What are reasonable expectations for Drake Batherson for the duration of the 2023-24 season? Previously we had reviewed the top-six forward group for the Ottawa Senators. At that time, we suggested Batherson would hit around 65 points, more so as an upper limit. Now that the season is underway, Batherson seems to be plagued with a bit of bad luck offensively. He hits the crossbar every other game. Perhaps recording his first power play goal of the season last game will ignite him. Last year, Batherson notched 14 on the power play. Moreover, his defensive efforts tend to leave some to be desired. Therefore, we will review his outcome expectations for the remainder of 2023-24.
Drake Batherson’s Breakout Offensive Campaign Fueling Expectations
If Drake Batherson can perform to his potential, his expectations are very high. After all, if it wasn’t for a January ankle injury, he was nearly a point-per-game player back in 2021-22 (44 in 46). One aspect of the Senators roster that would intuitively limit expectations is the offensive depth. To that point, the Senators have up to three full lines with high offensive potential. Six of their forwards have a career-high of 30 or more goals. The point is, there is only so much offence to go around. Batherson’s career-high is only 22, which he hit last year. In contrast, it is noteworthy that his shooting percentage was down to 8.8%. Tough to hit 30 with such a number, and also, not a true playmaker on their line.
In fact, Batherson would be considered to have had the attribute of playmaker of the line. Probably more of a shooting playmaker, something akin to the likes of former star Sen centre Jason Spezza. The line itself comprised Alex DeBrincat and Shane Pinto. Fast forward to this year, in recent games, Batherson has been reunited with Joshua Norris and Brady Tkachuk. Throughout the last couple of years, back to 2020-21, the trio has spent a lot of ice time together. Again, this alignment would naturally see Batherson slot in as the playmaker. Which is fine, given his slick hands in tight. However, you don’t want this ideology pigeonholing him, and not allowing him to fulfill his scoring potential. He finds himself open down-low often or off the rush and has a powerful, toe-drag release-style wrist shot. The more he utilizes it, the more goals he will accumulate.
The Development of the Big Line Tkachuk, Norris, and Batherson
If we look back to 2020-21 specifically, Batherson’s line with Tkachuk and Norris was highly effective. Totaling 248 minutes played together even strength, they had an xGoals% of 54.4 Watching them you could see they just clicked. Norris and Batherson seemed to have immediate chemistry. Also, adding the physical presence, not to mention the extra time and space Brady provides, the line gelled nicely. Individually for Batherson, there were signs of defensive struggles. His expected differential of goals for versus against was negative (-0.2). Conversely, with the success of the line, and the fact they would pin teams deep for extended periods, there was little to not like about Batherson’s game big picture. His CF% Rel of 7.9 speaks to that perspective.
Just How Dominant Is the Trio?
We mentioned the following season 2021-22 previously referencing Batherson’s more than impressive PPG (0.96). Again, the line saw plenty of time together. Unfortunately, as a unit, and perhaps indicative of the team’s performance as a whole, they weren’t as effective. Their xGoals% dipped to a sub-par 46.8. Batherson still struggled defensively, with a worse expected goal differential (-1.3) and he would turn the puck over. On the other hand, Batherson seemed to really be putting his offensive game together. Along with the elevated PPG, his CF% Rel ranked well at 12.3.
If we look to last year, it was difficult for Batherson and his line. For starters, the former trio with Norris and Tkachuk was unavailable due to Norris only playing eight games. Hence, Batherson played with a rookie centre and a newcomer. The consensus was that Pinto was playing up in the lineup, but he was also trying to find himself as an NHLer. Pinto didn’t really know how to shoot or pass and became a shooter only because he was hot. Sure it helped him hit the 20-mark, but the line never developed an identity. Even though Batherson put up career marks in many categories, it ended up as a season of what-ifs.
Can Batherson Turn His Defensive Game Around?
For this season, there are some lessons learned and takeaways from Batherson’s game. First of all, he can be a shooter. Batherson over doubled his previous career-high with 249 shots. In contrast, his shooting percentage struggled mightily, at 8.8%, down from 15.5% the previous season. So far, he is at 11.4%, which is a better standard. Since being reunited with Norris and Tkachuk, it seems both Norris and Batherson are generating momentum. This must be an influence of Brady because it doesn’t seem to matter who his linemates are. His eight goals through 13 games have him amongst the NHL leaders. The takeaway for Batherson, is when he is on this line, he needs to shoot when the opportunity presents itself, but he is more of the playmaker on the line.
In terms of precise expectations for Drake Batherson, he wants to keep improving and play a full season. He needs to be physical and be engaged on the puck. Last year he had a career-high 115 hits, and needs to be near that again this year. Even though his line struggled to finish last year, Batherson ended up with a very strong expected goals differential. It was the only time in his career that it ended up on the right side of zero (5.9). He has struggled out of the gate (-2.3) but is back with familiar faces, look for him to flip the switch.
Most Importantly, How to Best Help the Team
Drake Batherson is a great template for what the Ottawa Senators expectations and strategy are all about. Defence needs to be a huge part of the focus of the forwards game. They need pucks in deep, but keep them deep. Dump and chase isn’t the answer unless you are able to throw the body around and have puck retrieval with support. Something akin to the great ball possession teams of the NFL like the Tom Brady led New England Patriots, or the Detroit Red Wings of the late 90s. The best offence is the best defence. With a little bit of luck and chemistry, things will turn around for Batherson and the entire Senators lineup.
Main photo: Marc DesRosiers-USA TODAY Sports
