Last Word on Hockey’s Puck Drop Previews are back for the 2023-24 season! As the regular season approaches, Last Word will preview each team’s current outlook and stories to watch for the upcoming year. We’ll also do our best to project how things will go for each team throughout the campaign. Today, we’re previewing the 2023-24 Toronto Maple Leafs.
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2023-24 Toronto Maple Leafs
2022-23 Season
Last year was a year full of highs and lows for the Toronto Maple Leafs. The team was coming into what most thought was a make-or-break season. And the team acted the same way. All season long, the goal was clear. Playoff success. They added big names such as Ryan O’Reilly and Jake McCabe to bolster their depth at the deadline.
And in a way, the team found some of what they were hoping for. For the first time in two decades, the Leafs won a playoff series. However, spirits came crashing back down to Earth when they dropped the second-round series in five games to the Florida Panthers. So while the season was more successful than past ones, in the eyes of many it still wasn’t good enough.
2023 Offseason
For what felt like the third season in a row, almost everyone expected some major changes to the 2023-24 Toronto Maple Leafs roster. After yet another disappointing season everyone thought it was finally time for something to change. And in one way, they were correct. General Manager Kyle Dubas and the team parted ways after contract talks fell apart. Dubas took his talents to the Pittsburgh Penguins and long-time Calgary Flames general manager Brad Treliving was brought in.
However, that is where the core changes stopped. All of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, William Nylander, Morgan Rielly, T.J. Brodie, Ilya Samsonov, and Sheldon Keefe are returning. And while no one expected most of those players to go, the fact that every single one of them are back is surprising. Even someone like Brodie who isn’t considered part of the “core” but was tied to trade rumours all summer due to his cap hit and poor play in last year’s playoffs.
Despite the core looking the same, the group that surrounds them certainly looks different. Names such as O’Reilly, Luke Schenn, Michael Bunting, Alexander Kerfoot, Matt Murray and Justin Holl are out. Names such as Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi, Ryan Reaves, and John Klingberg have been brought in. The 2023-24 Toronto Maple Leafs will once again be taking a shot with the same key players, hoping different support will make a difference.
Lineup Projections
Forwards
Tyler Bertuzzi – Auston Matthews – Mitch Marner
Matthew Knies – John Tavares – Sam Lafferty
Nick Robertson – William Nylander – Max Domi
Calle Jarnkrok – David Kampf – Ryan Reaves
Extras: Dylan Gambrell, Pontus Holmberg, Noah Gregor
Top Six
Let’s get one thing very clear to start. This roster projection is only for opening night. In reality, Keefe will likely have the lines mixed up by the end of the first game. However, the Leafs have been trying Nylander at centre this preseason, so it seems likely enough that will continue. He may slide back up onto Tavares’s right wing though. If that is the case, Domi may slide to centre.
The top line will no doubt be a force again this year. Matthews and Marner are two of the most skilled players in the league, and Bertuzzi should be a perfect fit for them. Bertuzzi plays with an edge and isn’t afraid to go into the corners and battle for the puck. Guys like Bunting and Zach Hyman have found fits on that left wing before and Bertuzzi has a similar game with more skill than either of those two.
The second line will be very interesting. On paper, this is the weakest it has been in a while. To be honest, Nylander’s line could be considered the second line. If Tavares is going to centre this “second line” though, it will be crucial that Knies looks like he did in last year’s playoff run. He was dynamite on the ice and the Leafs are hoping that will carry over. It is also possible Domi or Nylander slide to that right-wing as Lafferty is more suited for a bottom-six role.
Bottom Six
Speaking of which, this bottom six will be interesting to monitor too. The line of Robertson – Nylander – Domi could possess an intriguing mix of skill, grit, and finish. Domi will play the chippy role who can get pucks in the offensive zone while Robertson will continue to carve out a role for himself. As for Nylander, we all know the skill is there. He is a magician in transition and is a dangerous offensive player. The biggest question will be if his two-way game can hold up over the course of a whole season. It may be fair to expect Keefe to use this line in an offensive role and the Tavares line as more of a defensive shutdown line.
The fourth line knows its identity. There isn’t a ton of skill on the fourth line, but they all play a role. Kampf is one of the better defensive centres in the league and Jarnkrok can be a nice fit to that who can add a little bit of scoring upside for a fourth-line role. And Ryan Reaves was brought in to cause chaos for other teams. He won’t be some kind of “enforcer,” but he will no doubt make his presence known with a big hit or even fight if he has to.
Both Gambrell and Holmburg are suitable extras. Gambrell isn’t an everyday player but if you need someone to play a few games on the fourth line while an injury occurs, there are worse options. Noah Gregor is on a PTO right now but may find himself a contract.
Defence
Morgan Rielly – T.J. Brodie
Jake McCabe – John Klingberg
Mark Giordano – Timothy Liljegren
Extras: Conor Timmins, William Lagesson.
Top Four
The defence still feels like a work in progress for the 2023-24 Toronto Maple Leafs. It seems likely a trade deadline target will be for the defence. However, to start the season this is what they have. Rielly had a rough regular season last year but looked amazing in the playoffs. The Leafs will be hoping his regular season was bad luck and injuries. On the other hand, they need to hope Brodie’s playoffs was a fluke. He looked out of place all playoffs long, which is surprising because he has quietly been one of the Leafs best defenders since being brought to Toronto.
McCabe was a deadline add last year and should be a perfect fit on the second pair. The huge question is Klingberg. Klingberg is one of the worst defenders in the entire league when it comes to his own zone. His skill is moving the puck and creating offence. But that can leave a lot to be desired when he actually has to defend. How he is used will be something to keep an eye on.
Bottom Pair
The 2023-24 Toronto Maple Leafs may be hoping that Liljegren is someone who can finally step up and take those top four minutes at 5v5 away from Klingberg. Allowing Klingberg to play more offensively in sheltered minutes. However, he needs to prove he can do that. Liljegren’s advanced stats have looked really good in a small role over the past season or so. But when he is required to take more of a role, mistakes start to pop up.
If he can take that next step, this defence core could be better than expected. Timmins was also supposed to challenge for a roster spot, but he has unfortunately suffered an injury that will keep him out for a while. He may be a depth option as the year goes on which they will likely want as Giordano is in his 40s now and probably shouldn’t be playing all 82 games if Toronto wants him at his best come playoff time.
Goalies
Ilya Samsonov
Samsonov and Woll were the pairing by the end of last season and Toronto decided to run them back. Samsonov had a solid year last season, taking the number-one spot by default from Murray. Toronto will be hoping for a similar year from Samsonov. They don’t need him to be a Vezina calibre goalie, just someone who gives their talented roster a chance to win every night. Average play from the goalies will put this team in a good spot to win.
Woll looked really impressive in his small sample size last year, including the playoffs. However, there is some risk in expecting that to just carry over for a longer stretch of time. Still, it seems like a good bet for this team to make considering his contract is cheap, which is of huge value. For insurance, they brought in Martin Jones just in case. It will be interesting to see if Jones makes it through waivers.
Players to Watch
Matthew Knies
Knies is going to be an X-Factor for this team. He has the potential to be one of the first prospects the team has brought up since the Nylander, Matthews, and Marner days that can make a difference. And they need him to be solid as well. This team’s depth looks a lot stronger if Knies can hold his own on the wing of John Tavares. He doesn’t need to be a star, but if he can play like he did last year where he forechecks hard, creates some offence, and helps in transition, that will be vital to this team. Nick Robertson is already a bit of a question on the left wing, so if Knies isn’t effective, this team may be in some trouble.
John Tavares
Tavares is our second pick for players to watch on the 2023-24 Toronto Maple Leafs because his play may also play a crucial role for this team. Tavares isn’t the all-star he once was. However, he still had a solid year for himself last season. Toronto needs him to continue to produce at a second-line rate for them to have success. Tavares had 80 points in 80 games last season, which not many people may have known.
Toronto just needs him to be in that ballpark again. They don’t need 40 goals or 100 points, but if Tavares can play with Knies and put up 30 goals and 70ish points, the team will likely be happy with that. Tavares just turned 33, which doesn’t mean he is going to fall off of a cliff. However, he is getting to the age where players start to slow down. The team desperately needs him to continue to be smart with the puck in his own end to allow other players on the team to drive the offence forward.
Prediction for the 2023-24 Toronto Maple Leafs
This is a team that has one goal in mind: Playoff Success. Anything short of an Eastern Conference Finals run will no doubt be seen as a failure. And for most fans, it may even be Stanley Cup or bust. With that being said, it will be a long season and that is important to remember. There is no reason this team shouldn’t be fighting for the division lead. Retirements and injuries have greatly reduced some of their top opponents and it remains to be seen if some of the younger upcoming teams are good enough to challenge the Leafs just yet.
It should be a fun year for Toronto fans. But one thing is for sure, playoff success is once again a must.
Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
