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The Vancouver Canucks Are Good and It Is Strange

The Vancouver Canucks are good and it feels strange. Nobody, not even the most optimistic Canucks fan, could’ve predicted that they would be this good to start 2023-24. They were supposed to be a playoff bubble team as projected by many analytics models. The Canucks have a 10-2-1 record and believe it or not, that is the best start in franchise history. Yes, even better than the juggernaut that was the 2010-11 team.

It hasn’t all been perfect but it has been a fun ride. The Canucks weren’t their best selves in the 5-2 win over the Ottawa Senators on Thursday. They were outshot by the Senators 30-16 and turned the puck over often. It seemed like they weren’t creating much offence but they still found a way to score five goals and two of those came on their first two shots of the game.

Stats show the Canucks are good

At the time of this writing, the Canucks sit third in the entire NHL. They are two points behind the league-leading Boston Bruins and Western Conference-leading Vegas Golden Knights

With 59 goals, the Canucks are the highest-scoring team in the league. It’s been a long time since they led the league in scoring. The last time? You guessed it, 2010-11. They are on pace to finish the season with 372 goals

Vancouver is averaging 4.54 goals a game and that is also first in the NHL.

Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes, Thatcher Demko, JT Miller, Filip Hronek and Brock Boeser are leading the way for the Canucks.

Pettersson leads the NHL in scoring with 24 points and he’s on pace for 151 points. Against the Senators, he didn’t have a good game as he turned the puck over multiple times. But he still put up three points. That goes to show the Canucks have an elite player. Oh, and he needs a new contract at the end of this season. He deserves to get paid.

Hughes leads all defenceman in scoring with 21. Victor Hedman of the Tampa Bay Lightning is close behind with 17. Hughes is also fourth in the NHL in scoring with 21. Don’t look now but he is the favourite for the Norris Trophy.

His defence partner Filip Hronek has been impressive. Hronek’s 14 points have him fourth in scoring among defenceman. The pairing of Hughes and Hronek has been one of, if not, the best pairing in the NHL so far this season. Hronek has complemented Hughes well with his excellent defensive raise. Oh yeah, he too needs a new contract at the end of the season.

The pace they are on is insane.

After dealing with a groin injury last season, Thatcher Demko is back to being an elite NHL goaltender. He is second in the NHL in goals against average (1.61) and third in save percentage (.948)

Miller has been a divisive figure among the Canucks fanbase for over a year and a half now. Why? One reason was that he was always involved in trade rumours. The other is Canucks fans have been divided on Miller signing a seven-year extension worth eight million dollars a season. Miller last season showed off a lot of angry moments, (including yelling at Collin Delia to leave the ice for the extra skater late in a game against the Winnipeg Jets.) poor backchecks and some really bad turnovers. If there is one player that really benefited from Rick Tocchet’s impact, it’s him.

This season, Miller has been different in the best possible way. The bad turnovers are gone, the defensive efforts are a lot better and he has used his anger to get into the skin of opponents such as Connor McDavid.

Boeser is in a three-way tie for second in the NHL in goals (11) with Tampa Bay Lightning and Winnipeg Jets stars Nikita Kucherov and Kyle Connor respectively. He is on pace for 69 goals. (Nice!) After going through tough times on and off the ice and being constantly in trade rumours the last couple of years, it is good to see Boeser scoring at a productive rate. Not all goals have been deadly snipes, but at this rate, he’ll take all the rebounds and garbage goals he’ll take. Could this be the year Boeser hits 30 goals? He is 36% of the way there with 69 (again, nice!) games remaining.

It is strange to see the Canucks team stats and even some individual stats so high. But you have to wonder about the inevitable.

Is regression coming?

As much fun as the Canucks hot streak is, it is very unlikely it is sustainable.

One might say they have gotten lucky. Well, that is partly true. The Canucks have the highest PDO ever recorded to start a season.

If you don’t know what PDO is, it adds together a team’s 5 on 5 shooting percentage and 5 on 5 save percentage. PDO doesn’t stand for anything by the way. It is a stat that measures luck because shooting and saves can be influenced by luck. For example, a shot from the point can take a lucky bounce off a defender on the way.

As you can see in the chart above, all the teams that had high PDO to start the season made the playoffs except for the 2010-11 Dallas Stars. They went the first two months with a 14-8-1 record but they couldn’t recover from a 3-8-1 February and missed the playoffs by two points. (As a result, the Canucks faced the Chicago Blackhawks in the playoffs in the first round. It was the third straight year they faced each other in the playoffs.) Only one of those teams made it to the second round and that was the 2018-19 New York Islanders.

PDO doesn’t mean much and again, it is a stat determining luck. But if history tells us anything, the Canucks and their high PDO will regress.

It’s inevitable but how much will they regress is the question. Could they go on a big losing streak at some point? It’s possible. Will they have bad games? Definitely.

The Canucks are on pace for 132 points which would be a franchise record. That’s not realistic, however. But even if the Canucks play average for the rest of the season they’ll still make the playoffs. In past years, the teams that make the playoffs as wild card berths get at least 93 points. The Canucks seem well on their way to eclipse that mark at this current rate.

It would take a monumental collapse to miss the playoffs. It would be similar to the 2010-11 Stars, if not worse.

The Canucks will regress but it would be surprising if they regress by a lot. Regression will have them winning games 3-2 instead of 5-2 or 6-2. They will have two or three-game win streaks instead of five. At this point, Canucks will take it if those are what regression means.

Of course, they have to stay as healthy as possible to maintain the course they are on.

It won’t last forever but for now, let’s enjoy the fun ride the Canucks are putting us on.

Main Photo: Marc DesRosiers-USA TODAY Sports

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