After an intense opening night against the Nashville Predators, the early troubles of Tampa Bay Lightning are apparent three games into the season. The Lightning dropped two games to divisional opponents. While it is still too early in the season to panic, it’s vital to highlight the struggles at hand and offer a possible solution to correct them.
Analyzing Early Troubles of Tampa Bay Lightning
Struggling Team Defence and Retrievals
The glaring issue for the Lightning through week one of the regular season is their defensive zone. Tampa Bay has allowed 14 goals in three games, more than any other team. The defence has surrendered 4.67 goals against per hour, the third worst in the NHL. In addition, Tampa Bay allowed 4.06 expected goals against per hour, tied for third worst in the league. The tight gap between actual and expected goals proves goaltending is not the issue. The easy way out is to blame the goaltending and recognize the absence of Andrei Vasilevskiy. However, Jonas Johansson and Matt Tomkins have no help in front of them.
The Lightning’s defence struggles to start the season stems from defensive zone retrievals. Last Word’s Kyle Pereira offers critical insight from hand-tracking opening night against the Predators, which was their lone win. The top-four defence group turned the puck over too many times in that win. On 12 defensive zone touches, Nick Perbix turned the puck over three times. His 25% defensive zone giveaway percentage was the worst of all Lightning defencemen. Mikhail Sergachev and Darren Raddysh struggled to retrieve the puck against the Nashville forecheck. The pairing combined for five defensive zone turnovers on 27 puck touches, a 19% defensive zone giveaway percentage. For reference, the bottom pair featuring Calvin de Haan and Erik Cernak did not turn the puck over once on 24 defensive zone retrievals. The top four need to clean up their zone exits for the Lightning to find success moving up the ice.
Transition Running into Trouble
A less obvious problem on their hands is the struggle to transition up the ice. Specifically, Brayden Point was not his usual self in transition. He failed on five of his 12 zone entry attempts, the worst amongst the entire roster. His 58% success rate on zone entries isn’t cutting long-term for a player of his caliber. Moreover, Steven Stamkos failed on 50% of his zone entries against the Predators. He didn’t enter the zone on two of his four zone entry attempts. The top line failed on 36% of all zone entry attempts, the worst among any line.
The transition from the backend hasn’t been impressive either. Perbix is struggling to compete as a top-pairing defenceman to open the season. Every Lightning defenceman had a controlled zone exit percentage of 57% or better. Meanwhile, Perbix had a controlled zone exit percentage of 14.18%. He had three exit fails, plus three exits cleared off the glass and out. Tampa Bay must exit the zone with possession so their top line can find their game in transition. The Tampa Bay defencemen must be more active in the rush. The modern NHL defencemen can lead the attack. The defence failed to enter the zone on roughly 29% of their attempts, with six fails on 21 attempts. The Lightning need to limit the turnovers and zone entry failures moving forward.
Solutions Going Forward
The most concerning part is that the stats above are from the Lightning’s best game. Tampa Bay controlled 34.7% of the expected goal share on ice in their previous two games at 5v5. Moving Cernak back into the top four will stabilize the defence and limit the turnovers. Moving Perbix to the bottom pair with de Haan seems like the best short-term solution. Additionally, spread out the talent on forward. The Lightning have options in Conor Sheary and Brandon Hagel as the top-line left wing. Moving Stamkos to line two with Anthony Cirelli causes teams to match up differently defensively. The Lightning face off against the win-less Buffalo Sabres tonight. Hopefully, the club will find their way back on a winning track.
Main Photo: Detroit Free Press-USA TODAY Sports
