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NHL Predictions: Carolina Hurricanes Three Keys for Victory vs. the Edmonton Oilers

NHL Predictions

Today’s NHL predictions features a 2006 Stanley Cup Championship reunion. The Carolina Hurricanes welcome the Edmonton Oilers to Raleigh. Neither team has actually made it to the Cup Final since 2006 even though both have been top contenders for a few years now. Both were preseason favourites to win the Cup this season, but neither are really living up to those expectations. Although Carolina’s situation is less drastic than Edmonton’s.

Carolina comes into this game following a big 4-2 win over the Pittsburgh Penguins. Seth Jarvis had two goals including the game-winner and Antti Raanta stopped 26 of 28 shots to secure the win. It was a much-needed win following an embarrassing loss to the Philadelphia Flyers. The Hurricanes are in a sort of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde phase where every other game shifts from good to bad. Finding consistency to string another win at home against a struggling Edmonton team will be key to gaining some consistency.

Meanwhile, Edmonton comes to North Carolina following another disappointing loss against the Florida Panthers. Overall, the season for the Oilers has been nothing short of a major disappointment. Superstar forwards Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are both in slumps and the team already fired head coach Jay Woodcroft. Teams’ standings at the American Thanksgiving Holiday is historically a good indicator of whether teams will make the playoffs or not. However, it’s not a guarantee and the Oilers could certainly make some noise. But they are in a big hole looking to climb out.

Any team with Connor McDavid is going to be a threat regardless of other circumstances. Carolina will need to play another hard and consistent game to stay in the win column. Here are three keys for the Hurricanes victory.

NHL Predictions: Hurricanes vs. Oilers

Three Keys to Victory for the Carolina Hurricanes

Hurricanes Top Two Lines Clicking

The Hurricanes score-by-committee approach has worked fairly well for the team the last few years. But it doesn’t mean they don’t want their top players to be top players. You don’t sign Sebastian Aho to a big deal expecting him to score the same as Jordan Martinook? Having the top six forwards producing is key for the team’s success.

Line One Keep it Going

Rod Brind’Amour put together Aho, Teuvo Teravainen and Jarvis last game as the team’s top line. And they did not disappoint. Out of the Hurricanes four goals against Pittsburgh, three were scored by members of the top line. And if you want to see a skilled passing play amongst a top-line, look no further than Aho’s goal to tie the game in the second period. Pass, shoot, score.

While only playing 45 minutes together this year, that top line leads the Hurricanes forward lines playing at least 30 minutes together in expected goals per 60 minutes played with 3.2. They have three goals for and none against. If they can keep working like seen above against Pittsburgh, it could spell trouble for Edmonton.

Line Two Get it Going

Meanwhile, the second line of Andrei Svechnikov, Martin Necas and Jesperi Kotkaniemi needs to find some of the chemistry they had last year. There was not too much for them to brag about against Pittsburgh but did seem to have a goal until it was called back for offsides. They only have about 20 minutes of ice time together and Svechnikov is still getting back to his game after starting the season injured.

They have one goal against and none for so far. Rod Brind’Amour loves to mix the lines so don’t be surprised to see this line change. But if together, or for that matter whoever the second line is, there needs to be production. You need the second line to be a threat almost every time they are on the ice. This will be key in keeping up the pressure on the Oilers.

The Third Defensive Pair Finding Chemistry

The Hurricanes top four defencemen of Brent Burns, Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce and Brady Skjei are fairly set in stone. They would match up with almost any other team’s top four as top in the league. But the third pair has been a revolving door of moderate success. Actually, maybe no success at all. The third pair has been either Dmitry Orlov and Tony DeAngelo or Orlov and Jalen Chatfield. The Orlov/Chatfield pairing seems to have fewer breakdowns and miscommunication, but it isn’t perfect either.

The eye test seems to show this pairing constantly giving up bad goals and easy chances. And that’s a backbreaker for the team when the other pairs and forward lines are clicking. Sidney Crosby‘s first goal in the last game was a good example of this breakdown. Orlov had a costly turnover and DeAngelo was out of position in the defensive zone. This led to an easy backdoor goal for number 87.

Statistical Deeper Dive

So we see what we feel is the case based on watching, but what do the stats say? The Orlov/DeAngelo pairing has the most goals against on the team as a pair with nine. Slavin and Burns have eight goals against. So actually not a big deal right? Well, the big difference is that Orlov and DeAngelo also have a team worst goals against per sixty minutes played of 6.1. The next closest is Skjei/Slavin at 5.51 BUT they have only played ten minutes together.

Meanwhile, Orlov/Chatfield only has two goals against and 1.56 goals against per sixty minutes played. They only have one goal for compared to Orlov/DeAngelo’s three, but the goal differential is way better. Orlov/DeAngelo fare better offensively in both actual stats and advanced analytics while Orlov/Chatfield is much better defensively. The Orlov/Chatfield pairing also has two expected goals for compared to two expected goals against. This net zero is not the worst for a third pair. Orlov/DeAngelo are negative in expected goals compared to expected goals against.

DeAngelo has stayed in the lineup for his utilization on the power play. However, Brind’Amour is looking to get Chatfield back into the rotation as he does not need to sit for long. Slavin took some rotations quarterbacking the top power play unit on Monday so Chatfield may return to the lineup in place of DeAngelo soon. Regardless of whoever it is, this pair has to stop giving easy chances and find a way to play a consistent 60 minutes. Any lapses in judgment or hesitations might end up with the puck in the net. And not in a good way for Carolina.

Limiting Connor McDavid’s Chances

Any team that plays against the Edmonton Oilers will likely have one item on their to-do list as a key to win. Stop Connor McDavid. It does not matter if he is in a slump or lighting the world on fire. When the puck is on his stick, things happen. He doesn’t need much space, time or even favourable odds. Four on one, no problem.

McDavid can make it happen. Even with his slow start right now, he has six goals this season, including two against the Florida Panthers. If he is heating up that’s not good for Carolina. McDavid can beat you in many ways but the name of the game for him is speed. So what does Carolina do?

For one, don’t lose track of McDavid. The Hurricanes play a man-on-man defence and whoever is assigned to McDavid cannot let him go unmarked. As Carolina’s best defensive defenceman, this will likely fall on Slavin who has done fairly well historically opposite McDavid. Another thing Carolina needs to do is limit McDavid’s time and space. As much as possible, as soon as he gets the puck Carolina needs a man (or two) on McDavid to prevent his ability to take off like a jet. But that’s tricky itself as overcommitment could lead to a breakaway. It’s not an easy task. And it won’t show up on the scoresheet. But the players that accomplish this are just as vital to a Wednesday night victory.

Of course, there is still Draisaitl Carolina has to watch too. This is what makes Edmonton so tricky sometimes. Luckily for Carolina, they are at home and have the last change. This will help get favourable matchups on the ice and hopefully quiet McDavid’s effectiveness. If they take a breath on McDavid, he will make them pay.

Prediction Time

This should be an interesting one. Carolina is looking to string together back-to-back wins and consistent efforts. Edmonton is still trying to climb out of their early season hole. The Hurricanes will want to use Saturday night’s momentum to power the team and keep up the success at home this season (5-1-0). Shutting down McDavid is always a tall but necessary task against Edmonton. But Carolina will need to pot a few themselves. If the top two lines can keep up the offence and the third pairing can play a consistent 60-minute game, Carolina might pull out the victory here.

Prediction: Carolina wins 4-3

Main Photo Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports

Alec Roberson

Alec Roberson

Alec Roberson grew up in coastal North Carolina, taking a somewhat unconventional path to hockey. With hockey being almost nonexistent in that area, Alec found his passion for the game following the success of the Carolina Hurricanes in 2001 and 2006 and later played club hockey in college. After going through law school and practicing for some time, he now continues his love for the game through writing. Find him on twitter @roberson_alec

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