A Statistical Analytic Comparison of the Ottawa Senators Versus the Atlantic Division Defencemen

Ottawa Senator fans know all too well their defencemen are strong. We will go a step further, to say the entire Eastern Conference is, but for this analysis, we stick to the Atlantic division. In this study, we shall compare all the Atlantic division teams to decide just whose rearguards are the best going into 2023-24. We already know of all the stars patrolling the respective bluelines and there is no denying the level of talent. However, here we compare the teams, to try and determine the rankings of the eight team’s defence. Let’s take a look at some Ottawa Senators analytics and compare them to other Atlantic teams.

Ottawa Senators Analytics: Stacking Up vs the Atlantic Division

The Atlantic division is loaded with talented defensemen. Fresh on our mind, is the Ottawa Senators young stud, Jake Sanderson signing a $64 million deal. The division also contains award winners. Victor Hedman and Mark Giordano won the Norris Trophy as the league’s top defenceman in 2017-18 and 2018-19, respectively. In addition, we find in the Atlantic division the 2021-22 Calder winner as the league’s top rookie, Moritz Seider. Furthermore, Sanderson finished sixth in last year’s rankings. If we go back to 2018-19, Rasmus Dahlin was a member of the first all-rookie team, and third in Calder voting. One more to note, Brandon Montour is fresh off a breakout season. Last year, he finished fifth in league defencemen scoring and added a Stanley Cup final appearance.

A Review of the Top Pairs of the Atlantic Division Defence

Now we know some facts on the overall talent of the divisional defensive depth, let’s look at how to compare one another. To get a good picture of the more successful teams, let us analyze the top pairs. For this, our criteria were pretty loose, but did chose the pairings based largely on ice time. For example, Dahlin may have played more minutes with Mattias Samuelsson (673.0) but was more successful with Henri Jokiharju (232.4).

Along with ice time, we let moneypuck.com’s metric for xGoals % determine the top pairing. Therefore, we see the cream rise to the top. The category is led by Morgan Rielly and T.J. Brodie at 56.9. Meanwhile, Ottawa’s pairing of Thomas Chabot and Artem Zub are second (54.7) followed closely by the Panther’s Gustav Forsling and Montour (54.5). Conversely, we see the likes of the Sabres, Canadiens, and Red Wings lagging behind the other teams, and it begins to make sense.

How We Did Our Developed Our Analytics

The top pair will not reveal all the information so now it is on to our main statistical analysis. Here we look at several statistics of the current rostered defencemen, which was based on their 2022-23 numbers. Then, we applied weighted averages to account for the number of games played, the proportion of time on ice, and where the players are slotted.

For brevity, we will spare the reader the exact details. So, more weight was given to the top pairs, and less given to those outside the top six. Overall the Maple Leafs defence looks strong, especially from an analytic standpoint. They are top in points, second in point share (PS), and running away with CF% Rel at 1.27 (Montreal is second at -0.54). Their CF% Rel value is made all the more impressive based on the differential between power play and penalty kill time accumulated.

Digging in to Find the Cream of the Crop

The applicability of the information contained within the chart may not be obvious but is there if you look for it. For example, it may be difficult to highlight the Tampa Bay Lightning defence as noteworthy. However, they are a physical bunch with 119 average hits. Also, they tend to not turn the puck over (TG Diff), and they spend a high proportion of their time killing penalties versus on the power play (ST Diff). Spending a lot of time on the penalty kill, for example, does make it difficult to maintain a strong CF% Rel value.

So Where Does Ottawa Really Stack Up?

The Ottawa Senators defence through analytics definitely finds itself in the thick of things. When it comes to conversation for top bluelines in the division, the Senators’ defence cannot be left out of the conversation. If we consider their top pair, as Thomas Chabot and Artem Zub, they are highly regarded against their competition. Even still with the emergence of Jake Sanderson, and Jakob Chychrun there as well, their top pair designation is not even well defined. In this case, that is only a positive. As long as they can find the proper shutdown pair when required, they should be more than effective.

How Is Their Defence on a Whole Compare

On the other hand, when compared to the total defence roster, Ottawa still stacks up well. They block a lot of shots (112), and no slouches in the hitting (86) department either. They play the most power play time (96.1 not shown, but taken from ST Diff) according to our numbers. So, the coaches have a lot of confidence in them getting it done offensively when required. A nice problem to have, either Chabot, Sanderson, or Chychrun can man the top power play. It is an example of competition as a strength on the roster. Their total points rank them high as well, and Chabot in particular. He will look for a big offensive season with a deeper defence and less pressure falling on his shoulders.

There we have it, a review of statistical analytics for the Ottawa Senators’ defence and their Atlantic division foes. We did not provide a direct ranking, so we will leave that to the reader. To that point, it is no surprise that the Maple Leafs rank high analytically, given former General Manager Kyle Dubas’ comprehensive use of them. We discussed what makes the Lightning defence vaunted. Also, having a strong top unit, like the Panthers, can help lead a team.

One squad worth ending with is the Boston Bruins. You can tell by their ST Diff (-48.0), that they play tough minutes, killing penalties, and not getting the glam. However, they recorded the highest PS (5.2), so their hardnosed approach is seen analytically. The nice thing for Senator fans is they can take solace, in that in a tough division, they are still amongst the best.

Main photo: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports