The Tampa Bay Lightning witnessed the emergence of an all-star defenceman during the 2023-24 season. Lightning defenceman Mikhail Sergachev became a top-pairing defender, recording 64 points in 79 games. Sergachev is entering his 8-year, $68 million contract’s first season. Furthermore, with the salary cap expected to rise and his productive season, this contract can turn into a legitimate bargain.
Analyzing Mikhail Sergachev
Analyzing statistics without comparison is unproductive. Let’s compare how Tampa Bay Lightning defensemen Mikhail Sergachev’s production lined up with the top defenceman in the NHL:
- Points: 64 (12th)
- Primary Assists: 27 (9th)
- 5v5 Points: 29 (T-10th)
- 5v5 Primary Assists: 14 (T-4th)
- PP Points: 25 (12th)
- PP Primary Assists: 10 (T-9th)
Sergachev produced as a borderline top-ten defenceman in 2023. His reps with the top powerplay unit clicked. Additionally, he was very effective at even strength. Sergachev shattered a previous career-high 40 points in 79 games (2017-18). Sergachev placed his foot in the door to rival Victor Hedman for the number one defenceman title on the roster. Hedman turns 33 in December and recorded 49 points in 76 games last season. Sergachev has a lot of hidden tools in his arsenal to take a full-time number-one role for next season.
Sergachev’s Passing Strength
Lightning defensemen Mikhail Sergachev’s best attribute is his puck-moving skill set. Corey Sjanzder grades Sergachev in the elite of passing stats (All Three Zones micro-stats tracking project). Sergachev was in the 98th percentile of shot assists in 2023. In addition, he ranked in the 1ooth percentile of chance assists amongst defencemen. Equally, Micah Blake McCurdy brands Sergachev as a first-class passer (HockeyViz).
McCurdy created a statistic called setting in his Magnus 6 expected goals model. In other words, setting measures how well a player can make a specific type of pass. McCurdy is measuring shot assists, passes that generate direct shot attempts. For more information on setting, check out McCurdy’s Magnus 6 write-up. Sergachev rated 11% better than the league average defencemen at generating precise shot assists for his teammates.
Centre Lane Shots and Passes
Specifically, Sergachev is best from the middle of the ice. He graded in the 100th percentile of passes from the center lane. These are passes from the middle of the ice to the outside boards. Sergachev is most dangerous in the middle of the ice because of his ability to walk to the blue line. He uses powerful crossovers to accelerate across the blueline at top speed, where he can fire a heat seeker of a shot or dish the puck to teammates. Sergachev is tactical with his shot placement, allowing the Lightning to score more goals.
Even more, Sergachev uses his excellent shot not just to score himself. He’s one of the best defencemen at shooting for deflections. Two Tampa Bay players are in front of the net to create traffic. The other three players on the ice form an umbrella at the top. Sergachev ranked in the 98th percentile of deflection assists amongst defencemen last season. Simultaneously, Sergachev has hidden tools on both sides of the puck incorporated into his game.
Brick Wall Rush Defence
Defence is not the first attribute associated with Sergachev’s scouting report. However, he’s a brick wall at defending the rush. Rush defence statistics can be very subjective to the team system. Sergachev is unique at defending the rush. For instance, Sergachev is very aggressive at the blue line. He gets targeted on zone entries by attacking teams and gives up entries. Yet, he’s able to shut down all the targets he faces.
Sergachev graded in the 84th percentile of zone entry denials amongst defencemen. Moreover, he placed in the 90th percentile of zone entry denial percentage. Sergachev’s defensive zone coverage can use improvement. Yet, it’s by no means a concern moving forward.
What To Expect Next Season
It was only a matter of time before Sergachev broke out into a star. The 25-year-old will continue to rival Hedman for top powerplay minutes. Tampa Bay has a good problem with two true number-one defencemen on the roster. Sergachev can produce 70 points next season for the Lightning with a powerplay opportunity. He’s erasing all doubts about the 8-year contract he earned last summer.
Main Photo: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
