Every year, as the calendar winds through Thanksgiving, hockey fans get reminded over and over about playoff implications. It marks the first significant milestone in the season, with roughly a quarter of the schedule completed. Every hockey media outlet talks about it ad nauseam: the majority of teams occupying a playoff spot today typically qualify for the postseason by year’s end. Despite early inconsistent play, the Colorado Avalanche sit on the right side of that cut line, occupying second in the Central Division.
Colorado Avalanche Inconsistent, Yet Strong Thus Far
Coming out of the Thanksgiving holiday, the Avs hold an admirable 12-6-0 record, good for 24 points. That lands them fifth overall in the Western Conference, and still within earshot of the top. League-wide, they rank eighth out of 32 squads too. They possess the third-highest scoring rate with 3.83 goals per game, and the fourth-best penalty kill (87.32%).
Despite all these signs, the fanbase still has plenty of reasons for frustration. The record does not quite capture the inconsistent way the Avalanche performed day-to-day. Yes, they won two-thirds of their games thus far. But in the one-third that ended as losses, the team looked bad. Like, really bad.
Avalanche Shutout Defeats
After the Avs kicked off the year on a blazing six-game win streak, momentum came to a drastic halt. In back-to-back road losses, Colorado failed to score and allowed a combined eight goals against. They picked up a win after that, but immediately followed that up with a 7-0 blowout loss to the Vegas Golden Knights.
That last defeat echoed around the NHL as a “statement game” for the defending champions in Vegas. It stood as the first matchup between the most-recent two Cup winners, and the Golden Knights absolutely took it to the Avs. Sure Colorado had their chances, but ultimately couldn’t finish; meanwhile, Vegas capitalized on seemingly every chance they had.
After eleven contests, the Avs sat at 8-3-0, and every one of those losses was a shutout defeat with four or more goals against. In their eight wins, they racked up 38 goals. That inconsistent nature had Avalanche fans scratching their heads.
More Bizarre Inconsistencies
In their most-recent seven-game stretch, following the period noted above, Colorado went 4-3-0. They netted another 32 goals, and allowed 24. Only one of their three losses came by way of a blowout, but still that 8-2 drubbing from the St. Louis Blues felt awful.
The one and only “normal” loss this season came in a 4-3 home loss to the Seattle Kraken. They paid Seattle back with two road wins in the Emerald City though, one on either side of the defeat. And even in the loss, they outshot and out-possessed the Kraken. Over an 82-game season, good teams inevitably lose some games despite playing well. That was the case for this one.
Predators Heartbreaker
From the looks of it, the loss to the Nashville Predators appeared relatively typical as well. Another 4-3 defeat, this time though with the Preds holding a slight advantage in shots, chances, and possession. This one hurt more than any others to-date though, as they held a 3-2 lead in the final minute of play.
Nashville managed to tie the game with the goalie pulled, and added another in the dying seconds off a strange bounce that left the puck in front of the net with Alexandar Georgiev unaware. In sixteen seconds, the Avs allowed two goals. They sat just 38 seconds away from a regulation win when Nashville tied it up. They sat just 22 seconds from at least one guaranteed overtime point when Nashville took the lead.
Colorado bounced back with a solid win to go into Thanksgiving on a positive note. Still, their six losses stood full of regrettable performances. Three shutouts, two huge blowouts, and at least four goals against in all six combines for a lot of disappointing play from a team full of players who are simply far better than those games suggest.
Strongest Players Thus Far
Ultimately, the Avalanche inconsistent play still ranks better than the majority of teams in the NHL. If anything, that should actually give them more confidence than doubt. If they can clean up the long stretches of lackluster performance, they could be extremely difficult to beat each and every night.
Leading the Avs in scoring, Cale Makar already has five goals and 29 points in just 18 games. That pace would blow his previous season highs out of the water, an incredible feat for someone who already has a Norris Trophy to his name. Mikko Rantanen sits in the top five in the league in goals (12), and his 25 points put him just behind Makar. Then, Nathan MacKinnon sits third with 23 points.
Those three names atop the list come as no surprise. Valeri Nichushkin sits fourth, with 17 points in 18 games, and currently rides a four-game goal streak. His takeoff came at a great time, especially with Arturi Lehkonen out for the foreseeable future with an undisclosed injury.
Where the Avalanche Could Improve Inconsistent Issues
Colorado did a lot this summer to improve their depth scoring. While none of the new players have really broken out, the combined production from all of them surely helps. Ryan Johansen has six goals, but only seven points as the team’s second line centre. Miles Wood and Ross Colton contributed seven and nine points as well, respectively.
Jonathan Drouin simply hasn’t found his stride either, with just five points. He did nab his second goal of the year recently, though, so perhaps he can find some confidence from that. Joel Kiviranta just signed a contract and joined the team on the fourth line, and already has four points in five games. That is the type of depth play that puts this Avs team into Cup contender status.
Goaltending Struggles
At the end of the day, though, goaltending has to be reliable. Georgiev looked fantastic early, but once the team lost those first couple, he has been shaky at best. His quality start percentage stands at just .375%, while his save percentage ranks at a poor .891%.
With Pavel Francouz out for the year, Ivan Prosvetov arrived and thus far serves as the team’s backup. They don’t seem to trust him entirely, at least not yet, as he received just two starts. Considering Georgiev’s struggles, it feels quite telling that the Avs continue electing to ride Georgiev rather than offer Prosvetov more opportunities.
If Georgiev finds his game, good goaltending solves a lot of problems for any team. If the newcomers on offence start picking it up now that there’s more familiarity, the team’s scoring will climb even higher. So, if either one or both of those things can happen, the Avs could absolutely win the Cup again this season. After all, they’re one of the best teams in the league as it stands already. Improving upon that only makes them that much scarier.
Main Photo: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
