How does Ottawa Senators first-line centre Tim Stutzle stack up defensively? In our previous article, we mentioned exploring how the team’s centres impact their defensive structure and system. Before we delve into the team’s defensive abilities upfront, let’s focus on that of Tim Stutzle.
What Are Areas of Strength and Improvement for Tim Stutzle Defensively?
The young German forward does have a bit of an identity crisis. Is he a centre or a left winger? If you review the lines according to Moneypuck, there is a very clear distinction made. Depending on who Stutzle is on a line with, he is either a centre or a left winger. So, let’s investigate, first just where Stutzle feels most comfortable in the alignment of the Senators roster, and then how he performs defensively. In other words, how is his two-hundred-foot game as an NHL centre?
How Do the Lines Work in Ottawa?
| Team Rank | Left Wing | Centre | Right Wing | Minutes | xGoals% |
| 1 | Tkachuk | Giroux | Norris | 67.7 | 63.8% |
| 2 | Stutzle | Giroux | Joseph | 70.4 | 60.9% |
| 3 | Tarasenko | Stutzle | Batherson | 60.4 | 57.6% |
| 5 | Tkachuk | Stutzle | Giroux | 112.5 | 49.6% |
When playing with veteran Claude Giroux, there is a clear dichotomy. If they are teamed up with Mathieu Joseph, Stutzle is on the wing. In contrast, when they are with Brady Tkachuk, Stutzle is the centre. Let’s consider the oZS% to help explain what is happening. This year for Stutzle he is at 65.3%, which is 68.4% over his career. Joseph checks in at 45.8%, while Tkachuk is at 63.0%. Therefore, it is clear, that when Joseph is on his wing with Giroux, they tend to be in more of a defensive role. This shifts Stutzle to the wing. Additionally, the Stutzle, Giroux, and Joseph line is a highly effective shutdown line, hence, the defensive starts. If you look league-wide, filtering on lines a minimum of 48 minutes played together, the line is sixth in xGoals Against Per 60 minutes at 1.53.
Of course, the opposite is true when Tim Stutzle is playing on a line with Tkachuk. This is in a more offensive scheme, Stutzle is at the centre slot. This allows Stutzle to use his speed, to be able to attack, yet get back quickly on defence, if necessary. Stutzle’s other, more newly created line is with Vladimir Tarasenko and Drake Batherson. This line tends to be more offensive, as both players have an oZS% over 60%. Furthermore, since this line has been put together, they have done well, with an xGoals% of 57.6. Not quite as effective as the combo with Giroux and Joseph, but strong nonetheless. This combo also allows for more successful combos elsewhere. One example of success splitting up Claude Giroux and Tim Stutzle is the top line in terms of xGoals%. This team-leading line is made up of Tkachuk, Giroux, and Joshua Norris with an xGoals% of 63.8.
What’s Good for the Goose Is Good for the Gander?
Once again, similar to our previous article on defensive systems, the team seems to be figuring it out. The Edmonton Oilers are a great example, of if the analytics are there eventually the team should figure it out. However, people will also point to the recent coaching change for the Oilers that seems to have sparked the club. They were 3-9-1 when they replaced Head Coach Jay Woodcroft with Kris Knoblauch. The Oilers have been red hot, and are currently 13-12-1.
Now, with regards to the Sens, they do seem to be figuring things out. There is still not a huge sample size, but they do appear to have found a solid top-six forward alignment. Having a line with an xGoals% of 63.8% and one of 57.6% will win you a lot of hockey games. So, part of it is just trusting the process and having patience. We could remind Sens fans that they are in a much better position than in recent years at this time in the calendar.
Does Tim Stutzle Fly With the Big Birds On Teams Top Line?
Back to Stutzle, and the fact he does seem to be figuring things out personally as well. Even if he does struggle defensively in ways, his overall game counteracts. If we analyze On-Ice Expected Goals Differential, Stutzle is first on the Sens and 29th league-wide. His rating is 13.5. This category is led by the Colorado Avalanche Centre, Nathan MacKinnon at 27.9. Many of the league’s top players, specifically centres find themselves on the leaderboard. For instance, Sidney Crosby is sixth at 22.4, Connor McDavid ninth at 21.1, and Auston Matthews is 18th at 18.3. Thus, although Stutzle is strong in this category, he has some work to do to run with the big dogs.
The Big Picture
Tim Stutzle, the team’s number one line centre, is rounding out his game in other ways too. One point is that he is finding success on the line with Giroux and Joseph. Moreover, in terms of the defensive side of the puck, Stutzle is improving in other statistical categories. His defensive point share was 2.0 last year, and he will look to top it this year, as it is already at 0.7. This is a cumulative type statistic, and this year he only has 23 games played compared to 78 last year. He’s on pace for a rating of 2.4 in 2023-24. His faceoffs still need work as he has a 66-80 record on them, good for 45.2%. In contrast, this is a career-high for him. One thing he does need to work on is his turnovers. He is indeed responsible for a lot of zone entries with can cause turnovers, but almost a turnover a game (22) is too high.
Well, there we have it, a review of the analytics behind Stutzle’s defensive game. Just how much influence does he have on the team’s entire defensive schema? As the proposed top-line centre, you would conclude a lot. The numbers do show he is improving, and that the team is trending in the right direction. But, the $110 million question is, when will Michael Andlauer’s recently developed management group have had enough of these baby steps? When will it no longer be okay, to not be perennially entrenched in a playoff position?
There Are Glimmers of Hope on the Horizon
As the team’s busy December and big road trip kicks off tonight in St. Louis, fans are speculating on the margin for error afforded to coach D.J. Smith. Will the team’s defence put it together in time? It is not aided by the injury to Thomas Chabot, who is expected to miss about six weeks from now. Mark Kastelic will soon be back from injury and was eying an Arizona homecoming for himself. The Sens square off in Arizona against the Coyotes this coming Tuesday. Finally, it is getting closer to Shane Pinto being eligible for a return, which is on January 21st against the Philadelphia Flyers. He can only start skating 10 days before that date with the club, as per CBA restrictions. Will he sign the $875K qualifying offer? Stay tuned.
Main photo: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
