The second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is underway, and one of the biggest battles will be between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Edmonton Oilers. Top two in the Pacific Division in the regular season, this series has all the makings of a classic. There’s star power on both sides, a bit of history from a few close games during the regular season, and at the end of the day, two really good hockey teams going toe-to-toe. The matchup has been highly anticipated and promises to live up to the hype. Here is a preview of the Golden Knights vs Oilers series.
Golden Knights vs Oilers Second Round Preview
Depth versus Star Power
The biggest key in the Golden Knights vs Oilers series is the rosters. Vegas and Edmonton have some of the sport’s biggest stars. Jack Eichel and Mark Stone lead the way for Vegas, while Connor McDavid and Leon Draisatl are the league’s best one-two punch. However, Vegas relies more on their overall depth, while McDavid and Draisaitl carry most of the load for Edmonton.
The Oilers have two generational talents in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. No players have been more dominant in recent memory, with McDavid hitting 150 points during the regular season. The two stars are better when they play on the same line, becoming even more dominant than they already are. However, it weakens the overall top six, with the second line of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nick Bjugstad, and Zach Hyman becoming less effective. In their series against the Kings, McDavid and Draisaitl produced enough to make the loss minimal, but it could create a problem if Vegas can more efficiently contain the two than the Kings did.
Vegas has one of the most balanced distributions of offence in the NHL. No player scored more than 28 goals on the season, but twelve players were in the double-digits. It means that Vegas runs four strong lines, with genuine offensive potential on each of them. Crucially, there will be someone to run against McDavid and Draisaitl no matter what combination the Oilers decide to go with. If the two are on the same line, Mark Stone and Chandler Stephenson will handle most of the minutes. If the Oilers split them up, they’ll go up against Jack Eichel, Jonathan Marchessault, or William Karlsson. The Golden Knights have options and will have to force Edmonton to make adjustments and limit their scoring opportunities.
Offence versus Defence
One thing to watch for in the Golden Knights vs Oilers series is offence vs defence. These two teams games’ are on the opposite end of the spectrum. On the one hand, Edmonton generates the most offence of anyone in the league. They rely on the production from their stars to carry them, winning on pure talent. Vegas is much stronger defensively and doesn’t allow the kinds of chances that the Oilers do. It makes the series a tough one to predict, as the strengths of each side offset each other. One thing to keep an eye on will be Vegas’ blue line. Both Brayden McNabb and Shea Theodore missed Game 5 of Round 1. Both are expected to be available for Game 1 of this series but might be on limited minutes.
Special Teams Battle
This series is going to come down to who wins the special teams battle. The power play has been a particularly decisive factor these playoffs. 27.2% of all goals in Round 1 (minus Game 7 between New Jersey and New York) were scored on the man advantage. It’s been the Oilers’ biggest strength all season, and one of Vegas’ biggest weaknesses. It could end up being the difference between a Western Conference Final appearance and hitting the golf course early.
The Oilers are the best in the league on the power play, with a ridiculous 32.4% conversion rate, and an even more ridiculous 56.3% in the playoffs. Draisaitl and McDavid led the league in power-play goals during the regular season, and have continued their dominance in the playoffs. However, their penalty kill is less formidable, allowing 64 power-play goals through the regular season. Vegas’s numbers are decidedly less impressive. They converted on 20.3% of their power play opportunities, and a penalty-kill rate of 77.4%, good for the middle of the league in both instances. Special teams have been even worse in the playoffs, with a dismal 18.8% conversion rate. Edmonton has already had success on the power play during the regular season against Vegas. 27.8% of Edmonton’s goals during their regular season series were scored with the advantage.
So What Gives?
First, most obviously, a huge key will be staying out of the box. Vegas had the fewest penalty minutes in the league in the regular season, which already puts them at an advantage. They’ll need a plan if they can’t keep the game clean. Much of Edmonton’s domination comes from their offensive zone time.
Draisaitl wins about 65% of his offensive zone draws on the power play, meaning that Edmonton gets possession of the puck faster. From there, they can capitalize on the speed and accuracy of their passing, especially on the first unit. Edmonton averages about 46 seconds of offensive zone time per power play, the best in the league, and turns it over at a much lower rate than most other teams in the league. If Vegas can figure out how to even disrupt the Oilers’ zone time, they’ll be in a good position to mitigate the effectiveness of the man advantage. Vegas’s strong forecheck and ability to block shots should help them here.
Series Prediction: Vegas Wins in Seven
This one’s going to seven. There’s simply no other outcome for these two teams. If Vegas can limit McDavid and Draisaitl, even a little bit, they have a better chance of coming out on top. Their weaknesses are less game-breaking, and they have more opportunities to correct if they get off. If they can’t slow down the Dream Team, it’ll be Edmonton’s Cup to lose.
Main Photo: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
