Today’s NHL Predictions features a rematch between the New Jersey Devils and Washington Capitals. These teams played a little over three weeks ago in a wild, ill-defended, 6-4 Capitals win. The Devils (7-4-1) return home from a four-game road trip against Central division foes. They went 2-2 on the trip, but the highlight was Jack Hughes’s injury. The last time these two teams met Hughes registered three assists, and his absence has been heavily felt since his departure.
In their last matchup against the Capitals, the Devils fell behind to an early 3-0 deficit after the first period. Akira Schmid was pulled and the team blitzed the Capitals for four goals in five and a half minutes. Then in the third, they inexplicably let in three goals and fell victim to their poor defensive game. The Devils come into tonight’s game still licking their wounds from their most recent loss, a 6-3 defeat to the Colorado Avalanche. A big test awaits to see if they’ve learned from their defensive mistakes from their recent games.
NHL Predictions: New Jersey vs. Washington
Three Keys to Victory
Limit Odd-Man Rushes
The thread that binds the Devils first game against the Capitals and their last game against the Avalanche is the excessive amount of odd-man rushes they gave up. In both games, they repeatedly had defensive blunders due to over-pursuing plays and not managing the puck properly. Against the Avalanche, they gave up 10 odd-man rushes which resulted in goals and inflated their high-danger scoring chances against. For the Devils to have success against the Capitals this time around they’ll need to lean heavily on their defence the tighten up. Washington ranks 31st in Goals For with 22, with over 25% of their season total coming against the Devils. Long story short, the Devils cannot give the Capitals easy chances or lose the high-danger chance battle. Despite the loss of Hughes, they have the ability to score goals, the question comes to whether they can defend their own net.
Can a Goaltender Step Up
Lindy Ruff has made Vitek Vanecek the de facto number one, giving him the majority of the starts. The results have been mixed. In his last start against Colorado, he had a -1.2 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAX) according to MoneyPuck. In their last meeting with Washington, Schmid had a -2.34 GSAX and was pulled after one period. A starting goalie is yet to be announced, but either way, they need one to step up. Both keepers have a negative GSAX which in the long term is an issue. For tonight, the Devils just need whoever is in the net to play above expected.
Keep Shooting Timo
Timo Meier may be the most snakebite player on the Devils currently. He is second on the team in Expected Goals at 5.3 and Expected Goals per 60 at 1.54, yet has only three goals to show for it. On their Central Division road trip, however, Meier averaged 4.5 shots per game and a whopping seven shots against the St. Louis Blues. With Hughes out, Meier has looked much more like the player the Devils traded for. He has taken the “bull in a china shop” mentality and has been all over the ice. A powerplay goal against Colorado should hopefully give him some more confidence, but it’s been evident his breakout is coming.
Prediction Time
With the absence of Hughes and Nico Hischier, the Devils need to collect points against “inferior” opponents. Despite the scoreline of their last matchup, the Capitals have not been a good team this year. Even without their top two centres, the Devils still have the horses to outscore an aging Capitals team. This game likely comes down to the Devil’s defensive performance. If they have another clunker like they did in the first matchup, or against Colorado, they’re doomed. It was so bad the last game that it’s difficult seeing them put up that bad of performance two times around.
Prediction: Devils win 3-2
Main Photo: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
