Today’s NHL Predictions features a cross-conference matchup. The Tampa Bay Lightning (9-6-1) now ride a three-game win streak after an emotional overtime game against the Boston Bruins on Monday. Steven Stamkos tied the contest with four seconds left on the clock off a beautiful cross-ice feed by Nikita Kucherov. Furthermore, the Lightning outshot the Bruins 46-27 and pieced together an excellent offensive game. However, a few defensive breakdowns kept Boston in the game. Brandon Hagel buried a breakaway in overtime while streaking down the middle to secure two points for Tampa Bay.
On the other side of this matchup, the Winnipeg Jets (10-5-1) are off to a solid start to the season. Kyle Connor leads the way for the Jets with 22 points. In addition, his 14 goals rank first in the NHL. Not far behind Connor, Mark Scheifele remains an offensive weapon after signing a massive extension this past off-season. Josh Morrissey operates the blue line and experienced a breakout season last year. He already has 16 points in 17 games so far in 2023-24.
Tampa Bay hosts another top-ten team in the standings tonight. The Lightning brought their A-game to Amalie on Monday night to defeat the first-place team in the NHL. Tampa Bay looks to continue their win streak and close out the three-game homestand. Here are the keys to victory for the Lightning in this matchup.
NHL Predictions: Tampa Bay vs Winnipeg
Three Keys to Victory for Tampa Bay
The New Tampa Bay Third Line
In the past couple of games, Jon Cooper crafted a new third line after an injury to Anthony Cirelli. The line consists of Tanner Jeannot, Tyler Motte, and Michael Eyssimont. Despite the fact that none of the three is a natural centreman, the trio has clicked in the 21 minutes of ice time together. The physicality and grit of Jeannot brings a pace to the forecheck and a presence in front of the net. Eyssimont is a relentless forechecker who drives the rush for the trio. Then, Motte provides a defensive brain to the line that can also get involved in the forecheck. All three players are good forecheckers who cause defencemen to cough up the puck.
In 21 minutes together, the trio controls 63.6% of the expected goal share (63.6 xGF%) at 5v5. Furthermore, the line scores 3.85 expected goals per hour (3.85 xGF/60) at 5v5. This line does a great job of driving play offensively. They outchance their opponents and do not get stuck in the defensive zone. The trio scores 5.5 goals per hour (5.5 GF/60) at 5v5, which ranks first amongst all Lightning forward line combinations with over 20 minutes played. The Jets play a tight defensive game, so the Lightning will rely on dump-ins and grab the puck via the forecheck compared to the rush.
Man-On-Man Defensive Zone Coverage
It is evident that the Lightning switched their defensive zone scheme this season. The team altered from a man-on-man strategy to a zone coverage strategy. Essentially, the Lightning play their defensive zone similarly to a penalty kill. The “box plus one” is the name attributed to this strategy. The centre floats around the middle of the zone to support the box formed by the two defencemen and wingers. While many thought this scheme would be effective, it has only done harm to the Bolts.
During their Stanley Cup Playoff runs, the Lightning relied on a man-on-man system in the defensive zone. The team picked up sticks and cleared opposing players from the front of the net with ease. This season, Tampa Bay leaves players wide open and uncontested in dangerous areas of the ice. While man-on-man requires a lot more energy, it is more suitable for the current roster construction of the Lightning. If Tampa Bay reverts back to man-on-man against Winnipeg, they may limit the number of costly mistakes and not have to rely on scoring four or more goals to win the game.
Use The Point
A trend that has developed for the Lightning is when they use the point frequently in the offensive zone, they generate a flurry of high-quality scoring chances. Often, Tampa Bay attempts to work the puck down low and ends up overhandling or turning it over. However, when the forwards activate the defencemen in the offensive zone, the Lightning dominate the shot count and scoreboard. In the game against Boston on Monday, the Lightning used their defenders in the offensive zone and were able to sustain pressure on the Bruins. When the Lightning maintain pressure, they build confidence, and the Lightning with confidence can be a deadly team.
Prediction Time
This cross-conference matchup features a respectable Jets roster and a Lightning team finding their stride. The Jets remain underrated through the regular season with one of the top goal-scorers in the league. Tampa Bay continues to push through without Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is near return. While the Jets are not an easy opponent to beat, we expect the Lightning to earn two points.
Prediction: Tampa Bay wins 4-3
Line Statistics via Money Puck
Main Photo Credit: Morgan Tencza-USA TODAY Sports
