bring a record of 6-1-3 in their last ten to Raleigh. They sit with 39 points in 32 games and in the top three in the Metropolitan Division. Mathew Barzal leads the team in points with 33 while Brock Nelson leads in goals with 15.
The previous two matchups between these teams were tightly contested overtime games with a win coming each way. Carolina will look to use the home-ice advantage to get back in the win column while the Islanders look to spoil the Hurricanes Christmas. Here are three keys for a Carolina victory.
NHL Predictions: Carolina Hurricanes vs New York Islanders
Three Keys to Victory for Carolina
The Russian Netminder Battle
Any team that faces the Islanders knows they potentially have to get through one of the best goalies in the league right now in Ilya Sorokin. While he is not number one in SV% or GAA this year, he still has a very solid 3.04 GAA and .914 SV%. He also has a 8.1 goals saved above expected. Regardless of the numbers, you know whenever you face Sorokin that scoring can be a challenge.
On the other side, Carolina has been leaning on Pyotr Kochetkov as of late with Antti Raanta sent down to the AHL and Frederik Andersen still out. While Kochetkov started the season off with abysmal numbers, he has clawed his way back up towards respectable statistics with his play of late. His SV% is almost at the .900 mark with .899% while his GAA is 2.53. Of particular note, in his last five starts he is 3-0-2 with a .949 SV%. He is giving the team a chance to win every time he is on the ice lately.
As discussed in previous NHL Predictions featuring Carolina, Kochetkov maintaining this stellar play will be absolutely essential to winning this one. While the Islanders overall are not the highest scoring team, they still have the skill and ability to put the puck in the net. But Carolina has to give Kochetkov some help offensively too. They will need to score more than one goal to get the win.
Use Special Teams to Tilt the Ice
Special teams has been a big key for Carolina in many rounds of NHL Predictions this year. The special teams battle in this one should be particularly important for Carolina. The Hurricanes have the tenth ranked power play at 23.4% while the Islanders are in sixth with 25.6%. The Hurricanes penalty kill is also tenth at 82.2% while the Islanders penalty kill sits at the bottom of the league at 71.9%. Both sides of the special teams will be essential here.
Power Play as an Offensive Spark
We previously took a look at why the Hurricanes having a clicking power play is so essential to their success. For a team that relies on heavy forechecking and shot generation at 5v5, the power play allows the team to be more opportunistic. And the NHL is such a good and tight league that seizing opportunities is what is the difference between a win and a loss.
The last two “big” victories for Carolina came in a 4-1 win versus the Ottawa Senators and a 6-3 win versus the Vegas Golden Knights. The offence exploded in both. What was a common theme to both? The power play was 100%. Every goal was not a power play goal, but 50% were. Against Pittsburgh, Carolina only had two power play chances but failed to convert. They also failed to convert against the Washington Capitals in their last matchup. Both ended in shootout losses. While I won’t go so far to say if they don’t score a power play goal they won’t win, it sure is looking like an essential component to their game. With the Islanders penalty kill struggling, Carolina needs to take advantage.
Penalty Kill Keeps Rolling
Carolina has also been strong on the penalty kill and is what kept the Pittsburgh game from ending in a regulation loss as the Penguins got a ton of power play opportunities. The Islanders have a strong power play so Carolina must continue their strong kill to keep things at bay.
Second Line Getting Rewarded
In Carolina’s last outing versus the Penguins, the second line of Michael Bunting, Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Martin Necas did everything but score. Necas and Bunting led the team in shots with three each. That line’s relative Corsi percentage led the team at 19.59% while they were second in expected goals with 0.46. They played just under ten minutes, with lines one and four holding about the same. The third line of Jordan Staal, Jesper Fast and Jordan Martinook led with 12:28. This is interesting because even though the third line was relied upon a lot for defence against Sidney Crosby, the team needed scoring and that line is the least offensively gifted.
For the year, the second line has four goals for and four against with 4.5 expected goals and a team leading 4.3 expected goals per 60 minutes. As constructed, this should be a well-balanced line as Bunting provides good net front presence, a shoot first mentality and serves as an agitator. Kotkaniemi, while going through somewhat of a slump lately, is a big body that has a solid two-way game and can drive the play in the offensive zone in a sort of Jordan Staal like way. Then Necas plays a very fast and highly skilled game.
Brind’Amour should give this line some more time together to gel so they can establish a solid producing second line. Having scoring throughout the lineup will be key but a great second line can allow the other lines to work as well. This line needs to keep up its chance generating play but needs to get to the net and find a few notches on the scoresheet to help the team win.
Prediction Time
This round of NHL Predictions will involve another tough matchup for both teams as they are competing head-to-head for playoff positioning within the Division. Carolina will have to watch the Islanders skilled players like Mathew Barzal but need to push the pace and attack offensively as well. Playing at home should give Carolina a boost as they tend to have better results there. Expect this one to end with only a small margin of difference.
Prediction: Carolina wins 3-2 in overtime
Main Photo Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports
