The Florida Panthers and Toronto Maple Leafs series is currently sitting at 3-0 Florida. Not something many would have guessed heading in, especially after the Leafs finally slayed the dragon and moved on past round one. However, round two has been an absolute disaster for the team. They dropped both games at home, despite not playing that badly. And then, with their backs against the wall, dropped Game 3. The Toronto Maple Leafs series and playoff hopes are now in jeopardy, and it is thanks to some key mistakes from key players.
Toronto Maple Leafs Series of Woes
Games 1 and 2
The first two games at home saw the Toronto Maple Leafs come out flying in both. Outshooting Florida 36-28 and 37-29 in each respective game, to say Toronto played bad would be a drastic overstatement. However, despite their play, they didn’t come away with a single win. Why? Key mistakes. Yes, Sergei Bobrovsky has dialled back the clock which hasn’t helped, but the fact of the matter was, Toronto’s top players made mistakes and Florida’s top players capitalized on them.
The game-winner in Game 1 was a 3-on-2 for Toronto that led to a breakaway for the Panthers back the other way. Yes, these plays happen, but when you have your “defensive” line featuring Ryan O’Reilly as well as Jake McCabe and T.J. Brodie on the ice? You don’t expect all three players to make questionable pinches leading to a break the other way.
However, Game 2 was the real eye-opener. The Leafs absolutely dominated the first period. They got on the board early and all signs pointed to a possibility of repeating what they did in Game 2 of round one. However, they come out of the first with a 2-1 lead, and instead of keeping that momentum, they make three of the worst plays this series has seen.
Turnovers Kill
To start the second period of Game 2, William Nylander turns the puck over in his own end trying to do too much, and it heads back into the net for a 2-2 game. Now, Nylander has been electric outside of this play, and was honestly one of the only Leaf players who looked engaged for most of Game 3. But this turnover just can’t happen, especially when you are not getting the chances at the other end to go in.
However, that was not the end of Toronto’s troubles. Even worse? This.
Gustav Forsling gives Florida the lead pic.twitter.com/1O7BjnbB5D
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) May 5, 2023
Instead of making the simple clear, Mitch Marner makes a drop pass in his own end with pressure to Auston Matthews. Matthews, almost unaware of why he has the puck, does something we rarely ever see him do: Panic. Matthews then tries a horrid flip and the puck goes back the other way and in the net. 3-2. That would be the game-winner.
You just can’t have your top forwards doing that in the playoffs. It will kill you every time. Have the Panthers top players been perfect? Of course not! But they haven’t attempted anything like that, and it is a reason this Toronto Maple Leafs series is 3-0.
Matthews
Key players making key mistakes. That is what this series has come down to. Yes, we highlighted the turnover in Game 2. But what is more concerning is how Toronto followed the game up. In Game 3, almost all of their key players were invisible. Matthews had two shots, and looked pedestrian in the offensive zone for most of the game. He had a couple of solid takeaways defensively but in transition? It was more of the same.
Not that the result was his fault, but when Luke Schenn laid out and ended up taking Ilya Samsonov out of the game, that play started with a Matthews turnover in the neutral zone. Again, everyone always talks about how important the small details are, and at this point, they don’t seem to be happening.
Carter Verhaeghe ties it for the Panthers again pic.twitter.com/IYxw8JuTO0
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) May 8, 2023
On the game-winning goal in Game 3? A tough deflection, but almost no effort to box his man out front of the net. Yes, some of this is nitpicking. But this is the Franchise Centreman for a team with Cup aspirations. The details matter.
Marner
Things go from bad to worse when talking about Marner’s game. Matthews has looked like himself at times this series, but has had some bad luck. Mitch Marner looks like a ghost out there compared to what we saw in the regular season. According to MoneyPuck, his xGF% has been 31%, 75%, and 25% in the three games so far. Games 1 and 3 rank as the second-worst and worst among all skaters respectively.
His highest individual expected goals total in a game this series has been 0.40. Nylander, John Tavares, Matthews, Matthew Knies, O’Reilly, Alexander Kerfoot, and David Kampf have all posted better than that in at least one game, most of those names in multiple.
Again, for a player who demanded to be paid and treated like a superstar, and performed that way in the regular season, it just isn’t enough. You can’t cut the skill completely out of the game, but there needs to be times when the game is simplified.
similar behind-the-net play, led right to a chance for Florida pic.twitter.com/qshJKQ8QAl
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) May 7, 2023
Plays like above are happening much too often in all three zones when Marner has the puck on his stick. Yes, they look glorious when they work. But in the playoffs, they more often than not will cost you a goal if they don’t.
Not Just Matthews/Marner
The reality is, while Matthews and Marner need to pull their weight if this Toronto Maple Leafs series is going to turn around, everyone is going to need to cut the mistakes out. Brodie has been caught multiple times, as has the whole Leafs defence core when it comes to long stretch passes. And while we are at the “Blame Game” Sheldon Keefe needs to start making some adjustments as well. It is clear the Florida speed and forecheck is causing issues, it is on the coach to try and fix it.
The Florida Panthers will now have four shots to move onto the Eastern Conference Finals. While the Leafs, need to be perfect. It seems reasonable to expect what the outcome of this series will be, but if the Leafs can cut out the key mistakes that have plagued them thus far, they still do have a chance.
Main Photo: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
