The Senators Head Coach D.J. Smith, on social media particularly, but also from game results, seems to get heat for the lacklustre Ottawa Senators defensive stats. From an onlooker’s perspective, it can be described as the team’s defensive structure and the systems they implement. Last night against the Tampa Bay Lightning the fans were noticeably aggravated. The reason may not be entirely clear, but Captain Brady Tkachuk had strong words after the 6 – 4 loss at Canadian Tire Centre. In any case, here we take a look at what the Senators do apply as a defensive structure. We will then analyze how they perform at that, offer some possible solutions, and decide whether D.J. is fairly to blame.
Full Brady interview here from post-game. https://t.co/GJxi3ypuXw
— Ian Mendes (@ian_mendes) November 5, 2023
Are the Ottawa Senators Defensive Stats That Bad?
One observation that seems relevant at times is that the forwards and the defence are disjointed. You must have razor-sharp, meticulous, clockwork rotation at the NHL level, and it just appears as though the Senators do not. Furthermore, this is visual through some of the Ottawa Senators defensive stats. For example, according to moneypuck.com, the Sens are 23rd in the league in giveaways and 24th in defensive zone giveaways. Too often they struggle to make crisp breakout passes. In terms of structure, if your wingers aren’t strong against the boards, in position, it will lead to defensive zone turnovers. You must break out as a unit. These types of statistics are very much dependent on the system the team applies, which would be a result of coaching. Well-developed strategies would enable puck support, and the centres helping out to avoid these issues in their own end.
It Appears the Stats Don’t Lie
More stats show the Ottawa Senators defensive woes. If you adhere to the philosophy, that the best defence, is a strong offence that also hasn’t been Ottawa’s strong point. Again, the Senators rank down in the league at 29th with a 2.92 expected goals against per 60 at 5 on 5 play. This shows that they aren’t preventing teams from generating offence. Regardless if their goalie is playing well or not, this needs to be improved. This is especially bad when you consider they rank 29th in expected goal differential, due to their offence struggling. The two largely go hand and hand. If they were better at generating offence, they probably wouldn’t be giving up as much defensively.
Too much of their offence is off the rush and ends up as a one-and-done type of scenario. They need to establish a consistent cycle and go hard on the forecheck. Any team led by captain Brady Tkachuk you would anticipate is a physical team. On the contrary, from the stats, they rank 23rd in the NHL in hits. They lack identity, and being physical is a great way to establish an identity. Now, not to say that is imperative to success to be a physical team. But when the defending Stanley Cup Champions, the Vegas Golden Knights, are currently the league leader, it’s not a bad model to build your identity around. Even a more offensively dependent lineup, like the Toronto Maple Leafs ranks fourth in the category.
The Players Do Need Accountability but From Where?
Now we must ask, is coach D.J. Smith to blame for the Ottawa Senators poor defensive stats? The answer is yes and no. At some point, the team needs to be accountable for coverage breakdowns. Whether it is the coach that better needs to hold players to that accountability or they just need to be better.
Last night, the Sens were outshot 37 to 28, and that is with an impressive reversal of fortunes in the third. They outshot Tampa 12 to six to make the final count more respectable. Also, in the recent game against the Pittsburgh Penguins, they were outshot 42 to 26 but didn’t feel so bad because of the victory. Finally, the team just doesn’t give 60 minutes of effort all the time. Take the Buffalo Sabre game as an example. They were down 5-1, until three late goals in the final four and a half minutes of play. Still, in the end, they were downed 6-4.
Who Can We Blame for the Ottawa Senators Poor Defensive Stats?
The team is undoubtedly struggling all around. It seems they need to get back to what they do well, scoring. Aside from the defensive stats for the Ottawa Senators we have shared, there is one alarming stat from the offensive side of the puck. The team is currently ranked 29th in the league in expected goals percentage. They need more sustained pressure to take the weight of their currently inexperienced defensive crew.
Additionally, one aspect that will turn around for the Senators is their special teams work. Last season this was a point of strength. To start the season they are yet to get going. They are at a solid 22.2% on the power play but are only good for 13th in the NHL. Meanwhile, the penalty killing is worse off, at 22nd. That isn’t a good enough combined standing, which you like to hit the 100% mark. With the 22.2% plus the PK of 75.0% that only gives us 97.2%. When the five-on-five game has struggled as we mentioned, it is a recipe for disaster. Of course, the fact that the Senators play in the toughest division in hockey just compounds their early season struggles.
Main photo: Marc DesRosiers-USA TODAY Sports
