Today’s NHL Predictions features an Eastern Conference matchup. On Wednesday, the Tampa Bay Lightning (9-6-5) had their three-game win streak snapped in overtime against the Winnipeg Jets. The Lightning pieced together a solid effort with goals from Steven Stamkos and Brayden Point. However, the team now has the most overtime or shootout losses.
On the other side of this matchup, the Carolina Hurricanes (11-7) continue to search for the level of play they were consistent with over the past few seasons. Sebastian Aho leads the offensive charge with 16 points on the season. Furthermore, a bounce-back season from Teuvo Teravainen has improved goal-scoring. Teravainen leads the team with ten goals for the year. In addition, a breakout from their young star, Seth Jarvis, has been a pleasant surprise.
Tampa Bay heads to Raleigh against a Carolina team that is difficult to beat on home ice. The Lightning have found consistency over their last four games. Additionally, expect Andrei Vasilevskiy to return to the crease in the upcoming weeks. Here are the keys to victory for the Lightning in this matchup.
NHL Predictions: Tampa Bay vs Carolina
Three Keys to Victory for Tampa Bay
Fourth Line Play
There is no secret that a weakness of this Lightning team is their depth. Tampa Bay lost all the “middlemen” from their Stanley Cup runs due to salary cap constraints, including names like Ryan McDonagh, Ondrej Palat, Alex Killorn, and Yanni Gourde. While all the stars are still around, the rest of the team consists of cost-efficient pieces, causing their fourth line to be a weakness on the roster.
A line of Cole Koepke, Luke Glendening, and Austin Watson struggled against the Jets. In four minutes and forty seconds together, the trio controlled roughly one-fifth of the expected goal share on-ice (20.4 xGF%) at 5v5. Meanwhile, the rest of the Lightning roster had an expected goals percentage of 47% or more. The fourth line is not up to par with the rest of the roster. Furthermore, the trio did not register a single shot on goal.
The reason that depth matters against a team like Carolina is because of the Rod Brind’Amour system. In his system, no matter the players, they always elevate their on-ice stats and dominate. The Carolina fourth line will have a feast with Tampa Bay if they do not bring their A-game.
The Defence of Victor Hedman
Victor Hedman is experiencing a bounce-back season at even strength offensively. Hedman ranks third in even strength points for defencemen only behind Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar. Furthermore, he solidified his spot on the top power-play unit for the Bolts. Despite his superb offensive play, Hedman is not contributing on the defensive side of the puck.
Hedman has been on the ice for 21 even-strength goals against, tied for 14th worst amongst all defencemen. Furthermore, Hedman has been on the ice for the most expected goals against in the entire league (25.05 xGA) at even strength. While Hedman is not the most gifted defensively anymore, being a league-worst defensive player is unacceptable. Tampa Bay should be able to count on Hedman to help out Jonas Johansson, not hurt him.
Continue Generating High-Danger Chances
A component of the Lightning offence that has gone under the radar this season is their high-danger chance generation. Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point continue to be a dynamic duo at even strength and on the power play. Kucherov and Point rank top-three in on-ice high-danger corsi at even strength. As a team, the Lightning rank fifth in high-danger Corsi per hour (13.61 HDCF/60).
The Hurricanes rank in the lower half of high-danger save percentage at even strength (80.39%). While the Hurricanes do not allow many high-danger chances they get, the Lightning can rely on their talented shooters to bury the chances they generate. They likely will not out-chance the Hurricanes, so the Lightning must finish their scoring opportunities.
Prediction Time
This Eastern Conference matchup features two teams finding their stride as the season progresses. The Hurricanes are tough to beat at home and have won eight of their last 11 games. Tampa Bay awaits the return of Vasilevskiy. The season series has featured two shutouts, one for each side. We expect another exciting matchup where Tampa Bay earns two points.
Prediction: Tampa Bay wins 4-2
Line Statistics via Money Puck
Corsi Statistics via Natural Stat Trick
Main Photo Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports
