Welcome back to Top Shelf Prospects, the column that brings you the next crop of professional hockey players. As we go through the summer of 2023, each day our LWOS Prospects Writers will bring you a look at one NHL team’s top prospects or other topical article. Be sure to bookmark the site, follow Ben Kerr, Kyle Pereira and Frederik Frandson on Twitter, and spread the word for the site that will bring you analytical and critical profiles and scouting reports! You can find all the articles here as well as our extensive NHL Draft preview. Today, we look at the 2023 Tampa Bay Lightning Top Prospects.
For those wondering, the cut-off for what is or isn’t a prospect is typically about 50 NHL games played (including playoff games) or is 25 years old. These are not hard or fast rules though, and we may make some exceptions depending on the circumstances.
2023 Tampa Bay Lightning Top Prospects
1.) Ethan Gauthier
Ethan Gauthier is one of very few Tampa Bay Lightning prospects taken within the first two rounds of an NHL draft. Being taken with the 37th overall selection in the most recent NHL draft, the 6’0” and 183 pound right winger is coming off of a solid QMJHL season with the Sherbrooke Phoenix (69 points in 66 games). This upcoming season, he will play with the Drummondville Voltigeurs, looking to take another step forward.
Gauthier plays a very strong, all-around game. While he doesn’t necessarily flash offensively, he does showcase a high-end IQ, limiting mistakes and keeping the play moving in the right direction. As for his play away from the puck, he gets to the dirty areas and focuses on the little things, similar to that of previous Lightning stars in Ondrej Palat and Alex Killorn. Additionally, he plays a very strong defensive game, able to match up against top competition and limit their effectiveness. While he may never be a true line-driver, he has the potential to play second-fiddle with some of the Lightning’s current stars down the line.
2.) Dylan Duke
In the 2021 NHL draft, the Lightning drafted Dylan Duke with their fourth round pick (126th overall). At the time, it was an excellent choice, praised by many who thought the diminutive Duke (5’10” and 181 pounds) had fallen too far. As a matter of fact, he was consistently in everyone’s top-100, with his lowest pre-draft ranking placed at 86th. It’s due to the fact his size, paired with his aggressive style of play may not translate at a higher level. And, similar to that of Howard, after one season in the NCAA, that question still remained. However, his second NCAA season proved he may have figured out his game, scoring 32 points in 41 games with the University of Michigan.
Duke needs to continue the momentum he has built from his sophomore season, while adding more to his skating. As for his offensive game, he continues to find space as a net-front player, with excellent anticipation to tip-in shots or close in quickly on rebounds. He certainly has a niche style in the offensive end, but he is a responsible player in his own end due to his undeniable work ethic. If he can grow his offensive game to be more than a net-front presence, he could prove to be an even bigger steal than anyone thought the day he was drafted.
3.) Niko Huuhtanen
Niko Huuhtanen was a seventh round draft choice (224th overall) in the 2021 NHL draft. In the two seasons since, he has proven 30 other NHL GM’s a bit silly having overlooked him. Maybe the Lightning have yet another late-round steal, in the ilk of the aforementioned Palat. The season he was drafted, he produced under a point-per-game in the U20 SM-Sarja in Finland (34 points in 37 games). The very next season, Huuhtanen came over to North America, playing in the WHL, scoring 77 points in 65 games. Last year, he made the choice to return to Finland, playing at the top men’s league for Jukurit. There, he posted 30 points in 48 games, an incredible feat for a 20-year-old kid.
Huuhtanen brings a lot to the table that is similar to that of Gauthier. He plays physical, and forechecks like his life depended on it. While Gauthier does get involved, Huuhtanen is larger (6’2” and 209 pounds) and can make a larger difference in the physical aspect of the game. Additionally, his offensive game flashes more potential, with one heck of a shot. Huuhtanen must improve the rest of his game, like his transitional abilities, skating, and defensive game. Improving in those aspects will only make it easier for him to carve out an NHL role.
4.) Isaac Howard
Isaac Howard, taken in the first round (31st overall) in 2022, certainly flashed on draft day. Claiming to be the best dressed, Lightning fans were all hoping he would flash just as good on the ice when he joined the University of Minnesota-Duluth the following season. In fact, it was anticipated, as he showed immense skill with the US National Team Development Program in his draft season. That year, he managed to produce 82 points in 60 games. He was considered a high upside, but high-risk, selection.
Well, the Lightning took the risk, and Howard’s first NCAA season did not go the way he wanted it to. So much so, he would transfer to Michigan State University for the upcoming season. Howard scored 17 points in 35 games, which isn’t exactly bad, but not what was expected of him. While his upside still remains, the questions about his ability to translate his fast-paced and aggressive offensive style remains. His defensive game isn’t quite good enough to let him get by with average production. Howard needs to find his game in the NCAA, or the “bust” in “boom or bust” becomes closer to reality.
5.) Jack Finley
Jack Finley, yet another forward in this list, is a centre, drafted in the second round (57th overall) in the 2020 NHL draft. Finley adds size to the Tampa Bay Lightning prospects pool, standing at 6’6” and 223 pounds. Following his draft year, Finley played just three total games in 2020-21 (two in the AHL, one in the WHL) with no points. But he would return to the ice at the WHL level in 2021-22, where he would split the season between the Spokane Chiefs and Winnipeg Ice. In total, he scored 50 points in 60 games. That was a step-down in production from two seasons prior, the year he was drafted, where he had 57 points in 61 games. But this past season, he would make the move to the AHL, where he would score an impressive 21 points in 67 games.
While the production certainly doesn’t jump off the page by any means, it’s how he managed to produce well in his rookie AHL season that instills hope. With his size and two-way responsible style, and ever-growing offensive confidence, Finley still has NHL upside. Where he lands on the roster once he makes it, if he makes it with Tampa Bay, is a tough guess. The team has Cirelli and Point manning the top-six, plus Nicholas Paul can play on the third line centre spot. Yet, teams can never have enough centres.
6.) Jack Thompson
The top defensive prospect in the Tampa Bay Lightning prospects pipeline, Thompson was drafted in the third round (93rd overall) in the 2020 NHL draft. Similar to Finley, COVID threw a wrench in the season following his draft selection. Thompson wound up playing in the HockeyEttan league in Sweden, scoring 18 points in 18 games from the blueline. He also would play one game in the AHL, where he would have an assist, finishing his season as an overall point-per-game player. Returning to the OHL, Thompson would be named captain of the Sudbury Wolves, before being dealt to the Soo Greyhounds. He would total 57 points in 65 games, a strong production line for a defender yet again. Then, last season, he would join Finley in the AHL, where he scored 23 points in 71 games.
Thompson is a puck-moving defender, with the upside to truly be a difference-maker in the offensive end if he continues to take strides in the right direction. His shot jumps off the page, which allows him to be a threat from the point with the puck on his stick. But it’s also how he thinks the game, he processes the game quickly and makes mostly positive decisions consistently with the puck. Perhaps the best development from his season in the AHL, however, is his growth in his own end. With the Lightning losing some names as cap casualties, such as Ryan McDonagh or Jan Rutta, there’s a chance he challenges for a spot sooner rather than later, a la Nicklaus Perbix.
7.) Daniil Pylenkov
Finally, a second defenceman in the top-10! This time, it’s Pylenkov, who was drafted in the seventh round (196th overall) in the 2021 NHL draft. In his draft year, he had played 54 KHL games, scoring 19 points from the back-end, which is huge experience to have, playing against men in Russia. He had also played 48 KHL games the season prior as well. The year after being drafted, Pylenkov would play 43 KHL games, where he would score 11 points. Then, last season, he had a bit of a breakout. Playing between two teams (SKA St. Petersburg and Severstal Cherepovets) he would score 21 points in 40 games. So far this season, he has one assist in three games.
However, similar to Goncalves, he was an overager. As a matter of fact, it was his third year of eligibility before finally being taken. Pylenkov was always solid in his own end, being a physical presence and not shying away from playing heavy, using his 6’1” and 194 pound frame. But in his last KHL season, he took a big step forward with Severstal, thanks to a larger role giving him more confidence. He proved he is a good puck-mover and can put up points offensively, though he may never really flash there. Pylenkov is signed until the end of the 2024-25 season in Russia, meaning he still has this season and next before he could make the move to North America. It isn’t guaranteed, but if he does, his experience against men could give him a leg up on other AHL competition.
8.) Lucas Edmonds
Edmonds, yet another overager that the Lightning added, was drafted in the third round (86th overall) in the 2022 draft. That came after he posted 113 points in 68 games as a 20-year-old in his first season in the WHL. The following season, he was eligible to play in the AHL, and he did. Playing 49 games with the Crunch, he managed to post 27 points, a decent statline.
Edmonds is an incredibly smart player, both with and without the puck. Before coming to the WHL, he had played a handful of games against men in both the Allsvenskan and SHL in Sweden. He is solid in all three zones, but in the offensive zone, he is meticulous. He may not be a dynamic playmaker, and he may not possess a threatening shot, but he plays with a strong pace. Edmonds won’t wow anyone, but he plays efficiently, with no wasted space, and has enough in the way of puck skills and skating to get out of tight spots.
He must grow more over the next season to truly get a crack at the NHL, but he was, and still is, a really decent bet to play some NHL games. He joins multiple players in the Tampa Bay Lightning prospects pool as a guy who maybe isn’t a star, but will play NHL games.
9.) Eamon Powell
Just the third defender on this list, Powell is also the smallest (5’11” and 172 pounds). Drafted in the fourth round (116th overall) in the 2020 draft, he was similar to that of Duke; taken later than most expected. Powell was consistently ranked in the top-80, including a top-50 ranking by McKeen’s hockey. That said, he was a strong bet at the spot they managed to get him at. Unfortunately, his first two NCAA seasons did not go as planned. As a freshman, he scored 14 points in 24 games. Then, he only managed nine points in 38 games as a sophomore, taking a step in the wrong direction. Last season, he would bounce back. In 36 games, he put up 22 points.
Powell’s development with point production this past season is a bright one. Why? Because his bread-and-butter, despite his size, is shutting down his opponents. His abilities in his own end are strong, as he out-smarts almost everyone. Powell anticipates plays so well, it’s clear he has the hockey IQ to be an NHL player. If he was taller, he’d probably get more respect from fans outside of Tampa Bay. But now, with a step forward with offensive abilities in the form of a new career-high, a senior season like that or better could see him as a sneaky NHL defender soon thereafter. It’s a long shot, but never say never.
10.) Gage Goncalves
Right back to forwards, it’s another diminutive player with a ridiculous motor in Goncalves. Drafted as an overager in the second round (62nd overall) in the 2020 draft, he wasn’t as impacted by the COVID-impacted season of 2020-21 as the aforementioned 2020 draft picks. He would play two AHL games (one point) and 23 WHL games, where he dominated with 34 points. That would be his last WHL season, due to aging out, and he would join the Syracuse Crunch. In his first season, he produced a solid 32 points in 70 games. But this season is where he truly made a statement. Playing 71 AHL games, he scored 54 points, taking a big step forward.
One of the biggest concerns with Goncalves was his skating, especially because he was drafted as an overager. That meant he had less time to work on those skills than about 90% of the rest of the guys drafted alongside him. Yet, he has improved drastically, and that has allowed him to take even bigger strides in his offensive game. He forechecks relentlessly, attacks the middle like his life depended on it, and still makes smart decisions with the puck when he isn’t going full throttle. Not only has his offensive game improved, but his defensive game is still very solid, and again, it’s due to that relentless attack that he provides. He simply does not quit and will out-work every other player on the ice with him.
HM (Round 4 or Later): Cole Koepke
Cole Koepke, drafted in the sixth round (183rd overall) back in 2018, just barely makes the list. At 25 years old, Koepke’s chances of proving he is an NHL caliber player is running out. After being drafted, he would play three seasons in the NCAA with the University of Minnesota-Duluth. He totalled 75 points across 104 games, improving his production each season. Then, in 2021-22, he had a solid AHL rookie season, with 39 points in 69 games. An impressive training camp in the following offseason after that rookie season earned him an NHL shot. However, it only lasted 17 games, and he scored just one point (a goal). Sent back down to the AHL, Koepke would struggle, scoring just 19 points in 52 games.
Koepke gets the nod here due to the fact he did play in the NHL last season. While it was an unimpressive 17 games, it didn’t go without some underlying success. He had a zone entry percentage of 46.15% on 39 attempts, with a dump in on 37% of those. Koepke also held a zone exit percentage of 72.22% on 18 attempts, and on 19 total defensive zone touches, did not turn the puck over once. Offensively, he fired four shots on net, with two being scoring chances, while setting up just one shot for a teammate that did not turn into a scoring chance.* That’s where the struggles lied, he failed to generate chances. If Koepke can bounce back, he could challenge one last time for a roster spot.
In The System
The Tampa Bay Lightning prospects list seems very lacking. They were ranked 31st by The Athletic, and it’s no wonder why. They have dominated for several years, winning two Cups and seeing four Cup finals since 2015. That being said, there are still some intriguing prospects not mentioned on this list. First, starting with young players who already graduated to the NHL, the Lightning have Mikhail Sergachev and Perbix. Another name that didn’t make this list is Hugo Alnefelt. A goalie who came with some strong expectations but hasn’t quite lived up to them just yet.
Some lesser known prospects who just missed out on this list includes Jayson Shaugabay, Waltteri Merela, Emil Martinsen Lilleberg, Maxwell Crozier, Declan Carlile, Roman Schmidt, Maxim Groshev, and Jaydon Dureau. While the list certainly is less than impressive, as are the supporting cast that just missed out. However, the Lightning core is built to win now. The Tampa Bay Lightning prospects pool has enough in the way of supplemental depth down the line.
*All tracked stats for Koepke were at even-strength, and across seven tracked games. These stats were tracked by Kyle Pereira.
Main Photo: Anne-Marie Sorvin-USA TODAY Sports
