The Ottawa Senators roster depth on forward will be a point of debate as the 2023-24 season kick-offs. There are a few veterans sprinkled in, but for the most part, it is a battle of prospects. One intriguing question that Senator fans will wonder is whether or not the skill level of those players is there for the club to be successful. One advantage is that youthfulness should be a positive, and will enable players to push one another. Perhaps the primary concern, especially amongst the fourth liners, is whether they can be relied upon in critical, defensive, late-game situations.
The Ottawa Senators Roster Depth Took a Hit on Forward From 2023-24
Coming into 2023-24, the Ottawa Senators roster depth at forward sees its biggest turnover. The bottom-six group is going to be much changed. Gone are the likes of Julien Gauthier, Patrick Brown, Dylan Gambrell, and Austin Watson. Maybe not all household names, but all guys that got a regular shift at some point throughout the 2022-23 campaign. Derick Brassard is another free agent who remains unsigned and whose future is uncertain.
How Do Injuries Really Impact a Roster’s Depth
One topic that will surely be impacted by the forward group of the Ottawa Senators roster depth is injuries. It is fair to assume that the injury aspect with affect 10-20% of the roster. We can assume that this number is fairly spread out when you consider frequencies and unique players. If you think the law of averages from the empirical distribution theory, and over the long run it should be a fair assumption.
For example, you will lose approximately 10-20% of your players, 10-20% of the time, or thereabouts. You may lose a player or two for 80% of your games, and you will likely have 90% of your players miss 10% of the games. Some will be gone for extended periods, and some shorter stints. What it boils down to, is that on any given night you need to fill two to three roster spots. Once you get down to the bottom of your roster, like the third or fourth line, there will be a trickle-down effect.
An Example of What Is Valued Analytically
One case study worth presenting as an example is the Toronto Maple Leafs and their previous (inexperienced) General Manager Kyle Dubas. Now it is obviously difficult to reverse engineer his analytic models. However, there is one aspect worth noting. It seems, for whatever reason, that Dubas (over) valued players who do not miss a lot of time. Some examples of targets were John Tavares, Jason Spezza, Ryan O’Reilly, and Jake Muzzin. Even from the previous Lou Lamoriello regime, Patrick Marleau.
One common theme with these players is in the past, they had gone multiple seasons without missing much time from injury. Of course, before being targeted by the Leafs. Why we are mentioning the potential overvalue part, is they have seen costly injuries amongst these types of players. Regardless of whether it is something Dubas factors in specifically, it is worth considering. A lot of metrics are boosted by a player’s total time spent on ice (i.e. PPG translating to total points, WAR, power play opportunities, offensive point share (OPS), etc.).
What Are the Issues Facing the Senators?
So far we have discussed the changes the Sens have had, the odds the bottom-six rotates, and potential impacts, but what about their current roster? Interestingly enough, since the Vladimir Tarasenko signing, they have arrived at a new problem for the team. That problem being, and one the new owner, Michael Andlauer, ultimately supports, being a cap team. Moreover, this is not necessarily a bad thing, but it has the difficulty of requiring some tricky maneuvering at times. Not to make an issue of that, but the Senators are still yet to sign two key RFAs upfront. Those players are Shane Pinto and Egor Sokolov. In particular Pinto, but given his status also Sokolov, these players will likely be a significant part of the third and fourth lines. Pinto is quite likely the third-line centre assuming a full lineup, and Sokolov is fighting for a fourth-line role.
The Waiver Exempt Wire
The fact that Pinto and Sokolov have a leg up based purely on their contract, one consideration will be who can be sent down. Therefore, General Manager Pierre Dorion will be valuing his roster that can be sent down to Belleville without having to clear waivers. Much like a free agent’s restrictions, the ability to be sent down has similar criteria. Case in point, it is dependent on age when signed first NHL contract, number of games played after signing, and number of years in the league. Thus, some notable players qualifying for the waiver-exempt status are Ridly Greig, Roby Jarventie, Angus Crookshank, Zack Ostapchuk, Tyler Kleven, Oskar Pettersson, and Cole Reinhardt. These players will be crucial in allowing Dorion to navigate the murky waters of salary cap limitations.
Who’s In
Now when you review their current roster, there definitely is suitable skill for the third and fourth line. Mark Kastelic is the perfect fourth-line centre. He is very well-rounded and can be reliable with limited ice time as a young player. Furthermore, newcomer Dominik Kubalik looks to fit nicely alongside Pinto on the left side of the third line. Another player that is unable to be sent down, but sufficiently reliable in a fourth-line role, is Zack MacEwen. If you know the Sens roster, you are thinking that things are getting tight. We still have not mentioned Mathieu Joseph or Parker Kelly, who will make the team, or they risk being lost on waivers.
Ultimately, it appears this is where the injury factor will be crucial. With the Sens against the cap, they just can’t have these players sit in the booth. Here we recognize the difficulty of the business side of the game.
In the end, it does appear the Senators are okay with skill amongst the bottom-six. Names like Kastelic, Pinto, and Kubalik ensure that fact holds. However, with the Sens against the cap, you really do see the business side of the sport impact the players. If the veterans are not performing, and the prospects show hustle and results, they will play. Make no mistake, this makes for great pressure, and these are professional athletes who thrive under those circumstances. Maybe not at the start of the season, but it will early, and we will see who contributes to winning. Those are the players whether it is a prospect like Greig or a veteran like MacEwen, who will play a regular shift and have a solid season.
Main photo: Marc DesRosiers-USA TODAY Sports
