One player does not make a team tick. But there is one member of the Ottawa Senators group of defencemen that sure comes close, Artem Zub. When Zub is injured and out of the lineup, he is sorely missed by his teammates and head coach.
Now two more names have been added to the Sens infirmary list, fellow defencemen, Erik Brannstrom and Thomas Chabot. Brannstrom was injured in Thursday’s game against the New York Islanders and was taken to hospital. He should be fine after the concussion diagnosis. Furthermore, for Chabot, it was announced Friday he will miss four to six weeks with a fracture to his hand. He has been placed on LTIR as a result, which opens up possibilities on call up options. Here we shall focus on Zub. We will take a look into the effectiveness of Artem Zub and why he in particular is extremely difficult to replace.
Ottawa coach DJ Smith announces Thomas Chabot out 4-6 weeks with a fractured hand (shot block). Brannstrom and Zub out, too
— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) October 27, 2023
How Can the Ottawa Senators Replace Artem Zub Defensively?
Artem Zub is a steadying force on the Ottawa Senators blueline. Even battling through injuries last season, he still showed how important he can be to the club. One example of this through seven games this year is the lack of veteran presence on the blueline. Last year, Nick Holden was there, he appeared in 65 games for the Sens in 2022-23.
The Injuries Could Lead to Some Big Opportunities for the Prospects
#sens have recalled Tyler Kleven and Nikolas Matinpalo from Belleville
— Bruce Garrioch (@SunGarrioch) October 28, 2023
This year the team cannot afford that extra layer of security of depth on defence. Instead, they have been relying on their developing d-man, specifically Jacob Bernard-Docker. It appears with the two other injuries, and missing from their lineup with Belleville on Friday, two more call-ups are coming. Tyler Kleven and Nikolas Matinpalo missed the game, and look to be heading to Pittsburgh for Saturday night’s game. As a result, Belleville had played with five defencemen Friday night. A note, if Matinpalo is in the lineup for Ottawa, it would mark his first career NHL game.
Zub’s Impact on the Team
While this is a big opportunity for the youngsters, it is Zub’s defensive coverage that will be missed. It is not entirely evident in the team performance with Zub being in the lineup or not. Last year they were 25-23-5 with Zub in the lineup, and 3-1 thus far in 2023-24. The team finished 39-35-8 in 2022-23, so the team’s performance wasn’t impacted by Zub’s presence. However, it has been noticeable in the team’s three-game losing streak since his absence this year.
Parsing Through the Analytics on Artem Zub Defensively
So how can analytically explain Zub’s importance? First of all, consider his career point share value of 10.9 through four NHL seasons. He has accumulated this total with 9.2 DPS and only 1.6 OPS. As a comparison, looking at Thomas Chabot’s career standings, he is a career 31.9 PS, with 17.2 OPS and 14.7 DPS. Therefore, Zub’s value is much greater on the defensive side of the puck.
The True Defensive Defenceman
It can be difficult to find the analytics speaking to the true value of a player like Zub. In his career, he is 20:04 of average TOI. Moreover, he throws hits and block shots, with both career highs in his 81 games in 21-22 of 124 blocks and 155 hits. In addition, he has a career dZS% of 58.3. This high number would tend to lead to things like not having a great CORSI rating, as his CF% Rel is -4.6. It would be difficult to have more offensive attacks than your opponent when you are often starting in your own zone. Now, it may be a bit of a leap, but where you can see Zub’s value, is in his bend-not-break type of mindset. He does often see himself against top matchups, which in itself is a cause for some poor metrics.
The point worth mentioning is that Zub is highly effective in actually preventing those chances from being converted. If you look at his possession quality, he is a -8.9 in career differential for xGF and xGA. As a note, he has done a great job of improving that standing this year and last, at a combined -0.1. Conversely, despite tending to give up opportunities leading to an elevated expected goals differential metric, he doesn’t actually give up those goals. Case in point, his plus/minus is at a career +10.
Artem Zub Gets It Done
Zub has a heavy shot back at the point, as evidenced by his first goal this year. Even though he doesn’t use it all that much. He doesn’t get many power play chances, as the team is heavy on defence that commands power play time with Chabot, Jakob Chychrun, and of course the youngster of the group, Jake Sanderson. Power play time, especially for defencemen, is a great way to boost your analytics, such as CORSI and total xGF, etc. He does kill penalties, but it is actually not as often as you might expect. This lack of specialty teams opportunity would be a factor in his total ice time not being higher. In contrast, this allows him to be fresh and take on those top five-on-five matchups that he is known to do.
Wrapping It All Up
Here we have reviewed Artem Zub’s defensive abilities, and why he is so valuable to the Senators lineup. This will surely be put to the test, with three of the Senators starting six defencemen out of Saturday’s lineup. Hopefully, Zub will not miss a lot of time, and get back in there helping the club. He is day-to-day currently and possibly draws in for Ottawa’s next home contest, Thursday versus the Los Angeles Kings. Zub is the heartbeat of the team’s defensive defencemen, and the less time he misses, the less pressure on the goaltenders and coaches alike.
Main photo: Marc DesRosiers-USA TODAY Sports
